By @dodgy_keeper?
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Huh?
Over 65 percent turn out at 5/6 is a sure thing surely?
a few āto top the pollā options available for different constituencies.
Do you have any understanding of the STV system. Utter bullshit of a statement.
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Limerick County being one of the top constituencies for dispensable income will elect OāDonavan FG & Collins FF who will top the poll imo.
The third seat is a bit of a lottery, Nevilleās son seems a nice fella, but other then canvassing off the family name wouldnāt have a hope, OāBrien and or Heffernan could get in ahead of him.
Poor enough candidates all round really being honest though.
A desperately poor field but we donāt like change in our neck of the woods.
Heffernan wonāt get in. Itās a four horse race for the three seats.
Did my final bets last night.
- OāDonovan to get in at 1/3 (really doubting myself now after looking at the last few posts suggesting Neville will get in ahead of him). All the polls have him as a cert so itād be a big shock if he is ousted. He has a bigger profile than his running mate who is relying on the name alone.
- āothersā total number of seats to be less than 35.5 at 5/6
- last week backed Fine Gael at over 51.5 seats at 4/5. Looking at PP now the line has shifted to 54.5 seats.
Adds a bit of fun to tomorrow as you watch it all unfold on the couch.
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O Brien and Neville are very good friends. O Briens has been essentially running a hate campaign against Collins and fiana fail for 18 months now. O Brien is the man of the people at the moment and has a lot of staunch followers that will not under any circumstances vote for Collins.
O Brien has had 4 vans on the road and 2 buses carting around canvassers. A local Hurley maker is supporting big time along with a few businesses in town. Heās far fr from a true gaa fan. The man would travel hours to a game just to be seen. Heāll jump on any band wagon and itās all about votes with him.
I heard a recording of a debate this morning from a few weeks back between OāBrien, Heffernan, Neville and OāDonoghue.
Testy enough affair. Heffernan comes across as fairly contrary but he was decent. Itās fairly obvious himself and OāBrien donāt like each other. Heffernan landed a few nice blows in relation to the gasification project, where he was in the ideal position of being the only one in the debate who didnāt vote in favour of it.
I had a read through the SDs website last night and Iām edging towards giving them the vote, more towards the party than Heffernan as Iāve no strong preference for any one of the candidates and donāt particularly want to vote for the establishment. Is the SDās out perform they might end up with 5 seats and potentially be in a strong position when it comes to forming a government.
Although Emmet OāBrien did leave a little notebook and biro on my doorstep last night.
Did he not ring the doorbell?
They were there on my arrival back from training
hes leaving the hand written notes everywhereā¦
Iām just back from voting in the Limerick county constituency.
- OāDonovan (FG)
- Neville Jnr (FG)
- Beefy
- OāBrien
Didnāt go below that. I didnāt realise before, but the green party candidate, one Alexander Storey-Cosgrave, works in the market every Saturday selling jams. Do you recall this fella @ChocolateMice from your days there? It would be a far cry from selling jam at the market to sitting in the dail.
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Why the fuck did you give Neville a vote? Heās the cunt who after being elected to the council a few years ago fucked off to Australia. Thatās an indication of his regard for civic office.
Heās only a kidā¦his parents own the stall and the family work itā¦ His father is a history lecturer in UCC where Iām sure Alex is still a student or not long graduated. Heās a good kid but the kind that could talk aboy
To keep the recovery going.
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Thereās a lot more to than that and itās fairly tragic. Wouldnāt hold it against him at all.
Lads, Iāve just backed O RiordĆ”in to be next Labour leader @ 9/2. I think theyāre pretty decent odds.
First and most importantly, will he get in?
Exit polls show thereās only one quota in there for SF, FG and FF so thereās 2 seats left. McGrath has one. O RiordĆ”in is down to fighting for the last seat with Broughan most probably.
Heās younger and has been canvassing quite heavily and has been well received apparently. He has had large teams out. Labour often poll well above the countrywide area in this constituency and private polls have shown his vote to be holding up relatively well, apparently. A lot of Broughanās heartland of Donaghmede/Coolock has many other outlets for its disaffection.
Opinions @Rocko @Sidney @Fagan_ODowd?
As for the party leader bit. Lots of the āsaferā fellas in Ryan, Penrose, Howlin, Stagg etc will be too old for the role of Leader. Nash, Howlin and Kelly are ahead of him in the betting at present. Kelly can be scratched. He is marmite and has many detractors within the party. Howlin is older than @anon67715551 and way less craic so heās gone too. Heās only in there in case all the lads donāt make it. Nash is excellent and a worthy favourite but the odds on him in a head to head with O Riordain would not be as favourable.
I believe I mooted this last year.
Alex White would be a contender but heāll have to get in first.