Election Predictions

Sidney · February 26, 2016, 11:55am

For all the talk about transfers, only 9 of the 43 constituencies in 2011 were decided on them.

These were:
Cork North Central (4) - Dara Murphy (FG) finished 5th on Count 1 but beat Pat Burton (FG) who finished 4th.

Dublin North East (3) - Sean Kenny (LAB - 5th on 1st count) beat Larry O’Toole (SF- 3rd on 1st count)

Galway East (4) - Colm Keaveney (LAB - 8th on 1st count) beat Tom McHugh (FG - 4th).

Galway West (5) - Sean Kyne (FG - 7th on 1st count) beat Fidelma Healy-Eames(FG - 5th).

Longford-Westmeath (4) - Robert Troy (FF- 5th on 1st count ) beat Peter Burke (FG - 3rd).

Meath West (3) - Ray Butler (FG - 4th) beat Jenny McHugh (LAB - 3rd).

Waterford (4) - John Halligan (IND - 5TH) beat Brendan Kenneally (FF - 3rd).

Wexford (5) - John Browne (FF - 6th) beat Michael D’Arcy (FG - 4th)

Wicklow (5) - Anne Ferris (LAB - 6th) beat Johnny Brady (SF - 4th).

Of those 9 seats, the net result was:
FG - 2 seats
FF + 1
LAB + 2
SF - 2
IND + 1

Sidney · February 27, 2016, 4:41pm

This is how I’d call it right now:

Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
2 FG , 2 FF, 1 SF

Cavan-Monaghan (4)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG

Clare (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

Cork East (4)
FG 1 , FF 1, LAB 1, SF 1

Cork North Central (4)
1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA

Cork North West (3)
FG 1, FF 2

Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF, 2 FG

Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

DONEGAL (5)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND (Pringle)

DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 IND (McGrath), 1 FG, 1 SF (Mitchell), 1 FF (Haughey), 1 LAB

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
2 FG, 1 GREEN, 1 LAB

DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
1 IND (Burke), 1 SF, 1 FG

DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Daly), 1 LAB

DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Kenny), 1 FF

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
2 SF, 1 Soc Dem

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
1 IND (Ross), 1 GREEN, 1 FG

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 IND (Collins)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Murphy), 1 FF

DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 LAB

DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
3 FG, 1 AAA (Boyd-Barrett)

GALWAY EAST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Canney)

GALWAY WEST (5)
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 IND (Grealish), 1 SF

KERRY (5)
1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND (Healy Raes)

KILDARE NORTH (4)
2 FF, 1 FG , 1 SD

KILDARE SOUTH (3)
2 FF, 1 FG

LAOIS (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB

LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
1 FF, 2 FG

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

LOUTH (5)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF

MAYO (4)
3 FG, 1 FF

MEATH EAST (3)
2 FG, 1 FF

MEATH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

OFFALY (3)
2 FF, 1 FG

ROSCOMMON (3)
2 IND (Naughten, Fitzmaurice), 1 FF (Murphy)

TIPPERARY (5)
1 FF (Cahill), 3 IND (Lowry, McGrath, Healy), 1 LAB

SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

WATERFORD (4)
1 FG (Coffey), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Halligan)

WEXFORD (5)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace)

WICKLOW (5)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF, 1 RENUA

52 FG
43 FF
23 SF
8 LAB
5 AAA
3 SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
2 GREEN
1 RENUA
21 INDEPENDENTS

carryharry · February 27, 2016, 4:46pm

That seems a fuck up if your prediction proves right.

Sidney · February 27, 2016, 4:51pm

Not done and dusted yet but it’s beginning to look that way. Dublin West would also be a disastrous fuck up.

Dublin Bay South, Longford-Westmeath and Meath East look like very near misses.

Still in the hunt in Cork South Central but it’s looking like FG could hold the second seat there on LAB transfers.

2nd seat in Dublin North West would be a good one though.

carryharry · February 27, 2016, 4:52pm

FF really did get their strategies spot on in most Area’s bar Tipperary where running 3 seems to have been a really stupid idea.

