I thought these were a joke but an actual CNN corespondent tweeted them out.
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He had a bad night alright. Give a fool enough rope and you know what will happen
The IHME modelers at the University of Washington have just reduced their total fatalities for the UK to 23,721 by August 4th. This is down from 67K a week ago, they are now saying the UK has reached it’s peak. Ireland is at 527 deaths by August 4th, with the peak already passed. That sounds low.
I’m starting to lose a little faith in these guys as well, they seem to be basing their models mainly on mitigation efforts, which may or may not be any better a predictor than other factors. If you look at Sweden, where almost no mitigation efforts were made, they are now predicting the peak being reached in another 25 days with total deaths of 18,322. That makes no sense unless I’m missing something, surly the curve would be much steeper now like Italy in the second half of March.
Best television in ages last night. He was fucking seething. He had a right go off some lass in a red guna . I think she was CNN
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He said iirc that Ivanka had created 15 million jobs.
I keep telling ye lads, these briefings are gold.
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Astra zeneca are beginning a global clinical trial using their blood cancer drug calquence, which they are saying early signs shows it suppresses the lung inflammation that is killing critical patients.
Sure the UK are massaging their figures, the Italians & Spanish were so fucked they’ve no idea what their figures really were. Chi-na has the whole city of Wuhan put into urns, but is claiming only 3k deaths.
You’d hardly trust Iran either and the US were definitely cooking the books at the beginning at least not testing etc. Those countries make up the bulk of the total numbers.
Sure how can you build models on top of that mess. Garbage in, garbage out
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There’s hardly a drug in the World doesn’t cure it at this stage. Vicks vaporub will be doing a clinical trial before this is over.
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" Hot water and towels Betsy and keep em comin"
I guess there will be lots of drugs that have some effect. The more trials the better, if they strike on something that substantially reduces the death rate, I’d say we could start to see our way back to opening up the country.
On top of which, the models are clearly very very sensitive to slight changes in variables - not surprising when infection can be exponential.
There seems to be a lot of fitting models to tell what happened rather than any real sense of models predicting the likely track well
Models are trying to predict the future based on a load of assumptions about human behaviour and hopelessly incomplete data and it’s impossible to do that.
Nobody should look at models as anything other than a very loose guide to what could happen.
What does seem to be true is that deaths shot up quickly but are not coming down nearly as quickly. This is a massive problem.
There’s a massive delusion too about how many people have had this, yes it’s clearly a lot more thna the published case figures but at bthe same time there’s nothing to indicate that any more than a tiny percentage of the population have had it.
The 26 counties has 4.8 million people so if 48k have had it that’s 1% and cleverer people than me say you need at least 50% and more likely 70-80% to have population immunity.
The other morning Sam McConkey was talking about 10 (ten) years for a vaccine in normal circumstances, though these are not that.
Herd immunity…
they have now added in the Nursing home deaths up to the 3rd
I saw an article last night that a study had reviewed three countries deaths (including Ireland) and consistently over 40% of all deaths were from nursing homes. It was a UK study and it suggested the UK was significantly under reporting nursing home deaths as their figures are much lower.
We need to put a lot more resources into locking down nursing homes. It would, it seems, be a very efficient use of limited resources
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The latest weekly care home death toll published by the ONS on Tuesday showed that only 237 people died in care homes in England and Wales in the two weeks to 3 April, with all but 20 cases in the last seven days of that period.
HC-One and MHA together operate 3% of England’s care homes but their combined death toll is already higher than the ONS figures, which either suggests undercounting due to the ONS’s method of relying on what is recorded on death certificates, or there has been a recent sharp rise in care deaths.
Fuck 
If there’s 521 deaths in groups covering just 3% of nursing homes, then it’s 17,000 just in UK nursing homes so far!!! Even if it’s half that it doubles the UK deaths basically.
Yeah fairly horrendous possibilities.
I don’t keep up to date enough with UK politics to Identify any particular agenda but the likes of the Telegraph and all BBC & ITV outlets are all reporting similar.
Lads starting to buy new handles for their brooms across the irish sea. It’s all going to kick off.
How’s the quinine treatment working out?
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