Ireland politics (Part 1)

[Fagan_ODowd]

@GeoffreyBoycott

The government won’t be too far off the magic number of 80.

FG are currently on broadly 30% across the range of polls; on the day I reckon they’ll probably get 33-34%.

Looking at it about a week ago and I had FG/Labour on a combined total of around 81-82. Within that there are at least 8 or 9 seats that will go to one of the government parties but it’s not clear which one. On a good day for Labour you’re looking at a 64-17 split, on a bad day 69-12. Labour are in deep trouble in some of those soft seats they won nationwide and possibly even in some of their stronger seats outside Dublin. I do think Labour will do much better in Dublin than generally forecast.

For FF I came up with I think 33-34, IRA/SF around 20-21. Something like 22-23 ‘others’. FF are likely to struggle in Dublin but also in any constituency where there are complications – the rural Cork seats for instance – where they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place as regards a single candidate strategy or a second runner to cover the rest of the seat.

I’m forecasting that Tommy Broughan will hold the balance of power. It will be a bumper day for South Fingal.

[GeoffreyBoycott]

@Julio_Geordio

I did a quick look vs the Irish Times guesstimates and you seem to be way under for Labour and over for SF. Not saying you are right or wrong btw, just pointing it out.

Looking at Labour in Dublin the surefire bets would appear to be:

•      Mrs Patrick Carroll (Dublin West): should be dragged in on Doc Leo’s surplus and Catherine Noone’s votes. The big plus is that the FG threat of swiping a Lab seat through the back door is less likely here
  

•      Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal): His brother was a shock loser in 1997 but even on a bad day hard to see lightning striking twice. There’s an extra seat in the constituency too. FG are the likelier losers if there’s a government casualty here.
  

•      Eric Byrne (Dublin SC): He’s been written off in some quarters after boundary changes, coupled with a lot of leftist challengers. This is very strong Labour territory though and he should be okay.
  

Seats they will probably take:

•      Joanna Tuffy (Dublin MW):  There’s a lot of competition here for the ‘left of Labour’ vote, I also wouldn’t write off FG but ultimately enough voters here who will have a preference for Labour over FG. Also despite a lot of hype around John Curran I don’t see FF at the races here.
  

•      Pamela Kearns (Dublin SW): This is another place they’ve been written off in.  This is a new constituency though with 39,000 voters being transferred in from Dublin South. By rights FG should be taking two out of five here but with no sitting TD will struggle. Nevertheless they’ll likely have enough votes to drag Kearns (who is based in the old seat but close to the extended section) in with Anne-Marie Dermody. FF should be taking a seat here too but some talk of John Lahart struggling; if he doesn’t make it then Kearns is an even safer bet.
  

•      Kevin Humphreys (Dublin Bay South): This guy is underestimated. He has a good base in the often overlooked inner city end of the constituency. Provided he stays ahead of Kate O’Connell he should be ok. Eamonn Ryan will eat into Labour’s vote but the likely strong showing of Mrs Paul Bradford reduces the threat of a FG ambush – on a really good (or lucky) day for FG though they could conceivably oust him.
  

There are a couple of 50/50s:

•      Aodhan O Riordain (Dublin Bay North): Most pundits have him down as a hold, I think partly on the basis that he’s seen off the other two Labour TDs and will have the ticket to himself.  DBN though is a very convoluted constituency and I just wouldn’t like to call it. A lot could depend here on who’s ahead in the other parties, e.g. Heney or Haughey, Finian or Tom Broughan etc.  On balance, I'd take Aodhan to lose out.
  

•      John Lyons (Dublin NW): On one reading he’s up against it with Shortall taking a lot of ex-party votes. On the flip side though, this constituency as it stands is no-go zone for FG, although the boundary changes will help them. A lot of hype around this Noel Rock guy but he’ll have his work cut out for him and if Lyons can stay ahead of him he’ll likely make it off his transfers.
  

•      Joe Costello (Dublin Central): You could repeat the comments on Dublin NW here, except that boundary changes are bad for FG here but that the the FG candidate Paschal won't lack in name recognition. 
  

This leaves just Dublin Rathdown and Dun Laoghaire. The Labour vote here actually held up well enough in parts in the locals. This strikes you as the sort of place we’ll see a pro-government swing; it also strikes you though as the sort of place where FG will be the beneficiaries. Essentially in both seats you have a sure fire FG seat and an independent seat with the last seat probably between FF, FG and Labour. You’d probably make these less than 50/50 bets for Labour, especially in DL where the non-aligned seat is very much to the left; Minister White though might scrape back in Rathdown.

[carryharry]

Fuck, you’re a long way from home today. Safe journey.

[Watch_The_Break]

This is interesting.

How well do you really know your country? Take our quiz

[Julio_Geordio]

@Watch_The_Break

This is interesting.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/dec/02/how-well-do-you-really-know-your-country-take-our-quiz

Nailed it.

