Beatings will continue until morale improves
NPHET modelling was particularly shite the surge never came
The HSE has told the State’s public health team that it has not always been possible to give extra protection to unvaccinated people in hospitals because of the way they are set up.
During a meeting of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on August 25th, members discussed the “disproportionate impact that the current wave of cases is having on those who are unvaccinated or who are experiencing waning immunity” and this was “noted with concern”.
Newly released minutes of the meeting show members discussed hospitalisations and the need to be able to triage vaccinated and unvaccinated patients into “separate streams”.
The HSE confirmed during the meeting that while hospitals have been told to determine the vaccination status of patients on admission and to protect those who are unvaccinated where possible, “in some cases the infrastructure does not allow for this”.
The need for “prompt identification of patients with high grade immunosuppression who are at high risk of breakthrough infections and ICU admission” was also stressed.
Amid concerns about the spread of Covid-19 in hospitals, the health service is carrying out extensive testing of asymptomatic fully-vaccinated staff and patients.
“When new asymptomatic infections of fully-vaccinated patients and staff are detected, they are managed as infectious cases.”
The Nphet members discussed a study of healthcare workers in the Netherlands which found that 68 per cent of vaccinated health care workers who suffered a breakthrough infection were found to be hosting “infectious virus cultures” in comparison to 85 per cent of unvaccinated healthcare workers.
“These findings indicate that there is still a significant risk that a vaccinated person can transmit the virus,” the meeting heard.
Low mortality
Modelling projections were also discussed at the meeting which heard that there continues to be relatively low mortality related to Covid-19.
The modelling group shared a range of updated potential scenarios which factored in the transmission of the Delta variant and the success of the vaccination programme as well as other factors.
In optimistic scenarios, case counts would peak at 2,500-3,000 cases per day in mid-September, with later peaks in healthcare demand seeing 500-700 people in hospital and 80-130 people in ICU.
Central scenarios showed the peak at between 3,000 to 5,000 cases per day, with between 750 and 1300 in hospital and 150-250 people requiring critical care. The group was said to be conducting “additional work to update these scenarios, to further examine the possible effects of school opening, and to provide additional detail on possible scenarios beyond October 2021”.
The actual coronavirus case numbers and hospitalisations have tracked well below these scenarios.
On Monday, there were 1,154 further confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Ireland.
The latest available figures also show there are 297 patients hospitalised with the virus, of which 63 are in ICU.
In fairness their optimistic scenario numbers aren’t a million miles off today’s numbers.
They are a fair bit off. Thankfully.
There have been 1,423 new cases of Covid-19 reported by the Department of Health this afternoon.
286 people with Covid-19 are receiving treatment in hospitals around the country, down 11 from yesterday.
63 of these patients are being treated in intensive care units, unchanged since yesterday
Well yeah they’re off thankfully but for ICU numbers 63 is not far off their lower band of 80.
Its 20% off their most optimistic scenario. That is absolutely woeful and what’s more everybody knew at time their model was way off. The figures made no sense.
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Are the models not based on the proposed removing of restrictions? So when restrictions stay in place the scenario changes?
I’ve not really been a defender of NPHET hasn’t this been the case with modelling all through? “Look, X prediction never happened”, “yeah because y restrictions were introduced”?
Well I suppose my expectations around modelling accuracy have been lowered somewhat in the last 18 months 
When the model range is so wide it ceases to be useless as a tool.
It does help explain the HSE approach to the Children’s Hospital tenders.
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Not this time around. These models supposedly allowed for various changes in restrictions. The optimistic model allowed for a very moderate relaxing of restrictions.
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We will charge you between 500 million and 3 billion for the hospital.
Done.
Fair enough. I mean it’s not like their record is great anyway but I always figured there was at least plausible reasons they were off.
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That’s actually hilarious, that’s like if I was a mayor - “Enough about the masks and me breaking this law I’m making you all follow, the real story is that kick-ass band!”
We was awwwlll vaxinayted, yessirreeee.
(Side effects include sanctimonious, hypocrisy, entitlement and a good senator clay davis impersonation)
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They were “scaremongering” dressed up as models
That’s obviously terrible but the US has something like three times the population that it had then
Enthralling.
This woman most likely forgot to pay for her beachside coffee
Think that’s from a year ago. Pretty irresponsible parenting bringing a child to an apparent protest. If only she’d gone to the beach for a coffee instead 
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