As I was putting them up last night I was thinking theyâre a right pain too. But until theyâre banned uniformly (and also the âpublic meetingâ types too) then theyâll be ubiquitous. Other option is to limit each candidate to 100-200 posters - it would vastly reduce the amount of them.
It will be very close between himself and Tom Neville. He seems to have a big machine about him that will have gained plenty of experience in the local elections. I would be interested to know has he put as much effort into the towns further away because plastering the towns where he is already well known would be foolish if heâs not hitting the towns further away from his N69 base with the same gusto.
Iâm not sure Neville is liked all that well, in particular after abandoning his council seat while he went off to Australia for a few years, but that said there wasnât much between himself and OâBrien in the locals and he will have the big benefit of the guaranteed transfers from OâDonovan.
OâBrien will not only attract a lot of transfers from Collins but will also benefit from votes for people who want to vote against the Government yet donât want to vote Fianna Fail.
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Yes. I will. As I did last time. Although I will have a much quicker method for taking them down this time. A very sharp knife on a long poll is your only man.
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Considering transferring my vote from Limerick for the first time as it doesnât suit me to drive home election weekend.
@sidney, how is Dublin Bay South shaping up? Presumably Murphy gets in for FG. Then thereâs that cunt Creighton, Eamon Ryan Greens, Andrews SF, Humphreys Labour and what appears to be some sort of stepford wife hoping to sneak a second FG seat all vying for the other three seats.
At home in Limerick citay Noonan and Willie are in, Quinlivan should take a third for SF and then Jan battles it out against a second FG prick.
Heâs going to get elected. Heâll break into the top two as well.
I doubt heâll get top two
Labour constituency analysis
There is no definite Labour seat in this election - all are at risk is the national swing is big enough. Some TDs, mostly in Leinster, such as Howlin, Penrose and Stagg, should hold on due to strong personal votes. They are really scrambling for seats otherwise.
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
Almost certain LOSS to SF.
Cavan-Monaghan (4)
No chance of a seat.
Clare (4)
McNamara has a chance of the last seat but looking very dicey. SF are weak here which may help him. I think itâll be a LOSS to FF however.
Cork East (4)
Sherlock has a good chance to HOLD his seat.
Cork North Central (4)
Kathleen Lynch likely to LOSE her seat.
Cork North West (3)
No chance.
Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Gone from a 5 seater to a 4 seater. Definite LOSS of a seat.
Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
No chance.
DONEGAL (5)
No chance.
DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
Aodhan OâRiordain with a massive battle to hold on. Has a chance but on balance, is likely to LOSE in a dogfight.
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
Good chance of a Labour HOLD. Fine Gael and SF will challenge strongly however.
DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
Goes from a four seater to a three seater. Joe Costello lost his seat in 1997 here in more favourable circumstances to 2016. LOSS.
DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
SF and Clare Daly will probably take seats here which will make it difficult for Labour. Good chance of a HOLD, nonetheless.
DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
Two seats here in 2011, only running Tuffy this time. She will LOSE.
DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
Main strength for Labour here is that FG havenât taken a seat in this constituency in yonks. Seems to be moving away from them however. LOSS.
DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
Alex White is odds against to hold his seat but as the only chance of a âleftâ seat I suspect he could benefit from tactical voting and HOLD. Performed well in the marriage referendum debate which should benefit him in the most affluent constituency in the country.
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Eric Byrne has a chance to HOLD but heâs 50-50 at best. Not sure where his transfers will come from either as FG are only running one candidate who will be elected but wonât reach the quota, thus no surplus to distribute.
DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
No seats likely. Traditionally Labourâs strongest constituency. LOSS.
DUBLIN WEST (4)
Burton 50-50 at best. FF split at local level could benefit her. Toss up but Iâll go for a HOLD.
DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
Gone here. LOSS.
GALWAY EAST (3)
No chance.
GALWAY WEST (5)
Outside chance but a likely LOSS to SF.
KERRY (5)
Outside chance but a likely LOSS.
KILDARE NORTH (4)
Emmet Stagg is proven vote-getter. Likely HOLD.
