Three beleaguered political leaders surrounded by legal problems probably see such a war as salvation. Iâll leave it to you to figure out who, but hereâs a hint, their first names are Donald, Mohammad, and Benjamin
Note: Theyâll present themselves as peace makers fighting for peace and against extremism and terrorism
Another regime thatâs several years past its expiry date would happily oblige since such a war would also be its salvation. Theyâll be able to draw upon nationalistic narratives after their religious ones expired. Take a guess.
A certain terrorist group thatâs on its last leg and whose douchebag chief shares my surname would also be giddy about such a prospect. Chaos is the environment in which they thrive.
I hope this doesnât come to pass. Its effects on the region would be similar to and probably as severe and long-lasting as the Iraq War was in 2003.
To everyone who reads this, shrugs, and thinks âthis is nuts, it can never happenâ, I have just two words to tell you:
Whoever this chap is seems as clueless on how the US system of government works as you are, quite the achievement.
Only the US Congress has the power to declare war. I doubt very much that a Democrat controlled US House of Representatives would vote for anything Trump wants, let alone war.
This chap is this chap. And he definitely knows a lot more than you do.
Trumpâs mates want to make him another Khashoggi, and Trump would be only too happy if that happened - just like he was when Khashoggi was butchered.
Itâs so quaint and twee how you still live in the fantasy world where whatâs happening in the US right now bears any relation to normality, or that something trivial like Congress would stop Trump going to war.
The US wonât be declaring war on anyone, doesnât mean they canât be sucked in though. Almost inevitable they would be as Iran would ride roughshod over the Sauds in a fair fight.
Saudi v Iran is beginning to seem almost inevitable, though it has looked that way for sometime and never happened. It would have happened already only for the US standing behind the Sauds waiting for a crack at Iran. Really a war between the two would be mutual destruction territory, the house of Saud would be overthrown and the Iranians would be ultimately destroyed by the US.
That said a spark could set it off very quickly and Trump trying to turn the screw on Iran economically means they have less and less to lose all the time. It would quickly escalate into an ideological war Sunni vs Shiite. Which would be horrendously messy. Ethnic cleansing on both sides would probably take place. Iraq would be ripped in two (or three really)
Itâd be like the break up of Yugoslavia again. Everyone split along ethnic lines. Frightening stuff.
Be interesting to see what Israel would do in this scenario, they might sit it out and let them at it, but theyâd likely be supporting the Saudis as well. Enemy of my enemy etc. They might take the chance to extend their own borders while the World is looking elsewhere
Separately I see Erdogan has annulled the result of the Istanbul mayors election as his side lost. Place is basically a full dictatorship now. Another lad who wouldnât mind a war as a distraction and might not take the side of either. Heâs looking for a rebirth of the Ottoman Empire and might take them all on, take in Syria, North Iraq and a few more places.
Iran vs Turkey vs Saudi vs Israel and the Kurds in the middle of it all.
With the US knocking around and the Russians not keen to let Iran be crushed either, and fuck knows where the Chinese would come down.
Itâs a pure powder keg. But then it always has been.
