Ukraine have drawn first half. Game on Ger. They’ll bury them early in the running order now like I predicted all along. They could well open the show but that feels too harsh so they’ll probably be somewhere between 5-7 and in a 25 runner field recency bias is enormous on public vote side of things. Your man was sickened after pulling it out of the hat. I’d say they’re dead in the water now and as I type they’re still 1.77 15mins later (about 8/13 with bookies). That will take a big walk before Saturday night.
Fuck Netherlands have drawn first half too. The country who has done best out of tonight is Sweden and they didn’t even perform. Loads of balls left for second half when they come to draw on Thursday night and a good few big hitters are in first half - Ukraine, Italy, Netherlands, Norway (potential big hitter on public vote), Spain, France and Portugal. The first half is oozing with big players that will cannibalize each other while so far second half only has rubbish.
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Embarrassed for you all guys
Again mate, people are not going to forget to vote for Ukraine because they are in the first half of the draw. You are overthinking this.
The quality of the Ukrainian song does not matter.
Where Ukraine are positioned in the draw does not matter.
Ukraine are going to mop up the public vote. The only way they won’t win is if the suits pull a stroke.
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Pat Kenny has a piece on this now.
You’re wrong they’ll pan on jury vote for one as it’s 50/50 between jury and public and I could see the producers putting them immediately before another public vote heavy hitter like Spain or Norway. There is also proven stats that recency bias plays a huge role in who tops public vote. No act in the last 12 years who has drawn first half has topped the public vote. That’s problematic for them. Those who top public vote tend to be in the last six acts. You’re under thinking this.
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Ukraine will walk this
Italy are second favourites but they’re drawn ninth of 26 in the final?
They’re 8/1 not 8/15 like Ukraine. And 9 will be better than somewhere 1-6. I didn’t make the odds mate. Italy had as of last week 72 million Spotify streams of their song which was more than every one else combined. I imagine that played a part in them being second favs.
“There is also proven stats that recency bias plays a huge role in who tops public vote. No act in the last 12 years who has drawn first half has topped the public vote”
Has any act in the last 12 years represented a nation that has been invaded by Russia and seen Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II ??
I feel sorry for Ukraine’s plight but I’m not going to vote for them because ive kinda forgotten what their song was like 2 hours ago. Really ???
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I don’t think 9 is better than 1-6, I’d say the reverse if anything because people watch the early stages, go away for a bit and then come back.
I also think you’re underselling the Ukrainian song. Sure it’s not as good as the one it replaced but it’s a very decent effort in comparison to some of the other songs high in the betting and I would expect it to be doing pretty well with juries regardless of the political situation.
Is 8/15 or 8/13 prohibitive odds in terms of a betting opportunity, sure it is but this is not about betting, this is about the European public revelling in the renewal of the grand tradition of the annual showpiece of the cream of European music.
I don’t see Ukraine being bet.
Go back to 1993 when Bosnia were in the middle of getting bombed by the Serbs. Their singer ran along a runway to get on a plane to make it to Millstreet in Cork in time for the final. They were drawn 18 of 25. There was warm applause for them and the war was widely covered in the news. I recall them going to Bosnia for their results and the line was appaling and dropping in and out due to shelling. Bosnia were expected to mop up loads of sympathy votes but it didn’t matearilse and they finished 16th in the final. I’ve done more research on this than most people, I certainly haven’t made calculations on the back of a fag box. Lay Ukraine at 1.70 and thank me later.
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Done
1993 was entirely a jury vote and the informational landscape bore little resemblance to today. In 1993 you didn’t even see the faces of the people announcing the national jury votes, they were still talking down telephone lines. And it was still a competition which was mainly participated in by western European countries at that stage, only two of the other 24 participants were former Eastern bloc countries.
Poland are a great each way price now at 50/1 1-4 places as there’s only two balls left for semi final one and I think eight for semi final two. If he gets drawn second half like is probable now I’m sure he’ll be one of the last acts on. I tipped Poland here in February at 25.0, doesn’t make sense he’s double that now with the first half insanely stacked with all the fancied ones.
I predict he’ll be one of the ‘chosen ones’ by the producers to receive favoritism. Expect his name to be called very early in semi final two tomorrow night so that he’s one of the first in the back to pull his draw out of the hat and have bigger chances of second half with it being 8 v 2 in balls at the moment.
Evidence of the producers wanting to bury Ukraine was in evidence last night again when they were called eight of ten qualifiers, despite being the likeliest winner of that semi final. Why would they leave them in limbo until seven others were called? Because at that point the ‘big five’ had drawn their lots and four of them were in first half, meaning the odds of Ukraine getting a second half draw was exponentially higher if they got to put their hands in the hat straight away.
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By god. This thread takes some beating… Full blown essays on the Eurovision 
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I swear it’s a wind up
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It’s all about gambling I suppose?
We’ve entered plenty worse songs than this in the past.
She isn’t a very good singer though. Can barely hear her.