KILDARE SOUTH (3)
Good chance of a HOLD.
LAOIS (3)
No chance.
LIMERICK CITY (4)
Likely LOSS to SF. FG will have enough to take the last seat.
LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
No chance.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
Willie Penrose is a huge vote getter but will be well down this time. Should HOLD, however.
LOUTH (5)
SF likely to take 2 here. Means Nash has a big battle to get a seat. 50-50 at best. FF will probably get a seat so his best chance is to beat the 2nd sitting FG TD Peter Fitzpatrick. Will be very close but LOSS.
MAYO (4)
No chance.
MEATH EAST (3)
Definite LOSS of a seat.
MEATH WEST (3)
Virtually no chance.
OFFALY (3)
No chance.
ROSCOMMON (3)
No chance.
TIPPERARY (5)
50-50. LOSS, I think.
SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
No chance.
WATERFORD (4)
Likely LOSS.
WEXFORD (5)
Should hold due to Howlinâs personal vote but not a certainty. Mick Wallaceâs strength will probably hold off SFâs challenge for Howlin.
WICKLOW (5)
Likely LOSS.
Overall:
Probable holds (3):
Kildare North
Longford-Westmeath
Wexford
Good chances to hold (4):
Kildare South
Dublin Fingal
Cork East
Dublin Bay South
Key battles (8):
Dublin West
Dublin South Central
Dublin Bay North
Louth
Tipperary
Clare
Dublin Rathdown
Dublin North-West
Outside chances (7)::
Limerick City
Dublin Central
Cork North-Central
Galway West
Kerry
Dublin Mid-West
Wicklow
He will. Heâs going to piss it the money behind this man is obscene. Heâs a jeep and a van with his mug painted all over parked around the place. 4 trailers being towed around the place too which get dropped off and heâs another van driving around blasting out âvote emmet o Brienâ the country roads. I know lads with a grand on him at 13/8. Collins is shitting some of his most loyal helpers are with o Brien now.
Whatâs this fucker Emmet going to do once he gets in though? For all his bluster and hot air he will have his hands tied in there unable to do anything, an anonymous figure who when the time comes wonât go on the peoples debate with Vincent Browne in a few years in front of an audience of his peers who put him in the position in the first place.
We have a really shocking calibre of candidate running in county Limerick. Says it all when Niall Collins is 1/50 to win a seat and OâDonovan who has never done a thing is 1/25 to get in AGAIN.
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The chat over a pint last night was that Murphy (FG) should be safe but unlikely to go much past quota - apparently no politician in ages in this constituency has got elected on the first count. Lucinda was fairly likely. Based upon personal vote and local church types - 20% voted no in marriage equality referendum. After that a bit of an unknown battle beween Ryan, Humphries, Andrews, OâCallaghan and to a lesser extent the other FG girl.
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O Brien will talk a good game and stay onside with the people and probably take credit for other peopleâs work.
There has been two âleftâ seats here since 1997 inclusive. Creighton, despite leaving FG, will still be fishing in the same FG gene pool for votes. I think sheâll get them but that will stop FG from getting the Stepford wife elected alongside Murphy. I think Eamon Ryan will get in and the last seat will be a battle between Humphreys and Andrews. Think Humphreys will do just enough to hold for Labour.
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I think Humpreys is in trouble. His vote in Ringsend and Pearse St will collapse and I donât see Ruairi Quinnâs Sandymount vote being transferred to him as seamlessly as others do. Heâs going to be relying on FG transfers to retain his seat.
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Well then, I am leaning more towards transferring my vote to Dub Bay South so that I can greater assist the SF effort. Sorry to alright sort Gaffney of the Greens in Limerick, I had planned to give him my first preference and second to SF after he got eliminated on the first count.
Youâre after decimating his first preferences mate.
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At a guess, 10.
Lol 
If he stays ahead of OâConnell on first preferences, the transfers from her elimination will push him over the line, I think.
But likewise Andrews could get a boost from the elimination of the Fianna Fail candidate if he stays ahead of him.
Youâve said thereâs traditionally two left seats, I would expect SF will be more likely to get that vote than Labour.