Election Betting

Sport
81

I think Deasy will top the poll.

82

I have thrown everything possible in Powers & Boyles accounts on P O’Donovan for Limerick County. Not a bet but a quick investment dividend of an average 29%

Powers did not restrict but Boyles did so.

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83

If, as is suggested in some quarters, FF/FG do not enter a formal coalition but rather it’s a FG minority gov then the tanaiste markets might be interesting. Betfair showing Frances Fitz, Leo and Coveney at 8, 15 and 19 respectively.

Similarly, if FF/SF/Lab could cobble together enough votes is Gerry Adams at 51 an attractive long-shot price?

84

Going to do an accumulator tonight.

I think the following are all certs.
O’Donovan, Patrick - Limerick County at 2/7
Murphy, Dara - Cork North Central at 2/9
O’Dowd, Fergus - Louth at 1/5.

Mattie McGrath worth a punt at 10/11?

85

Can’t do an accumulator as far as I know. They are considered related events

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86

Paddy Power are going 5/4 for under 35.5 seats for “Others”.

“Others” means anybody outside of Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, Labour and the Green Party. Note that the Ceann Comhairle is classed as part of “Others” for the purposes of the bet.

My predictions have “Others” coming in at 31 seats (including the Ceann Comhairle) and even then I wouldn’t be sure of some of those getting in, although Renua might get a couple of seats to push the total closer to the threshold.

I think there will be a lot of vote splitting amongst Independents and that will keep their seat total well below their poll ratings.

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87

The word on the street is that Mike Mac @ 3/1 will get elected for Clare.

88

+1 non-transferrable vote

89

Informative rating. Cheers pal.

90

@TreatyStones @Julio_Geordio What’s the word out that way on O’Donovan v Neville Jnr v O’Brien? Collins is in and i guess Beefy won’t make it so it’s a three way shoot out for two seats between these boys. I have O’Donovan getting more than the two boys, getting more than Neville Jnr anyway, so how is he 1/3 in the bookies? Is it buying money? He started off 1/25 a few short weeks ago. You’d want to put good money on him to make it worthwhile but is 1200 to win 400 for example really a big risk here?

91

O’Brien seems to have a serious machine behind him. I’d say Neville will miss out.

@ciarancareyshurlingarmy seems to believe it’s buying money anyway. Not sure you’d get anything like 1200 on though? CCHA might be able to better answer that.

92

You need a few accounts to get the money on, same as anything else.

He will get in. He is the stronger FG candidate and geography is in his favour. There is a certain FG seat here.

93

What geography has he in his favour? Where is his biggest likely first pref vote? Collins has the west areas round Abbeyfeale wrapped up which you’d think eats into Nevilles first pref vote.

@Julio_Geordio You’d get that money on and more no problem, but you’d need to hit a few shops. They wouldn’t turn away a 450 to win 150 for example, so if you did that three times… Though i only know of that one Boyles shop on William Street.

94

I love the fact that betting on an election is considered a sport on TFK

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95

FG geography.he is Newcastlewest and has a free run to the south. Neville is askeaton, alongside O’Brien in kildomo/Pallas.

Collins is not as relevant

96

Did paddy power stop bet s on the elac t ion last night

97

Meh. From what I’ve seen O’Brien is the main man in the area.

98

Yes, that is the problem for Neville with his Askeaton base.

99

Sure his auld lad never raised his head above the parapet at all. That said I can’t remember the last decent politician we had out our side.

100

1/3 on O’Donovan is free money.
FG will 100% get a seat and it will take some very bizarre voting patterns for Neville to get it ahead of O’Donovan.

I’m still unsure as how O’Brien will poll outside of the N69 pocket. He’ll do well in Adare and probably all along the N69 but no idea how he will do outside of that. Heffernan had 8,000 first preference the last time around.
Now he is gone from Labour and the bounce I’d expect the SD candidates to get from having Donnelly at the helm, I think he could poll well again this time.

O’Brien isn’t universally liked around west Limerick and I believe he had a very tough time of it at a huge anti-gasification meeting in Shanagolden last week and word from the area is that he has a lot of votes back in that region.

You seem to be out the Pallasgreen direction, has O’Brien been getting much traction out that direction?

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