Presumably you canāt get much down on Willie OāDea. Pretty much guaranteed 5% return in 3 weeks
Apparently there is a push in Carlow to āvote Carlow ā. A not insignificant chunk of the Kilkenny electorate has been deposed into Tipperary north so that may work to some of the Carlow candidates advantage.
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Grealish will get in but Noel Thomas being in the race surely dampens the ease of his election.
Conversely Grealishās presence as a big beast surely means Thomas canāt get a seat?
Thomas is on the more explicit end of the headbanger scale in that heās basically defended setting a place on fire. Grealish is the on the sleveen say little enough to plausibly deny heās a headbanger end of things. There canāt be seats for both, surely.
Iām really enjoying Yatesyās podcashts on each constituency.
Heāll drive the woke brigade demented with his lassie jibes at all the female candidates.
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Alan Dillon in Mayo will get an absolutely massive vote I think. Close to the highest vote in Ireland. Heās been seen to be effective and diligent at Oireachtas committee meetings, he was targetted by the Burkes and came across well in the clip that did the rounds, Enda Kenny and Michael Ring who were massive vote getters are off the scene, his opponents are either low profile (non-FF) or seen as fairly gobshitey (two FFers). And he played for Mayo for years.
Heās only 1/10 to get a seat which is both a bettable price and absolute bet the house territory. Itās buying money.
Is there odds on the highest vote getter in the country?
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There usually is closer to the time.
I think the final seat in Limerick is the only one not locked down. It looks like Daly v Ryan but Iāve a strange feeling the hospital woman will be in with a shout. Not sure how sheāll do on transfers but I think sheāll still be in the hunt longer than LAB/Green/SD
Mary Fitzpatrick at 8/1 for a seat in Dublin Central seems ridiculously high given she only just missed out last time.
People would want their head examined voting for Kieran OāDonnell.
They wouldnāt allow you do an accumulator with the likes of himself Willie o dea and a few more in it I presume?
I was listening online yesterday to the debate on 95FM with Fahy, Daly and Ryan and caught the bit about UHL. Dee Ryan had a couple of pre rehearsed responses which would have sounded good if a little mechanical. The other two were a bit more off the cuff and didnāt come across as well. I think sheāll nick the final seat. Must have a look at the odds later on.
Limerick has only ever had two female TDs. Might be time for another
Will the wine moms mobilise for her? Daly will transfer very well on the northside and most men will give him a good transfer across the city ā¦ Frankie is a gas man after all. A fine rubby and soccer player.
Iām not sure Dee transfers as well but youāll have upwardly mobile types who wouldnāt go near a ruffian like Daly.
I donāt have my ear to the ground these days but this is a classic Limerick city duke em out between local working class hero with a communitarian outlook, versus the professional class with a mĆ© fein outlook. Itās essentially a battle for the soul of the city.
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Dee must have remembered her lines from the mayoral election.
Probably very few of the candidates have a genuine conviction about anything so they would want to get a move on with the prepared soundbites.
Does frankie get out and bang on doors much? Does Dee? Thats your answer i feel. Never underestimate the power of someone calling to your door (not talking about neughbourhood teens here).
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Frankie is your man here. Heās a regular across the city at any and all events , wearing one of his two suits - with tie half open and shirt hanging out of his pants - as he hands out his card to people before shuttling off to the next event.
Itās the willie OāDea school of politiking. But minus the tash and hash.
Dee is more likely to be found at a big business awards ceremony.
The people of Limerick need to think very carefully here.
Holly Cairns in danger of losing her seat?
Holly wonāt even be campaigning as sheās due s baby around polling day.
Ivan Yates says sheās safe enough.
Thereās enough hipsters in South West Cork to see her home.
The odds have gone out on her since Yatesyās podder. Heās also tipping Labour to get the 4th seat in Limerick City which I canāt see happening