If Sidney were still around he would claim it started in Kansas.
The Kan-sas Virus. It started in Kan-sas
Article is behind a paywall, copy it in if you can. Thanks.
28,000 Missing Deaths:
Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
By Jin Wu, Allison McCann, Josh Katz and Elian PeltierUpdated April 22, 2020, 12:30 PM E.T.
2020
2020
5,000
weekly
deaths
15,000
weekly
deaths
Deaths in 2020
15,000
weekly
deaths
2020
10,000
weekly
deaths
Historical average
Historical average
Historical average
Historical average
France
England & Wales
Spain
Netherlands
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
2020
2020
2020
2020
2,000
weekly
deaths
2,000
weekly
deaths
3,000
weekly
deaths
3,500
monthly
burials
Historical average
Historical average
Historical average
Historical average
Belgium
Sweden
Jakarta, Indonesia
Istanbul, Turkey
No data
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
.
At least 28,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic over the last month than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 11 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.
In the last month, far more people died in these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.
Where we found higher deaths than normal
| AREA | PCT. ABOVE NORMAL | EXCESS DEATHS | − | REPORTED COVID-19 DEATHS | = | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 | 66% | 19,700 | − | 12,401 | = | 7,300 |
| France | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 | 32% | 14,500 | − | 8,059 | = | 6,500 |
| England & Wales | ||||||
| Mar. 7 - Apr. 10 | 33% | 16,700 | − | 10,335 | = | 6,300 |
| New York City | ||||||
| Mar. 11 - Apr. 18 | 298% | 17,200 | − | 13,240 | = | 4,000 |
| Netherlands | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 | 33% | 4,000 | − | 2,166 | = | 1,900 |
| Istanbul | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 12 | 29% | 2,100 | − | 1,006 | = | 1,100 |
| Jakarta | ||||||
| March | 36% | 1,000 | − | 84 | = | 900 |
| Switzerland | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 | 21% | 1,000 | − | 712 | = | 300 |
| Belgium | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 | 25% | 2,300 | − | 2,373 | = | -30 |
| Sweden | ||||||
| Mar. 9 - Apr. 12 | 12% | 1,100 | − | 1,160 | = | -50 |
Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes. Reported Covid-19 deaths reflect official coronavirus deaths during the period when mortality data is available. In Belgium, England and Wales, the Covid-19 deaths reflect the revised death figures from Belgium’s Sciensano and U.K.’s Office of National Statistics. Istanbul reported deaths include those for all of Turkey, as city-level data has not been made public.
These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.
Of course, mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. The disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths most likely reflect limited testing for the virus, rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, about 165,000 people have died worldwide of the coronavirus as of Tuesday.
But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
“Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. “In a lot of places the pandemic has been going on for long enough that there has been sufficient time for late death registrations to come in, giving us a more accurate picture of what the mortality really was.”
The differences are particularly stark in countries that have been slow to acknowledge the scope of the problem. Istanbul, for example, recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 through April 12 — roughly double the number of coronavirus deaths the government reported for the entire country in that period.
Deaths in Istanbul
2,100+ excess deaths between March 9 and April 12
2020
2,000
weekly
deaths
2018-2019
weekly average
1,000
No data
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Source: Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. | Note: Data for the first weeks are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.
The increase in deaths in mid-March suggests that many people who died had been infected in February, weeks before Turkey officially acknowledged its first case.
In March, the Indonesian government attributed 84 deaths to the coronavirus in Jakarta. But over 1,000 people more than normal were buried in Jakarta cemeteries that month, according to data from the city’s Department of Parks and Cemeteries. (The data was first reported by Reuters.)
Number of burials reported in Jakarta, Indonesia
1,000 excess burials reported in March
2020
4,000
monthly
burials
3,000
2,000
2010-2019
monthly average
1,000
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Source: Jakarta Department of Parks and Cemeteries.
We estimated the excess mortality for each country by comparing the number of people who died from all causes this year with the historical average during the same period. The Economist is also tracking these deaths, known as excess deaths, in this way.
In many European countries, recent data show 20 to 30 percent more people have been dying than normal. That translates to tens of thousands of more deaths.
Spain
England & Wales
19,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
16,700+ excess deaths from Mar. 7 to Apr. 10
2020
15,000
weekly
deaths
15,000
weekly
deaths
5,000
2010-2019
weekly average
5,000
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
France
14,500+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
2020
15,000
weekly
deaths
2019
2010-2018
weekly average
5,000
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded, as they may represent partial weeks.
