Champion of the upper classes OāConnell has given herself a terrible hairdo which will do nothing for her chances in her D6 heartland. She looks like a scullery maid from Downton Abbey.
1 Like
Brendan Howlinās seat in Wexford should be pretty safe in fairness.
@glasagusban, welcome to Dublin Bay South. This used to be Michael McDowell, John Gormley, Ruairi Quinn territory. Has the boundary being redrawn resulted in Eamon Ryan coming in here? I donāt recall him being here last time.
The Stepford Wife OāConnell has been feuding with Creighton about abortion. She married into a family owned pharmacy franchise and also had a tough pregnancy - sheās been giving it big licks about how she understands the complexities of this issue by virtue of her professional and personal experiences and that Creightonās stance should make it impossible for any woman to vote for her.
Could someone remind me why Enda hates the Murphy chap? He seems like the bland, posh dickhead type that would go to the top of Fine Gael. Didnāt he align himself with Bruton et al as a youngster when they were trying to get rid of Enda back in the late noughties?
2 Likes
Labour only have one candidate this time. Some of that Labour vote will no doubt move to Eamon Ryan and SF, but Labour got 9,000 votes last time compared to 1200 odd for SF. Itās traditionally a constituency where they poll well above their national average and SF under.
Outside of Pearse Street/Ringsend/Irishtown, Iām not sure thereās quite enough of a working class vote to get Andrews elected.
Iām also not sure if his Fianna Fail past will do him much good.
The female quota effect is the joker in the pack. Lots of candidates listed who might otherwise have had to wait their turn.
Other interesting point will be does the others/independent vote fall away as you are not voting for a government if you vote independent
A hung dail is looking very likely. Question is then whether FF have to go into government with FG or risk being punished in a re run.
Yes. His power base is outside of the traditional Dublin South East constituency, and if he hoovers up the Gormley vote he should get over the line.
Whelan is well regarded in Laois. It will be interesting. Heās been distancing himself from Labour these past few months, so much so his car doesnāt even have a mention of Labour on it.
They are fairys
Iām moving my vote to his constituency to get him elected and Iāve no doubt many more will do the same. Tiocfaidh Ć”r lĆ”.
Fine Gael do seem to be stuck on the 27-28% mark. If you look at it these past 30 years the ānormalā vote for FG is around the 27-28%; they have their outliers like the disasters of 1992 and 2002 and the exceptional 2011 showing but in a normal year they get something similar to their poll rating today. Invariably that delivers 51-55 seats. They have a slightly smaller DĆ”il this time, which would depress the number but on the other hand the split nature of the vote and their status as by far the biggest party should give them a boost seat wise.
A vote share of 28% will pretty much give you 2 seats in the 11 X 5-seaters and 1 seat in the 13 X 3 and 16 X 4 seaters, which is 51 seats. The key for FIne Gael is 30%. Breach that and a second seat in the 4-seaters comes into play; 16 more seats start to open up and the more they exceed 30% the more of them that fall. If FG move above 30%, theyāre into 51 to 67 territory. FG do invariably put on support during a campaign.
If Labour are in single digits, FG wonāt be marooned in the mid-50s because FG will pick up a good dollop of those Labour seats. Its worrying for FG to see their partners failing to make up the numbers but 7% looks a juicy number when itās in the hands of your unwitting sweepers.
1 Like
Think you had to do whatever transferring of votes done by the end of November. Please correct me if Iām wrongā¦
Next Tuesday is the deadline according to two work colleagues, havenāt looked into it yet myself
Sweet! When you look it up will you send on the link please? Thanks m8
Dublin Bay South constituency:
They were very careful to ensure no one in Dolphins barn is associated with Dublin Bay South
1 Like
The extruding bit around Terenure was formerly Dublin South Central. Apparently Labourās Eric Byrne did quite well here. Could benefit Humpheys in the new constituency but conversely damage Byrne.
There must be a real pallor of gloom across the country of Wexford with the retirement of political colossus Deputy Browne. Hopefully the exhausting process of finding someone to fill those boots will yield a worthy successor. Will Ger Carthy or Mythen eat into Howlinās vote at all?
Eoghan Murphy is a son of Henry Murphy S.C. and a grandson of Gay Byrneās former financial guru Russell Murphy. Very much south Dublin Fine Gael blueboods. Enda is from the country & wetern/big farmer type end of the party. Those two factions generally donāt get along.
1 Like
Yes- I sent my RFA3 form off yesterdayā¦ registering to vote needs to be done by November, thatās a different ball game @Locke
1 Like
Deputy Browneās son James is on the Fianna FĆ”il ticket so Enniscorthy might still have a Browne in the DĆ”il. Thereās likely to be 1 seat for them in the county and heās competing with party colleagues Malcolm Byrne (Gorey) and Aoife Byrne (New Ross, daughter of Hugh). I think heās got the best chance out of those three.
Yes, I was aware that both Browne and Byrne scions were running.
Will the Gorey card be of assistance to Malcolm? No TD in the north of the county and the only real rival there is DāArcy who has never been the biggest of vote getters. Who and where is Julia Hogan from?