Ok guys, I’m making a thread for my famous algorithm.
Just awaiting the Irish figures for tomorrow but an astonishing week for the Brits with a 66% increase on the number of vaccines administered from the previous week. The Americans also hit a huge number and saw a 16% increase. Both the US and UK should hit their magic number projections in 12 weeks if they maintain the current rate of doses administered.
The EU on the other hand had a 5% decrease and are 61 weeks away from hitting their magic number projection at the current trajectory. Ireland look more likely to hit an even worse figure than that.
I’d imagine that the UK have hit what is probably close to their max rollout numbers now.
I think the US have another few gears left in them and can see them hitting 25m over the next few weeks.
You’d expect the EU to now start motoring from here on in.
Also, the UK figure this week was the equivalent of Ireland doing 305k per week.
The US figure this week was the equivalent of Ireland doing 287k per week.
Ok guys. I’ve decided to recalculate my US magic number figure. I previously predicted J&J would make up 20% of total doses by the time they reach their magic number (~70m).
As of now, as @Tierneevin1979 informed me J&J are only sitting at under 5m.
So of the ~21m doses issued in the US last week, they roughly comprised of
Moderna - 9m
Pfizer - 11m
J&J - 1m
J&J have been steady since the start with no ramp up yet. They started being administered on the 8th March, so they monthly figure is more or less 4.5m. It’s probably likely by the time the J&J ramp up really comes that the US will already be near their end game so I have recalculated the US figure to 10%.
The amendment only really pushes the US out one week at current rates.
In good news, mama J will be getting the vaccine on Thursday. Mid 70s with long-standing cancer so I hoped shed be getting it sooner but at least she’s up now.
The pace of the US rollout has really slowed down, the uptake there will probably a lot less than the UK and Ireland.
The EU actually takes until the Wednesday to fully update from the weekend.
They did 23.8m last week, which would be the Irish equivalent of 261k pw.
It’s taken until mid May but things are finally beginning to move. Think last week was the first week the EU and Ireland avg was in excess of both the UK and US avg.
