Seat 1: Bruton (FG)
2: McGrath (IND)
3: MacDonnacha (SF)
4: Haughey (FF)
5: Broughan (IND)
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Norton was the leading IND in the odds until the last few days. Harty has moved ahead now alright.
Hard constituency to get a handle on in terms of which IND will emerge strongest.
I may revise this again.
No.
FF/SF would be pushing the margins of a possible minority coalition if they get a combined 69 seats however.
FF have consistently ruled out a Martin/Adams deal, but are they merely crying Wolfie?
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Are we looking at SF in government at all?
Well wait for the next dance mousie no need to blow the load just yet
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Of course not.
Reason 1. No one will want to jump into bed with them while Gerry is leader.
Reason 2. Why would they want to go into Government when they can stay in opposition & build their party support further. Itās easier grow on the sidelines as opposed to joining a coalition to make unpalatable decisions which would annoy their core support.
Agreedā¦ We are clearly playing the long game here and CAN wait - the likes of FF and LAB are fucked. If FF jump into bed with FG - we become the legitimate oppositionā¦ If FF donāt get into power, Martin is most likely gone and they, as a party, have very little in the rank and file.
Agreed. See below/above.
Iāll be voting SF but I kind of hope FF and FG form the government. Labour will be wiped out and in that scenario we finally have a straight choice between right wing government and the leftwing opposition. It would be good for Irish politics long term.
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+1
FF/FG government is the best long term scenario for Sinn Fein.
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The FF/FG/Lab dopes are playing draughts while gerry/pearse/marylou are playing chess
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A FF&FG coalition will create a monster.
The wily hooky ways of FF combined with the downright bastardness of FG.
FGās problem is they can never get away with the strokes like FF can, but with the two of them combinedā¦
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I think basically what youāre saying here is, that itād be like Thanos getting his hands on all 5 infinity stones and incorporating them into the infinity gauntlet? Am I right?
Nah it would be like Avon barksdale and Proposition Joe teaming up,itād work for a while but you know it wouldnāt last
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This time Iām going to be part of the systemic corruption, no way Iām missing out on another round.Iām off to stock up on brown envelopes.
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Limerick candidates on radio 1 now.
Possibly but the PR system seems to require all parties move to centre as you need transfers to get above a certain critical mass.
Is there a core FF/FG vote that means they would hold power for quite a while. Based on last election when faced with a ruined economy FF still held that core vote.
It would present SF with an opportunity to grow but no guarantee and quite unlikely there is a strong left vote over where they are now. They would need a partner in Labour
Fianna Fail constituency analysis:
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
2 seats certain
Cavan-Monaghan (4)
1 certain, 2nd virtually no chance
Clare (4)
1 certain, good chance of a 2nd
Cork East (4)
1 certain, wonāt be a 2nd
Cork North Central (4)
1 very likely
Cork North West (3)
1 certain, 2nd highly unlikely
Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 certain, 2nd likely
Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
1 likely
DONEGAL (5)
1 certain, good chance of 2
DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 likely
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
Unlikely to get a seat
DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
Unlikely to get a seat
DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 certain, 2nd highly unlikely
DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
Good chance of 1
DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
Outside chance of 1
DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
Unlikely to get a seat
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Unlikely to get a seat
DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
Good chance of 1
DUBLIN WEST (4)
Likely to get 1 seat
DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
Likely to get 1 seat
GALWAY EAST (3)
Good chance of 1, 2nd unlikely
GALWAY WEST (5)
1 certain, 2nd unlikely
KERRY (5)
1 likely
KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 likely
KILDARE SOUTH (3)
1 likely, outside chance of 2
LAOIS (3)
1 certain, 1 only
LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 certain, 1 only
LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
1 certain, 1 only
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 certain, very hard to see a 2nd
LOUTH (5)
Good chance of 1 seat
MAYO (4)
1 seat certain, 1 only
MEATH EAST (3)
1 seat certain, 1 only
MEATH WEST (3)
1 seat likely
OFFALY (3)
1 seat certain, good chance of 2
ROSCOMMON (3)
Good chance of 1 seat (Curran)
TIPPERARY (5)
1 seat certain, 1 seat only
SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
1 seat certain, possibility of 2
WATERFORD (4)
1 very likely, 1 only.
WEXFORD (5)
1 certain, possibility of 2
WICKLOW (5)
Good chance of 1 seat only.
I give them 20 certain seats.
These are:
Carlow-Kilkenny (2 seats)
Clare
Cavan-Monaghan
Cork East
Cork North-West
Cork South-Central
Donegal
Dublin Fingal
Galway West
Laois
Limerick City
Limerick County
Longford-Westmeath
Mayo
Meath East
Offaly
Sligo-North Leitrim
Tipperary
Wexford
Likely seats (ie higher than 80% chance) (12):
Cork North Central
Cork North West
Cork South Central (2nd seat)
Cork South-West
Dublin Bay North
Dublin West
Dun Laoighaire
Kerry
Kildare North
Kildare South
Meath West
Waterford
Good chances (ie roughly 50/50) (9):
Clare (2nd seat)
Donegal (2nd seat)
Dublin Mid-West
Dublin South-West
Galway East
Louth
Offaly (2nd seat)
Roscommon
Wicklow
Outside chances (3):
Dublin North-West
Sligo-North Leitrim (2nd seat)
Wexford (2nd seat)
If they all came through then Martin has as good a chance of being Taoiseach as Enda