We may as well send over a trad band at this stage. Let the winners of the Fleadh Cheoil go on to represent us
Give it to a scantily clad Una Healy next year. With a cheesy pop song thrown in sheâll stop the rot.
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The Israeli lady looks feisty
They donât make em like that anymore. I wonder would it make it out of the semi finals now?
Not enough fireworks and no dancing. Unlikely
Noel Kelehan was some man to conduct an orchestra for us.
He wrote the strings part of this
Kelehan was with the Poles in 94
Last night was a fair result IMO - the Irish entry was absolutely brutal. The main guy singing was mediocre, he didnât look like he was enjoying it and the worst part his outfit meant no one could take him seriously beyond that. Croatia have a really horrible song itâs trying too hard but that was always getting through in a âtelevote onlyâ semi final. The final will be 50-50 jury and televote and this entry will bomb. Of the others it was predictable enough but i thought Netherlands deserved to go through at the expense of Serbia.
Moving onto the final itself and the expectation is Sweden will run away with the jury vote. This is decided first on Saturday night and is the traditional part where they go to each country for their votes. When thatâs completed they then start with whoever is last after the jury vote and call out their overall televote and so on up. Finland is strong favourite on the televote but expected to fall down on juries, im not sure it will to that extent but they have drawn first half which really affects their chances hugely. The first half so far is turning into a bloodbath with some big hitters in there with Sweden also drawing it coupled with Italy, Spain and France to name a few. Someone like Austria from semi final two is memorable too so if they draw first half as well thereâs a couple in there that are going to way underperform. Recency bias is huge especially for televote so you want to be second half and especially 20-26.
On the betting side Sweden are worthy favourites at about 4/7 now. I think they are probably too short and certainly not a backable price. Finland are second favs at around 7/2 and then next best is Ukraine around 10/1. The latter has a good draw in i think something like 19 but again like last year their song isnât a contender in a normal year. The question mark is again what will the sympathy vote be like. Iâm going with it being way down compared to last year so we shall see.
The outsiders I like most are Israel and crucially they have drawn second half and to me looks like something will be put on late. Youâre looking for someone to do well on both sides of the board - 3rd in jury vote and 3rd in televote would be enough to win it most years and I think they can compete well on both sides. Theyâre 80.0 currently on betfair but thatâs win only. The bookies are probably about 33/1 or so but youâll get 1-4 places each way. I can see them hitting the podium at least but for the win weâd need a lot of luck. The other outsiders Iâve done is Czech Republic at around 200.0 odd and Moldova at around 400.0 odd. Both at least have come out second half but a win for either would be Leicester city level of surprise. Of the side markets I expect Germany to go very well with the televote (those watching from home) whereas theyâll flop with juries. Theyâve got second half running order and their act will be one of the most memorable when it comes to voting. It is novelty but the song is not a bad radio song. Iâve been backing them the last few weeks at 500.00 downwards to be the televote winner. I think only betfair has this market and maybe the traditional bookies donât. If you can get anything about 100.0 odds itâs a good value bet for televote only. Equally for âtop big 5 countryâ (Italy, France, Spain, Germany, UK) theyâve been priced at the outsiders at around 40.0 and Iâve been nibbling that too with all of their opponents bar the UK mired in the tough first half and none of them particularly televote appealing songs I donât think.
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Moldova have a dwarf. That should help them to hoover up the diversity vote.
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I heard the Irish song for the first time last night, it was absolutely brutal. Yer man couldnât singâŚand they had a choreographer hired for it?! To do what exactly? Roar into the keyboardists ear? Hilarious in a way.
Lads, its the fucking eurovision.
Itâs the small margins.
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Five of the last eight winners have come from the first half of the final running order.
However all five of these have come from the 10-13 slots.
2003 since we got a winner from the single figure slots in the running order.
I presume they will give Sweden 11-13 so as you say it is not statistically awful. But Finland should be in line for one of those stalls too and maybe Spain who are expected to be thereabouts. If they could put Sweden in 9 or under it would really shake things up but the head producer is Swedish so that wonât happen.
I really think Israel can do it.
Iâm going
Israel
Finland
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Sweden in 9
Great draw for my beloved israelis and armenians. Not so good for my beloved French
My source tipped these Tuesday
Sweden win
Lithuania top Baltic
Armenia top 10
Israel Ew
Slovenia top Balkan