FFI into the canvassing breach immediately in Dublin Mid West.
They are on the ground, organised and back.
Winning the most Dail seats is merely a prelude to the great political circus of our time next year when B. Ahern goes up against C. McGregor for the presidency.
This election should be about recognising that our entire strategy and positioning has changed and we need to quickly take action to reflect the new reality.
The first thing we should do is recognise the paths between IRL/EU and the US are clearly diverging and we can no longer rely on the US economically or re defence/geo politics. This prob lasts beyond Trump.
We need a much closer Europe - this prob costs us some level of sovereignty but in a world of big beasts Europe needs to become one and we def want to be at that table.
From a specifically Irish perspective our political system needs to explicitly call out this new reality and the implications for Ireland and that this is the biggest strategic risk and challenge facing the country. We need to assume that the MNC tax sugar-rush will likely end and possibly quite quickly. The tax system and public spending framework needs to be adjusted accordingly. Plan for the worst and save any upside. Our defence spending needs to ramp by orders of magnitude and we need to see how we fit into European defence. The self-serving neutrality free-riding needs to be called out and end.
Thatâs just off the top of my head. Prediction - very little of it will happen because thatâs not the type of grownup politics or politicians or electorate we have. Weâll have an election with lots of shouting about some non-issue
I donât think any of that kind of policy gets made in a rush ahead of an election. The tax base needs to be broadened anyway, we know that but FG dismissed the independent report on it as a SF manifesto. Weâre already trying and struggling to upgrade defence spending, we had the commission on the defence forces and are working towards the middle option.
No different to anywhere else so.
I reckon itâll be about housing and health. As it should be.
I absolutely agree that no policy should or will be made now. I was talking more about how the parties campaign and outline to the Irish people the risks we no face and the choices we need to make.
They wonât - as much because the electorate arenât able or blithely not interested in that kind of debate.
Meh.
Health - Slaintecare is agreed by all. Challenge is in the execution but not sure all the parties promising to âdo betterâ is going to really comvince or even whether itâs within their control. Plot-twist itâs the HSE/DoH
Similarly on housing - outbidding each other on the hundreds of thousands of houses theyâll get done - all while the electorate know itâs horseshit numbers pulled from the sky.
Not to say these arenât important but the policy differences are small at this stage vs some of the bigger stuff I mentioned.
What risks or choices that are clearly identifiable now that werenât before?
The problem is Europe itself is going to fall apart. Orban is a malignant cancer growing unchecked, Germany could get a shower of Nazis in power and Le Pen will probably win in 2027. Italy already has a fascist in charge and Austria seems on the brink too. That country is fucking riddled with Russian influence.
Spain currently has a sensible government but that wonât last and the descendants of Franco will inevitably get back at some point in the not too distant future.
Big brother bailout, ie. the US, is gone. Trump will pull them out of NATO and weâll have millions more Ukrainian refugees, in turn accelerating the drive towards European failure.
I think the hope was Trump would be beaten and the US would revert to the position it has largely occupied since WW2.
I think that hope is gone now
What does Ireland suddenly deciding we need a closer Europe or making it an election issue mean or do? Itâs not clear what you mean and I donât think you know yourself. We already needed to wide the tax base but itâs FG policy to ignore that and FF policy not to plan for for the future. Defence reform is already in train. The government tried very hard to raise awareness around security, I donât think it got anywhere.
The most major and immediate issues facing us are still the same ones. And if we donât actually address them we will end up with an electorate like the US and UK willing to vote for Brexit/Trump/whatever the fuck it canât get any worse.
Europeans are increasingly looking for less of European centralism. A policy encouraging this is bad for Ireland. Weâll have our own version of Trump in ten years.
Iâd like to hear a party or party leader explicitly raise it as an issue - make the case that weâve some tough choices to make in particular on taxation/spending and the shibboleth of Irish neutrality vs Irish defence. I agree that the current gov have largely ignored the tax issue and that efforts around the defence question have had very limited impact (and the usual lefty dismissive response).
This strikes me as one of those things that the electorate in several years amidst some crisis resulting from this inaction will jump up and down wondering why something wasnât done at the time.
I donât see it as excluding action on housing or the continued funding of health. Itâs not either/or
Ireland is odd. FFG have been spending like drunken sailors for over half a decade but the social media warriors will tell you they are austerity loving Tories. Ordinarily, as incumbents giving the prevailing mood worldwide, offering more of the same with tweaks round the edges should leave them vulnerable to opposition promising some nebulous âchangeâ. However here, the opposition is the Shinners whoâve morphed into the Tories circa 1995 with scandals and own goals everywhere, a smattering of left parties without a fag paper between them on policy but couldnât agree on anything, and a load of bog trotting independents who Wade through floods in Wellingtons.
How convenient
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1854495389883244714?t=HCMpCPXQu5rFdsuJFBAOVQ&s=19
His Joe Rogan moment
Inflation
War in Ukraine
The pandemic
Change in tax rules
Brexit
Trumpâs first term
Iâd say the message for the government is that they figured out them all and our economy just got stronger when others floundered
If you look at it, nobody has brought up the economy as an issue as they canât really be touched on it.
Whatâs odd in Ireland is that a campaign strategy based around the economy has basically been ignored since 2016 when Fine Gael tried it. Perhaps it will come back.
Ireland canât dictate where they are going to go, all they can do is manage their way through stuff. I suspect like Climate Change that the Occupied Territories Bill will become a luxury item for people if they start worrying about their jobs.
Will they go to the opposition for salvation on that? I doubt it. Thereâs zero alternative ideas on how to run the economy outside of Paul Murphyâs occasional leak about crushing the bourgeoise.
Iâm currently testing a unique retractable Skibbidy Toilet branded phone pouch with extras which I created. I wish to make application to tender on this contract. Who do I lobby on this? I have a One for All ready for fifty and or a Woodies voucher of same value.
No need to lobby Neil. Just make a submission when the tender is published on e-tenders. You can tell them i sent you and throw a few scoops my wayâŚ