GAA Betting 2013

cluaindiuic · June 8, 2013, 4:30pm

Down have won the Christy Ring. [U][S]@[/S][B]OfficialDownGAA[/B][/U][/URL] 3-16 2-17 [URL=‘https://twitter.com/Kerry_Official’][U][S]@[/S][B][B]Kerry[/B]_Official[/B][/U]

Mac · June 8, 2013, 4:33pm

Kerry went a point up in injury time. Down went straight up the field and scored a goal. Sounded like some finish

Bisto · June 8, 2013, 4:34pm

[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 783095, member: 258”]Keaney named Full forward.
12/5 Anytime goalscorer?[/quote]

keaney won´t be ff …i´d fancy mccormack at same price…he´ll be in the corner i believe…done him at 7/1 for first goal…

Mac · June 8, 2013, 4:35pm

[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 783275, member: 258”]'Hon Donegal. Nicky Rackard Champions.

My fucking laptop crashed with the HOTY post 90% written.
Those useless fucks who work at Dell and Microsoft can collectively FOAD. :mad:[/quote]

Bullet points?

Fagan_ODowd · June 8, 2013, 4:38pm

Well Holy God. I trust you all piled in.

Bisto · June 8, 2013, 4:42pm

great shout Fagan… any man that can call those hurling results knows his onions…

Mac · June 8, 2013, 4:43pm

Fair play Fagan. Hadn’t a shilling on them but delighted for you.

Julio_Geordio · June 8, 2013, 4:45pm

Was at it, a great way to win, an awful way to lose. A draw would have been fair, nothing between them. Fair play Fagan, made a nice bit of the Donegal win myself.

cluaindiuic · June 8, 2013, 4:48pm

[FONT=Segoe UI]Hurler of the Year 2013 Betting Market[/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]So there are some things to always keep in mind with this market.[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]1. [/FONT][FONT=Segoe UI]In the 18 years of this award the winner has come from the All Ireland champions 16 times. The exceptions are Tony Browne [1998] and Dan Shanahan [2007][/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]2. [/FONT][FONT=Segoe UI]The bookies will make kneejerk reactions to every game in the championship. Just because Brendan Bugler is favourite after the Munster Final doesn’t mean shit. The real candidates do not emerge until well into the All Ireland Series[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]3. [/FONT][FONT=Segoe UI]There is some position bias. There has never been a winner who is a goalkeeper. There has been 6 defenders, 4 midfielders and 8 attackers who have won this award. So the bias goes to forwards in an overall sense and to midfielders in a ratio sense. [4 wins for 2 midfield positions as opposed to 8 wins for 6 forward positions] [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]4. [/FONT][FONT=Segoe UI]Given my first point the odds for the All Ireland championship have a direct relationship with the odds of individual players. If you play for a team that are 150/1 to win the All Ireland why would you be 50/1 to be HOTY. [See: Ladbrokes, Shane Dooley][/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]So here is a rough guide to the % chance of a team winning the All-Ireland going by PaddyPower odds removing their margin. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Kilkenny 50% - Evens[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Tipperary 22% - 7/2[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Galway 12% - 7/1[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Clare 4% - 25/1[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Cork 4% - 25/1[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Limerick 3% - 33/1[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Dublin 2% - 50/1 [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Waterford 1% - 100/1[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]The Rest 2% - Meh[/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]Given this I’m disregarding everyone apart from Galway, Tipperary and Kilkenny. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]And Galway begin and end with Canning. Best priced @7/1 with Boyles. If you fancy Galway to go one better this year he is your man. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]Outside of him you have a huge selection of Tipperary and Kilkenny players. Mainly because the bookies have no idea every year as to which player will jump from the pack. E.g. Eoin Larkin, Lar Corbett, Michael Fennelly and JJ Delaney in the past. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]So here are the Kilkenny and Tipp options ordered by their best odds. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]Kilkenny[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]14 Players 33/1 or shorter….[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Tommy Walsh – 10/1 Former Winner. Out of form. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Henry Shefflin – 14/1 Former Winner x3. Injured[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Michael Fennelly – 14/1 Former Winner. Injured[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Brian Hogan – 20/1 Consistent and understated. Contender[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Richie Power – 20/1 Maddeningly inconsistent. Boom or Bust. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]JJ Delaney – 25/1 Former Winner. Tough to win from fullback. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Paul Murphy – 25/1 Excellent last 2 years. Good value. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Richie Hogan – 26/1 – See other Richie[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Colin Fennelly – 28/1 On bench last year when it mattered. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Eoin Larkin – 28/1 Former Winner. Short of 2008 form. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Maichael Rice – 28/1 Too injury prone. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Lester Ryan – 33/1 Incredible League. Can he do it in the championship? Worth a flier.[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]TJ Reid – 33/1 Excellent last season. Best season. Can he top it? A bit of value there. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Walter Walsh – 33/1 Starting season on bench. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]Tipperary [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]9 Players 50/1 or shorter……[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Lar Corbett – 12/1 Former Winner Injured[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Padraig Maher – 12/1 Form a bit patchy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Brendan Maher – 16/1 Wished I got him 50/1 in February with Powers. Will play a large role if Tipp go all the way. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Noel McGrath – 16/1 A bit like Richie Power. Can be superb, huge potential. Yet to really fulfil it. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Seamus Callinan – 25/1 – Not trusted in the business end of championship hurling [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Eoin Kelly – 33/1 Does not start[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Pa Bourke – 40/1 Does not start[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Brian O’Meara – 50/1 Does not start[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Shane McGrath – 50/1 Fears Michael Fennelly. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]So to summarise you are looking at:[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Galway[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Seeing how they are playing Laois first day out and Joe Canning will probably score a bit he will probably get shorter.[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]At 7/1 it’s probably as short as he will be until after the AI Final. Might be a back and see option. 7/1 is better than the 5/1 available for Galway to win the AI. And Joe Canning is one of the few players with the scoring ability to win the award without winning the All Ireland. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]Kilkenny[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]Looking for longer odds on contenders. I’m looking at Brian Hogan, TJ Reid, Lester Ryan and Paul Murphy. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]Tipperary[/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]If you fancy Tipperary to win it all I’d be looking mainly at Brendan Maher but there was better value there earlier in the year on him. [/FONT]

[FONT=Segoe UI]I’m certainly going to put money on Paul Murphy and a flier on Lester Ryan. [/FONT]
[FONT=Segoe UI]After that still deciding. I’ll wait until before the Laois game to decide on Canning. [/FONT]

cluaindiuic · June 8, 2013, 4:55pm

'Hon Fagan.
My accum is 6/6 so far.

Bisto · June 8, 2013, 4:56pm

[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 783335, member: 258”][FONT=Segoe UI]Hurler of the Year 2013 Betting Market[/FONT]