I still think Leo wanted to be in opposition this time to rejuvenate him.
I wouldnāt be shocked if he bows out of the game soon enough
Hot Rod is probably most at threat in his constituency. His left transfers could be gone next time.
Itās going to be a clusterfuck next time around.
I think Varadkar will turn people off voting for FG that donāt already do so. He is just such a toxic and elitist individual that unless you come from that sort of entitled upbringing then he is simply unrelatable. Martin on the other hand just seems incompetent and unfit for the job so isnāt going to bring back any lost voters or attract new ones.
Iād have SF to gain 9 seats.
I think they are certs for +1 in the following constituencies
Donegal
Dublin Fingal
Dublin BN
Dublin SW
Dublin SC
Waterford
I think they have really good chances of extra seats in
Louth
Cavan Monaghan
Leitrim Sligo
Limerick County
Galway East
Rathdown
Iām guessing they will get 4 of that 6.
I think the following seats could be tricky to hold
Meath x2
Kildare x2
Clare
I think they will probably hold on to 4 of those.
So thatās where I think the 9 will come from.
I think FF are now pretty much a Munster party, they have lost their base in Connacht Ulster completely to SF and FG seems to be the top dogs in the rural Leinster areas now. FG have the affluent urban Leinster areas wrapped up but I do think Varadkar makes them very offputting for crossover voters.
I expect the Greens to hold quite steady and would also expect SD to increase their share.
This next election for FF will be almost a total wipeout for them outside of Munster counties.
Whatās your rationale for them gaining one in fingal?
They might get one extra in Limerick County as the poor space cadet is being forced out.
LOR having around a 50% surplus last time round.
A General Election would be great craic at the moment with the speculation, ball-hopping, political shenanigans etc. I reckon Lockdown till May would be far more palatable if they threw in an election as a distraction.
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It would be outstanding right now.
I would make the following predictions:
SF 45-50
FG 30-35
FF 25-30
Independents 20~
Greens 10~
SD 10~
Labour 5~
PBP 5~
Peadar
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It will be a SF/FF coalition. The Mehole wing of FF will be wiped out. The remainder of the party are more amenable to SF.
FF will do it for self-preservation. Iād imagine something along the lines of SF/FF/SD/Greens coalition.
A base of say
SF 46
FF 27
Greens 11
SD 10
Gives a nice safety net there for stability.
Ff and Fg are nailed on for 1 seat each. Fingal has a very strong green history and youād imagine Fingal Joe is safe, especially given the hyperactivity of the local active travel enthusiasts. LOR obviously takes hers. Big Dunc scraped in by the skin of his testicles last time. Heās vulnerable, but itās to Dean Mulligan the Clare Daly nominee, who has been working hard in swords for years. I think one of those 2 gets in. Add in the fact that SF were decimated in the locals so they donāt actually have many councillors to be banging out leaflets and doing reps. Itās nowhere near being a cert.
SF are evens to get the most seats in the next election.
Charge???
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If the election was in the next year absolutely.
SF will definitely having a running mate for LOR next time around so Iād say they have a very good shout if they can keep ahead of the Mulligan chap you refer to.
It will be interesting to see where SF run Lynn Boylan in Dublin next time out. Iād imagine they would be very confident of getting both her and Ni Riada in.
DLR might be a good place for Boylan as she is a bit more palatable to the middle classes.
If an election was held now anyone thinking the Greens will get 10 seats or more needs sectioning. They will lose all of their rural seats at a minimum and a few in Dublin. Five of their tds got in because of SF surplus distribution last time. They are finished with the floating voter because of the mother and baby homes and being a FFG mudguard.
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I donāt see who the Greens lose their votes to and where they have rural votes?
Are all their seats not in urban areas?
I think Hazel Chu has been building a big profile up and will poll very well with liberal/woke crew next time around also.
I understand this but what do you think ROG had to do with the mother and baby homes report or could have done better? Iām genuinely interested.
Hazel is in sleepy Eamonās constituency.
Perception is more important than fact to the floating voter. He was the face of it, a mess not of his making but itāll be thrown at him for life.
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Iād imagine they will move her to some other affluent constituency where they see an opportunity.