[croppy_boy]

I’m shocked that lads are questioning O’Riordain’s ability to get himself elected.

He already had to move constituency for the last General Election, and got elected with some space to spare. Since then he’s continued a meteoric rise to be appointed as Junior Minister, be seen as the figurehead (from a political point of view) in the Marriage Equality referendum and has somehow managed to steer clear of the stench that is associated with most Labour Ministers like Burton, Kelly, etc.

I’m calling it now, not only will he be elected but he’ll be the elected leader of Labour during the life of the next Dáil.

[Fagan_ODowd]

@croppy_boy

I’m shocked that lads are questioning O’Riordain’s ability to get himself elected.

He already had to move constituency for the last General Election, and got elected with some space to spare. Since then he’s continued a meteoric rise to be appointed as Junior Minister, be seen as the figurehead (from a political point of view) in the Marriage Equality referendum and has somehow managed to steer clear of the stench that is associated with most Labour Ministers like Burton, Kelly, etc.

I’m calling it now, not only will he be elected but he’ll be the elected leader of Labour during the life of the next Dáil.

This is the chap who was bullied relentlessly at school by a number of forumites and labelled Gaydawn O Queerdawn by them. He’s overcome tougher challenges than being elected to Dublin Bay North and I concur with your prediction that he will lead the Labour Party.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Fagan_ODowd

Gaydawn O Queerdawn

classic

[TreatyStones]

@Fagan_ODowd

Gaydawn O Queerdawn

That’s the guy we need to elect
(the guy who made up the nickname)

[Massey]

There must be a lot of lads posting on here who work for the civil service

[Julio_Geordio]

@TreatyStones

@Fagan_ODowd

Gaydawn O Queerdawn

That’s the guy we need to elect
(the guy who made up the nickname)

This country needs innovators

[ProjectX]

@Fagan_ODowd

This is the chap who was bullied relentlessly at school by a number of forumites and labelled Gaydawn O Queerdawn by them. He’s overcome tougher challenges than being elected to Dublin Bay North and I concur with your prediction that he will lead the Labour Party.

He is the Irish version of Jeremy Corbyn. Wildly liberal and if he became leader it would likely be the final nail in what’s left of the labour coffin.

[Julio_Geordio]

@ProjectX

@Fagan_ODowd

This is the chap who was bullied relentlessly at school by a number of forumites and labelled Gaydawn O Queerdawn by them. He’s overcome tougher challenges than being elected to Dublin Bay North and I concur with your prediction that he will lead the Labour Party.

He is the Irish version of Jeremy Corbyn. Wildly liberal and if he became leader it would likely be the final nail in what’s left of the labour coffin.

God forbid the labour party actually stood for something

[croppy_boy]

Whereas the former leader of The Worker Party and an up to that point renowned Socialist Eamon Gilmore was a nice safe bet.

[corner_back]

@Elvis_Brandenberg_Kr

SF will win most most of their seats by either topping the poll or being a close second. They’re transfer-toxic from the establishment parties. They’ll certainly return most of the seats you mentioned, though I don’t think they’ll take two in Cavan/Monaghan - a Fianna Fail gain there, I think.

They’ll pick up a few in working class city constituencies, Limerick being a surprise outside bet here. I still don’t see them topping more than 20 seats in total. A lot of Labour losses will be FF gains in constituencies such as Clare, Laois-Offaly, Tipperary North etc. FG will lose over 15 seats but will still be around the 60-mark. I’m predicting a clusterfuck of negotiations to form a government as there will be multiple options available.

Laois Offaly doesn’t have a Labour TD. Laois and Offaly will be separate constituencies next year. I predict Laois will remain one FF one FG and one SF. Offaly has an extra seat which is very hard to call. They’ll have one FF one FG and last seat could be any of Renua, SF, FF or independent (recently FF, see man with beard see 1.09 below).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InkL_qou54I

[Juhniallio]

Quite possible although I think it might be a little too early for him. I think some within the party see o riordàin as very impulsive.

[iron_mike]

Anybody here John McGuinness yesterday? If you still think FF wont do a deal with SF assuming the figures stack up, think again.

[tallback]

Anyone hear the SF girl on RTE yesterday still equivocating about the Jerry McCabe murder - and this one of the “new breed” too.

The mask slipped big time.

[the_mixer_walsh]

Ya I was listening to it. It was kind of a wow moment. You couldn’t have much faith in a candidate that doesn’t even know her party’s position on a matter as prominent as this. Although the type of person that sees fit to award their no 1 to this candidate most propably wasn’t old enough to understand the callousness of the murder at the time and therefore it won’t register to highly with them. She sounded like a poor candidate up to that point anyway and a quick check of her Twitter profile would confirm this.

I wonder would McGuinness (John) have been so bullish about a SF coalition if she had refused to condemn the murder earlier in the programme rather than at the very end. I though Claire Byrne let her off the hook too.

[Massey]

The usual bullshit TSG