Sidney · February 27, 2016, 9:12pm

Revised forecast as of 9:12pm:

Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
1 FG , 3 FF, 1 SF

Cavan-Monaghan (4)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG

Clare (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

Cork East (4)
FG 2 , FF 1, LAB 1

Cork North Central (4)
1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA

Cork North West (3)
FG 1, FF 2

Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

DONEGAL (5)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND (Pringle)

DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 IND (McGrath), 1 FG, 1 SF (Mitchell), 1 FF (Haughey), 1 LAB

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
2 FG, 1 GREEN, 1 LAB

DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
1 IND (Burke), 1 SF, 1 FG

DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG (Farrell), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Daly), 1 LAB

DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Kenny), 1 FF

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SF, 1 SOC DEM 1 FG

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
1 IND (Ross), 1 GREEN, 1 FG

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 IND (Collins)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Murphy), 1 FF

DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 LAB

DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
3 FG, 1 AAA (Boyd-Barrett)

GALWAY EAST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Canney)

GALWAY WEST (5)
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 IND (Grealish), 1 SF

KERRY (5)
1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND (Healy Raes)

KILDARE NORTH (4)
2 FF, 1 FG , 1 SD

KILDARE SOUTH (3)
2 FF, 1 FG

LAOIS (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB

LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
1 FF, 2 FG

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

LOUTH (5)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF

MAYO (4)
2 FG, 2 FF

MEATH EAST (3)
2 FG, 1 FF

MEATH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

OFFALY (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND

ROSCOMMON (3)
2 IND (Naughten, Fitzmaurice), 1 FF (Murphy)

TIPPERARY (5)
1 FF (Cahill), 3 IND (Lowry, McGrath, Healy), 1 LAB

SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

WATERFORD (4)
1 FG (Deasy), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Halligan)

WEXFORD (5)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace)

WICKLOW (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF,

52 FG
43 FF
23 SF
8 LAB
5 AAA
3 SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
2 GREEN
0 RENUA
22 INDEPENDENTS

Sidney · February 28, 2016, 1:01am

Revised forecast as of 1:00 am

Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
2 FG , 2 FF, 1 SF

Cavan-Monaghan (4)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG

Clare (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

Cork East (4)
FG 2 , FF 1, LAB 1

Cork North Central (4)
1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA

Cork North West (3)
FG 1, FF 2

Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

DONEGAL (5)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND (Pringle)

DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 IND (McGrath), 1 FG, 1 SF (Mitchell), 1 FF (Haughey), 1 LAB

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
2 FG, 1 GREEN, 1 LAB

DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
1 IND (Burke), 1 SF, 1 FG

DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG (Farrell), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Daly), 1 LAB

DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Kenny), 1 FF

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SF, 1 SOC DEM 1 FG

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
1 IND (Ross), 1 GREEN, 1 FG

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 PBPA (Smith), 1 IND (Collins)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Murphy), 1 FF

DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 LAB

DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
3 FG, 1 AAA (Boyd-Barrett)

GALWAY EAST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Canney)

GALWAY WEST (5)
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 IND (Grealish), 1 SF

KERRY (5)
1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND (Healy Raes)

KILDARE NORTH (4)
2 FF, 1 FG , 1 SD

KILDARE SOUTH (3)
2 FF, 1 FG

LAOIS (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB

LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
1 FF, 2 FG

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

LOUTH (5)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF

MAYO (4)
2 FG, 2 FF

MEATH EAST (3)
2 FG, 1 FF

MEATH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

OFFALY (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

ROSCOMMON (3)
2 IND (Naughten, Fitzmaurice), 1 FF (Murphy)

TIPPERARY (5)
1 FF (Cahill), 3 IND (Lowry, McGrath, Healy), 1 LAB

SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF

WATERFORD (4)
1 FG (Deasy), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Halligan)

WEXFORD (5)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace), 1 SF

WICKLOW (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF,

52 FG
41 FF
24 SF
8 LAB
5 AAA
3 SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
2 GREEN
1 PBPA
0 RENUA
22 INDEPENDENTS

Massey · February 28, 2016, 1:32am

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

Massey · February 28, 2016, 1:39am

Frank Flannery is a horrible cunt

Bandage · February 28, 2016, 1:42am

Carol Nolan - Fenian Princess elected in Offaly:

Massey · February 28, 2016, 1:47am

Shes on now

Sidney · February 28, 2016, 12:21pm

@Fagan_ODowd

Projection as of 12:20pm.

Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
2 FG , 2 FF, 1 SF

Cavan-Monaghan (4)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG

Clare (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Harty)

Cork East (4)
FG 1 , FF 1, LAB 1, SF 1

Cork North Central (4)
1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA

Cork North West (3)
FG 1, FF 2

Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Collins)

DONEGAL (5)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND (Pringle)

DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 IND (McGrath), 1 FG, 1 SF (Mitchell), 1 FF (Haughey), 1 LAB

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
2 FG, 1 GREEN, 1 FF

DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
1 IND (O’Sullivan), 1 SF, 1 FG

DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG (Farrell), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Daly), 1 LAB

DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Kenny), 1 FF

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FG

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
1 IND (Ross), 1 GREEN, 1 FG

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 PBPA (Smith), 1 IND (Collins)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Murphy), 1 FF, 1 IND (Zappone)

DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 LAB

DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
3 FG, 1 AAA (Boyd-Barrett)

GALWAY EAST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Canney)

GALWAY WEST (5)
1 FF, 2 FG, 2 IND (Grealish, Connolly)

KERRY (5)
1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND (Healy Raes)

KILDARE NORTH (4)
2 FF, 1 FG , 1 SD

KILDARE SOUTH (3)
2 FF, 1 FG

LAOIS (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB

LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
1 FF, 2 FG

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

LOUTH (5)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF

MAYO (4)
2 FG, 2 FF

MEATH EAST (3)
2 FG, 1 FF

MEATH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

OFFALY (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

ROSCOMMON (3)
2 IND (Naughten, Fitzmaurice), 1 FF (Murphy)

TIPPERARY (5)
1 FF (Cahill), 3 IND (Lowry, McGrath, Healy), 1 LAB

SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF

WATERFORD (4)
1 FG (Deasy), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Halligan)

WEXFORD (5)
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace),

WICKLOW (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF,

52 FG
44 FF
23 SF
7 LAB
5 AAA
3 SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
2 GREEN
1 PBPA
0 RENUA
21 INDEPENDENTS

Sidney · February 28, 2016, 7:58pm

Bump.

@mickee321 is not the expert on his his home place he professed to be.

Massey · February 28, 2016, 9:04pm

Mickee knows fuck all about anything that’s been established long ago

mickee321 · February 28, 2016, 9:31pm

that’s some result for them, did you back it at all Sid?, id say it was a decent bet
anyway, hopefully we will get a good, strong FF/FG right wing coalition that will put this little sideshow to bed once and for all.
Gerry cost the shinners badly, they’ll always only appeal to working class sewer rats and students as long as they have this united Ireland charade, they have to do a job on this fool, he’s a fucking dithering simpleton.
i dunno, string him up with his brother for riding young kids or something and get Mary Lou in charge.
It was a good election for them, no doubt, but is this as good as it will get?
ok, we have 2011, but since then has there ever been a time when social unrest and unhappiness amoungst the “working class” was so high?
this election was a fucking penalty kick for the shinners, IMO, they fucked it up by leaning too favaorbly on dole heads and other benefit merachants who dont want to understand anything except how my taxes are going to pay for their next bus fare or perscription, if the shinners made any attempt at all to try , i mean try to position themselves so someone with a job or pays tax could think about voting for they’d have cleaned up here in this election…
Gerry was brutal, their economic stuff is woeful, like awful
In a local election, they’re great, they get stuff done, playgrounds, trafiic lights, that kind of stuff, but on a national level , they are fucking up and ruining left wing politics IMO

Tassotti · February 28, 2016, 9:32pm

delighted to Sean Haughey bac where he belongs, in the Dail

mickee321 · February 28, 2016, 9:40pm

since FG took over in 2011 ive bought 2 houses and a 2015 range rover
can someone please tell me why they wouldnt have voted for them
this country is booming for those with balls to try to make it, its like the USA of old, and what do we try to do, vote the lads out
Hopefully FF and FG can get it together, first thing would be to cancel that gay marriage referendum by a church veto and have that yoke Zapparone arrested and made an example of
Corporate tax should be lowered and a new law passed to have a general election every 9 years, id also redraw constituencies , if work you should be rewarded, overtime should be rewarded, progress should be rewarded and stricter laws should be introduced around immigration and social welfare, id also table leaving the EU for good, we have gotten all we can out of this charade and exploring the possibility of aligning with sterling.
the possibilities are endless for a FF FG coalition

Steven_Naimsith · February 28, 2016, 9:46pm

You should start an Oirsh Tea Party mate.

Páirtí an Tae na hÉireann… The PTE

Nembo_Kid · February 28, 2016, 9:48pm

I’m a republican.

Sidney · February 28, 2016, 9:48pm

The “Cup of Tea Party”.