Post up the evidence that this newly identified strain in the UK is 70% more contagious than other strains, actual scientific evidence and not what complete assholes in the UK government say.
Here’s a little clue for you. The Netherlands which was the first to stop flights from the UK had 24.2k new cases over the past two days, or 1,400 cases per million people. The UK had 55.5K new cases in the same period, or 817 per million. But the Netherlands are terrified of this English new strain?
It’s a load of bollox from Boris the clown mate, and the EU are sticking it to him for his stupidity.
Of all the nonsense regarding Covid, the shite talk on how contagious the virus is takes the biscuit. In the reporting from the UK, government officials are quoted as saying the R number is increasing from 1.1-1.2 to 1.4 due to this new strain. It’s complete horseshit. The basic reproductive number R0 is at least 3 and maybe 5 or 6. The actual transmission rate Rt depends on a multitude of factors, but it basically comes down to how many people are interacting closely with other people in a location where the virus is in circulation. What drives the Rt up is people’s behavior, far more than the genomic sequence of the individual strain.
But Chris Whitty and John Edmonds are saying it’s real. Now, who knows, maybe I’m naive, but these are actual experts, and I don’t think they’d make stuff up for the fun of it.
If there is even a chance that what they are saying is true, then it’s a very serious development and countries are right to shut down travel from the UK.
Would you agree that a virus with the same effects but with 70% increased transmissibility would be a very serious public health matter, more serious than the already serious situation?
And that therefore, approaching the situation on the basis that this news is true is by far the most rational approach for policy makers?
The virus in circulation is already highly infectious, the main reason efforts to suppress it are failing. The mutation of the spike protein that made it more infectious happened back in January and became the dominant strain over the following months. As I said I’ve seen no evidence that this claimed English strain is any more infectious than the virus in circulation in the rest of Europe and the US.
I suspect the UK government are looking at rising numbers and panicking.
Its all so very sad. On the plus side however @Padraig_O_Gammon looks like being an outstanding addition to the forum and I for one just cannot wait to hear his views on the recent election held in the USA
