Sweden win - 1/2 now they are very likely winners but not a working manās price. A negative is no-one has won from a single digit draw in the 50/50 televote/jury vote era although no act as good as this has probably been placed in stall 1-9 either
Lithuania top Baltic - I think Estonia will pip them here and are evens to do so. Estonia will surprise overall
Armenia top 10 - I liked them but went cold on them in semi-finals, think they will get lost in the running order
Israel Ew - Agreed. Iāve said this from a week or so ago that they are the best bet of the outsiders, I gave them as the best value bet at 80.0. The bookies are laying them at around 12/1 but theyāre still as big as 60.0 on exchange as I type. They will podium finish but shouldnāt have enough to beat Sweden. The only crowd whoāll beat Sweden at this point iām afraid to admit are Finland if everything clicks.
Slovenia top Balkan - Theyāre the value bet now in that market for sure at 11/8 with Croatia around evens (from 4/1 yesterday).
Didnt hear that. Yes an overreaction if so. Another plausible reason for the drift was Lithuania were always expected to make the final (think they were 1/5) but Estonia were considered borderline in a televote only semi final as their song is purely jury fodder. They were around evens for much of the week to even make the final so in that event Lithuania would have automatically won that market being the only qualifier of the Baltic states if Estonia hadnāt made it.
Lots of Ukraine singers and dancers. The eldest is in a Tipp shirt so is getting lots of smiles off the Ukrainians in attendance. Thereās a baby rave up next
We went to one last year in a nightclub at 2pm on a Sunday. Was surreal especially as some parents were clearly going for it, some were topping up and some were seeing the nightclub for the first time sober
Fantastic stuff from our Eurovision expert @Smark here. Every nuance, odds swing. draw number and whatever else you want covered eloquently with facts that appear to stand up.
A man could make a few tidy quid following this advice. I think @smark may be Marty Whelan actuallyā¦
Some gamble has materialized on Israel today. They were 60.0 last night and now into 24.0 without even performing yet. They could go lower after the performance later but I still think they need incredible good fortune to win, but should be top 4/5.
Watching that Sweden song from that early running order of stall 9 it could seriously underperform with the televote. Are people really going to be motivated in 2hrs from now to pick up the phone and vote for that in large numbers, when there will be plenty of gimmicky/shouty/high energy stuff to come at various points much later in the running order - not to mention what will happen with Ukraine and the televote which could well go quite high again (which I donāt expect however). The big thing will be how much will Sweden be ahead with the juries (if at all). If she gets beat by one or two others on the jury vote (say Italy/Spain/Estonia - all fairly unlikely) then sheās fucked as the televote wonāt be overwhelming.
The problem with Israel in terms of the pure outright win is Spain last year with Chanel (3rd overall) and Fuego for Cyprus in 2018 (narrowly missed the win) both did this genre way, way better than she does and couldnāt get over the line.
