You simply don’t have a clue of the prevailing mood of the US public. First of all Americans have a short memory, Obama had some pretty unsavory connections in his background, Bill Clinton had all the public affairs that would get you fired in the corporate world. Americans love winners and Trump is a winner, even better a winner who failed several times and got up and won again.
Trump has one huge advantage. The country is angry and Clinton is associated with the thing they are angry at, the political establishment and big business donations that buy political decisions. Trump can shoot holes through that all day every day until November.
“…We know, for example, that Trump pulls a disproportionate share of his support from voters without a college degree, so he tends to do better in contests with less-educated electorates. Our targets take these kinds of demographic dynamics into account. Looking forward, Trump should win more delegates in states with fewer college-educated voters. If Trump hits his targets in the remaining contests, he’ll end up with 1,276 delegates out of 2,472 — 52 percent…”
No, you change your opinion as the facts change. This is the most dynamic US primary season in living memory, if not in history. I still think the Republicans have a chance to stop Trump, but they are running out of time. The biggest problem is there is no viable alternative candidate that is building any momentum. When you see Romney out campaigning against Trump it shows how desperate they are.
Louis Farrakhan, Jeremiah Wright, Rod Blagojevich. I do think the Bill Ayers connection was overblown, but the other 3 were swept under the carpet by Obama supporters. Debatable whether any other candidate could have survived them.
The debates will be an interesting challenge for Hillary. Bush II was an clueless fuckwit back in 1999 and Gore never punished him for it. He let too many of the debates end inconclusively rather than appear arrogant in schooling Bush on policy, and he let Bush into the race.
It’s a similar task that Hillary faces. Trump couldn’t know less about policy but that’s part of his outsider appeal. In exposing his complete lack of detailed knowledge on every issue Clinton might only reinforce her image as a career crony politician and make Trump seem like even more of a revolutionary figure. He’ll give simple ‘common sense’ answers against which evidence isn’t even a useful weapon.
Well, she will definitely get more votes from women than Trump! It’s not like voting for president of Ireland though which seems mostly personality based, in that women with strong Republican leanings would never vote for Hillary or any Democrat. The Republicans are totally out of touch on social issues, still fighting battles that were lost long ago. The interesting thing about Trump is he can break with that “conservative” message and be more liberal on social issues, and has a fairly liberal background to pull it off. There is a real schism now within the Republican party, Trump’s trump card (with apologies to @Sidney, the king of puns) is that those leading the fight against him (Romney, McCain) lost elections so he can easily paint them as the failure wing of Republicans. It’s fascinating stuff, but this was always going to happen once the Repubs allowed the Tea Party gain such power and set the agenda.
