Lockdown 2.0 showed again the mistake of thinking lockdowns above all. Cases were falling before the lockdown as people had altered their behaviour. That was an occasion where NPHET did try to preempt a surge (when Holohan asked for Level 5 10 days before implemented) so that likely influenced things but it is what it is. NPHET’s estimates of how high cases would go didn’t materialise as people had already altered behaviour. Crucially though it showed the diminishing power of several week long lockdowns as the case number plateaued and indeed started to effectively increase before the Christmas reopening. Once again, people preempted the Government, the fear wasn’t there for many and they started socialising again before bars and restaurants reopened. NPHET then got spooked because their second lockdown had not worked and the cases on the promised reopening point were higher than they had modelled.
People who claim that Ireland would have put up with an effective 6-8 month lockdown (October 2020-April 2021) are disingenuous liars. There is not one country on earth who have had as long an effective lockdown and where the citizens would put up with it.
The proof is in the pudding with various control groups like Florida and Sweden. The hospitalisation curves went up and down at remarkable similarity to other places with smaller restrictions being brought in. People are not idiots and they react to data. This idea that Ireland would have clocked world record infection numbers in January 2021 and human behaviour wouldn’t have changed is a nonsense. Ireland did not need to keep schools closed, ban outdoor sports, stop outdoor hospitality and construction well in March/April.
As I said to you all the time, the guiding light for me was Denmark where they actively avoided lockdowns after their first one. They tried targeted restrictions, mass testing and tracing, ventilation etc and threw the kitchen sink at it. They had a second lockdown and their government apologised, the second one being nowhere near as severe as Ireland’s and far shorter, with it being as much about having the requisite social programmes in order as anything else.
It should be clear that I was never against targeted restrictions, social distancing, government testing etc. My criticism since April 2020 was the unnecessary prolonged shutdowns of places like schools and construction & nonsensical performative restrictions like MHQ once the virus already had a firm grip on this part of the world. The costs of stopping construction for 3 months far outweighs any notional Nolan modelled “benefit” on R. The proof is again in the pudding with the case data in 2021, we never got near to double digit daily case rates again. Diminishing returns that accrues costs in other areas.
We were talking about hospitals overflowing here. Interestingly enough, 2 years on, it is the reason that NZ are still locking down and denying entry of their citizens to the country.
Trying to figure out how effective each individual restriction was is a tough ask as there are many variables although this doesn’t stop the likes of you from ridiculing most of them. To suggest, as I think you are, that had restrictions not been reintroduced after Christmas 2020 that we would have had the same number of hospitalisations and fatalities is just bonkers.
You understandably don’t like the fatality metric being brought up, laughably calling it deflection. The countries who decided to go for the let it rip approach fared far worse than those that went for the cautious approach. The proof is in the pudding as you’d say yourself. It will be interesting to see if the economic benefits of sacrificing so many lives will actually be realised. I’m sure you will find some metric that will convince you financial gain was made by those who allowed so many die unnecessarily.
I didn’t say that. I said it likely made very little difference to the curve. This is, once again, borne out in countries with all sorts of levels of restrictions. The thing usually rises and falls in the space of a couple of months. The data doesn’t pick up the first couple of weeks of rising cases and is late to the peak.
Again, the evidence shows that cases in Ireland were falling pre Lockdown 2.0 and rising before the end of the lockdown. Peoples behaviour alters, it happens over and over no matter the restrictions.
In terms of the fatality statistic, let’s be clear, you brought it up as you had run out of road on the argument you were failing to put forward. We were discussing the hospital curves in places not pursuing Zero Covid. Why not compare New York to Florida?
In terms of what works and what doesn’t, what I am certain about is that Ireland keeping constructions, schools and outdoor activists closed for several months from December to try and suppress the virus was a major mistake.
The missus will let him have 2 cans before the dinner