In some countries, like Belgium and France, authorities are working to include Covid-19 deaths outside of hospitals in their daily reports, or by adjusting the overall Covid-19 death totals once a death is confirmed in places like nursing or retirement homes.
Others, like Britain’s Office for National Statistics, have started to release mortality data after death certificates have been processed, confirming those that mention Covid-19. This provides a more accurate account of mortality than the hospital figures released each day by Public Health England, however the data is delayed about two weeks.
Deviations from normal patterns of deaths have been confirmed in many European countries, according to data released by the European Mortality Monitoring Project, a research group that collects weekly mortality data from 24 European countries.
Netherlands
Belgium
4,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
2,300+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
2020
2020
4,000
weekly
deaths
3,000
weekly
deaths
2,000
1995-2019
weekly average
2015-2019
weekly average
1,000
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Sweden
Switzerland
1,100+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 12
1,000+ excess deaths from Mar. 9 to Apr. 5
2020
2020
2,000
weekly
deaths
1,500
weekly
deaths
1,000
1,000
2015-2019
weekly average
2016-2019
weekly average
500
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Dec.
Notes: Data from weeks 1, 52 and 53 are excluded as they are incomplete in certain years.
It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.
“At this stage, it’s a partial snapshot,” said Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the United Nations. “It’s one view of the problem that reflects that most acute side of the situation, primarily through the hospital-based system.”
That is likely to change.
“In the next couple of months,” Mr. Gerland said, “a much clearer picture will be possible.”
Age breakdowns in mortality data could provide an even clearer picture of the role of Covid-19 in excess deaths. In Sweden, for example, a high mortality rate among men age 80 and older accounted for the largest increase in deaths, suggesting that the overall numbers understate the severity of the outbreak for older people in particular.
Even taking into account the new numbers, experts say the death toll to date could have been much worse.
“Today’s rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts,” said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.”
Correction: An earlier version of a chart with this article misstated the average historical number of deaths in France during the first week of April. More complete historical data has since been added. The average for the week is about 11,000, not 9,400.
About the data: The all-cause mortality data obtained from each country varies: Some countries publish daily death totals dating back decades, and others only for the last few years. Places with less historical data, such as Istanbul, make for rougher historical comparisons. Historical baselines used to calculate excess deaths do not adjust for changes in population or any expected reduction in recent deaths from non-Covid-19 causes. And they do not adjust for two deadly flu epidemics in Europe during the winters of 2014-15 and 2017-18. The count of recent deaths in New York City includes city residents only, while data from previous years includes all deaths in the city regardless of residence.
Sources: Stephane Helleringer, Johns Hopkins University; Vladimir Shkolnikov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Tom Moultrie, University of Cape Town; Patrick Gerland, United Nations; S V Subramanian, Harvard University; Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality; Jakarta Department of Parks and Cemeteries; Daily Mortality Surveillance System (Spain); Statistics Netherlands; National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (France); Federal Statistical Office (Switzerland); Leroy Mathias, Dupont Yves, Bossuyt Nathalie, Bustos Sierra Natalia. Epistat, Belgium Mortality Monitoring, Sciensano (Belgium); Statistics Sweden; Office for National Statistics (England & Wales); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (New York City).
Muktita Suhartono contributed reporting.
That’s very readable
4 Likes
Its not really
You could get vertigo reading that.
3 Likes
Trump to a reporter asking the CDC director a question “You weren’t called” pointing the finger! 
Trump is basically saying Corona is gone and not coming back.
Georgia governor on his own now.
coccinellids that for us there.
What reasoning, I never mentioned the shut-down one way or another.
The corona virus sucks
Trump looking very tired here
“The virus sucks”.
In lots as of ways. Directly responsible for deaths obviously, but also responsible for indirect deaths, and we may be seeing the tip of the iceberg there. How many people are dying because they are not been taken to hospital, and will die because they are not being treated? It’s a very complicated issue.
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How long until Donald denies promoting hydroxychloroquine?
He’s already got rid of a doctor(director of US health department’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) who refused to endorse the treatment.
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Preliminary results from the first antibody study in New York city suggest that 21% have already been infected and recovered. Much lower rate in the rest of NY state.
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That works out to a calculated mortality rate of ~0.75% for NYC and NY state, significantly higher than the studies in California and Germany.
#NO2 #BCG
Trump up early tonight because of the draft 