Buy the US$ in my humble opinion.
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Do you think the dollar will still be the world reserve currency after this. Genuine question
What’s the alternative?
A mix. A global currency
Can’t see it. The world will look for stable and familiar; not more upheaval once this bastard thing has passed
How do you value assets and debt.
The IMF are going to have to reset. Debt forgiveness and a new currency, global reserve will stimulate recovery, possibly.
Going with tradition, nobody will have money.
Yes. There’s really no alternative.
If the US devalues the dollar, which will almost certainly happen. There’s no way the EU and China will want to continue with the status quo.
In the worst case scenario where this continues for six months or more there will be enormous issues, but relatively the US can deal with them better than the EU. Just as the US recovered from the financial crisis better than the EU. The EU is largely impotent.
More likely I think is due to treatments and maybe an earlier vaccine than expected, we will get back to sort of normal in a few months. There again the US will do better, because most of the top corporations in tech and industry are American.
I honestly think China will do very badly out of this, sure they can expand more in Africa, but most of their neighbors in Asia don’t trust them. For good reason
I’m just spit balling here. Was talking to a money man in the states and his prediction was debt forgiveness and a new global reserve. He is quite clever.
I really don’t want to get political about it. I’m not a money man. Just wanted to get your spin on it, you’re strong on economics
I’m not really 
If things collapse I would agree with him, there will have to be a massive reset like the 1930s.
I don’t think it will come to that, but maybe that’s me being optimistic.
How much longer before massive collapse? Almost all sectors are paused.
The only sector going is health. Governments are burning through reserves to subsidise the effort. 2-3 months max you’re looking at a global reset
And what choice do they have in current climate? China is going to get whacked around the ears internationally when the dust settles. Theuve also also got, let me just check my figures here a sec- oh, a metric fuckton of US$ in reserves and owed. Won’t want that devaluing
The EU will take some while to sort it’s own house out. Can actually see the far right using the whole situation to create more destabilisation of the eurozone ideal. Be quashed but as I say, I believe it be a while before EU looks at anything on that front.
Be a good while again before pushes to unshackle from US$ I think
If everything resets to zero then all bets are off. I’d stay a million miles away from currency right now
The eurozone will come under massive pressure. During crisis people look inwards. But also, you can see pressure happening at the federal level in the United States. Unions are questioned at times like this
The yanks love a good national crisis. Bout the only time genuinely pull together and their patriotism legit.
In general when theres a common enemy. They’re fighting against the federation and each other for PPE etc now. Its ugly there.
Same as in the EU but theres some bit of sovereignty in the EU.
It will go one of two ways, a move towards globalisation or a reverting towards sovereignty. I don’t think the status quo exists anymore. We’ll be looking at a new world, one way or the other
Spain are already talking about a living wage
There’s a remarkable amount of business that has adjusted well, working from home, etc. Obviously there’s lots that can’t do it, but so much of our lives were already part of the digital economy. A lot of staff gone obviously from restaurants, but most kitchens are flat out with take out and deliveries. Pubs obviously destroyed but it’s a high failure industry anyway.
It will be a new world for sure, massive investment in health care like nothing we have seen, more tracking like in Asia, people will be more cautious, who knows when we will have large gatherings again.
We can recover from this phase, bit if there’s another worse outbreak later this year we could be fucked. Generally though when the stakes are high enough we rise to the challenge.
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We’re still early enough in that major corporations are maintaining projects but there are dependencies on sectors that have paused. New projects may not start. It’s a tipping point.
If it ends up being a major disaster then lines will be redrawn. After every global crisis the last two centuries the globe looked the same but maps were different. I think maps wont change but financial norms will.
Living wage is inevitable. Since many western countries became dominated by service industries, and minimum or low wage jobs, there’s a need to top up salaries to a living wage. It makes zero sense to pay people more in terms of welfare (total welfare, including child allowance, housing, etc.), rather than paying them to be productive.
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