Up 20 per cent in a week
Who are you buying currency with? I’ve broke down my betting money into five lots and have decided to transfer one lot into the US dollar. Would you think revolut is risky?
Yes for anything more than spending money
Correct. It’s like giving an envelope of cash to the wife in Dundrum shopping centre and telling her to mind it for an hour
Who would you use?
No idea. Not something that ever interested me
I would have thought currency speculation was for lads dealing in milluns and billuns?
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Me too. If I had a strong view on a currency Id buy a share in that currency or something as a proxy
Can leverage on spread betting and cfds between 200 and 800 times your initial balance on many platforms. You are making trades on margin however.
You are ‘betting’ per pip movement - EUR/USD is 1.0950 today - if it moves to 1.0980 that’s a 30 pip movement. If you’re long EUR 100 per pip thats a EUR 3k gain.
To bet EUR 100 per pip you’d need min balance of circa 3k - 7k depending on the leverage and margin requirements of the platform/broker. Your initial 7k balance is getting the power of 1.4m worth of movements (in a leverage of 200 account)
So you can get involved relatively cheaply but it’s very dangerous for retail players. Your balance can be wiped out in an instant and you can owe multiples of your initial investment, especially in volatile swings such as the last couple of months. Fortunes have been made and lost in gbp, cad, aud in the last 12 weeks. I’ve seen margin calls in the millions with the CAD going through thr floor a couple of weeks ago. Jumping off the roof type situations as stop losses are ploughed through. Not really something to be half playing at but as I said you can get large exposures for relatively small investment.
Sounds a bit risky.
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Please don’t encourage him 
Tell me though, purely as a matter of interest, do you think the strength of the USD is sustainable in the medium-long term?
Their debt seems to be spiralling even more so than other regions/ countries.
It won’t remain the global reserve currency of choice forever.
Its political system appears to be more open to manipulation than most. The current incumbent in the White House is deranged, and it is increasingly run by a coterie who resemble the baddies in The Dark Crystal.
In short, no, but not because of either the two reasons you outlined below. The dxy has been hovering around 95 - 100 + for the past 3/4 years and that’s due to a few different factors, being the success of the US economy v Europe v Emerging Markets and the fact up until 6 weeks ago the US was paying 1% - 2% interest rates while Europe and Japan were paying negative interest rates. The current fed overnight rate is now 0 - 0.25% v negative rates in Japan and Europe - this will result in the usd depreciating as long as they remain at this level and they will for the forseeable given the current environment. Expanding their b/s by 3 trillion and providing basically limitless repos are all negative for the dollar… Fact is 10yr and 30yr treasurys are the most liquid and secure securities in the world and will always ensure a bid for the dollar but I think we’re coming close to the end of this cycle of dominance of the usd. Due to, converging interest rates, it’s out of control deficit, QE4 and as you mentioned, there is an appetite to reduce the dollar as the worlds reserve currency it looks as if its peaked. It just won’t be the EUR that picks up that slack because to put it mildly the EUR is fucked in it’s current guise.
Long term plays v the dollar, I like the aud, loonie, sterling and despite them bringing the world to it’s knees, the renminbi.
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Where does growth in aud come.from? It’s now at a level to USD it has more traditionally held. I’m not sure longterm it comes back to the higher exchange it’s held more commonly in the past 15 or so years (or higher than 60c)
The Aust economy is a tricky one. Mining huge value bit everything dug up goes.out without value added to it. In essence, good spade work. Agriculture has taken a whalloping which continues to get harder with climate impacting. You’ve a property market, overinflated in Sydney and melb, propped up by foreign investors and landlords tied to their super.
Short to medium , can see currency value given they’ve not been as affected by this virus so what’s been shed in the last few weeks should quickly be regained. But i see more negatives or struggles there than upsides and for that, can’t see the Aussie dollar as a long term play.
I’ve noticed a lot of lads on Social Media (especially Instagram) with “Premier Fx Trader” in their bio…
One lad who’d be local enough really pushing the lifestyle. Work when you want, where you want etc. I wouldn’t trust the same lad as far as I would throw him…
Pm please
I’d imagine it’s easier to catch people into your web doing ForEx than stocks etc. Everyone is familiar with changing a few quid to a different currency, changing it back when you got home, geez, thats a great rate etc etc.
There’s an existing foundation for them to manipulate.
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Few different reasons… due to liquidity, every currency is reliant on usd direction and the demand for the usd (along with the feds notional supply) , and as noted above I think usd has peaked in this cycle. I also don’t think it matters at what levels it traditionally held.
Capital flows, driven primarily by i/rs, carry trades and investment opportinities are the primary drivers in fx movements (in stable countries and economies). The Australian economy has been rocky for the past 18 mths+ which has seen their i/r go from 1.5% to just over 0% now which has precipitated the depreciation in the aud from 80 cents to below 70 and to below 60 a couple of wks ago. The usd is now at the same i/r more or less but because of the flight to safety (us treasuries of any duration) this bid for the usd happened despite the slashing of us i/r to 0.25%. In normal circumstances this should see the aud climb back towards where it was when it was at 1.5% + i/r (80 cents) . This won’t happen because of the shit we’re in but 70 cents plus is a fairer valuation at current treasury and i/r curves.
The usd had become a risk off currency while the aud is a risk on fx, but thats due to the unprecented crisis(i mean the usd being a safety fx) … Ch-ina is going to continue to grow, no matter what happens and this is a bid for the aud medium/long term due to resources, minerals, economic activity.
Think we’ll see 70 cents before the year is out.
Not getting into the respective debt situations, this of course matters, another time
They’re charlatans and pushing fx bots that don’t work
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