He’ll hardly go knocking on doors. Too dangerous? At least without a bullet proof vest and a few heavies.
I wouldn’t be surprised if The Monk picks up a lot of Christy Burke’s old vote. There may be room for one so called “anti-system” TD in Dublin Central.
That gene pool is Daly, Hutch and Steenson. They will all transfer well among each other, and there are other candidates there who could transfer well to that gene pool like Kevin Sharkey and the Aontu guy as well as the second SF candidate and the PBP candidate.
I read yesterday he is going to run a social media only campaign for safety reasons. I think he has a slight outside chance. He is a cult hero in large parts if the inner city. If he manages to mobilise that vote who knows? He is going to eat into SF vote and also Clare Daly’s. That cunt Steenson’s too which is definitely not a bad thing.
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Will he go anti immigrant?
If i had to guess i would say yes.
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Has he thought of sending out people dressed as actual monks to canvass for him?
Who is the last TD to be murdered? Kevin O’Higgins is it?
The death rate of TDs has plummetted in latter years. You used to get an average of two or three TDs dying every year. Only five have died since the year 2000 and none for over a decade now which is the first time this has ever happened.
I’d say he will struggle to get canvassers full stop. You would be safer wearing a garda uniform in some of them places.
https://twitter.com/JoeEDwyer/status/1855944400234275036?t=k5-4pGMAWRAlF-oacRjxXA&s=19
So must the lad who hangs up the signs.
Would it not be solidly Hutch territory?
It would but there was lots of Hutches and associates shot around there. I know the kinahans are under pressure but its some canvassing would put some target on your back.
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I would say Hourigan will lose her seat. She got a lot of Mary Lou transfers last time. Mary Lou will be fine even though her posters are being defaced and torched. She has SF apparatus behind her who will bring out the vote but it may take a few counts. Pascal Donohue will be fine you would think. Gannon might also struggle but its anyones guess as to who might pick up the other 2 seats. Immigration seems to number 1 issue around East Wall.
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Been a lot of Hutch people murdered on Hutch territory.
Camera phones aren’t going to save you from lads in black leather on a stolen motorbike on an East Wall side street on a November evening.
And you can’t have a candidate accompanied by lads with handguns. Bridie answering her door on Clonliffe Avenue would get a heart attack.
The Monk is up to something, why is he drawing all this attention to himself
I’d imagine he feels screwed over by someone or something within SF and is out to destroy Mary Lou.
I would think he has little interest in sitting inside in Dáil Éireann daily listening to the windbags in there.
I even saw Burger head Kneel Richmond running around yesterday in one of those FG videos. I’d say they were all groaning when they saw the email coming in from Siyo and HQ about displaying BIG ENERGY in their canvass videos.
Regardless of any slip in the vote for SF, the fact is that she has 3 challengers in her sweet spot that she didn’t last time. Hutch, Daly, Boylan.
That’s before you get to the slip in their vote with Steenson and the far right.
There was some fairly mad internal polling on SF in Dublin showing them down to 11% apparently. Who are SF voters this time around? Have they subbed out the “working class” base for a % of the “young” constituency still happy to vote for them? It could cause them all sorts of issues if so.
You’d have to think she is more than safe, but still, a bit more hairy than people would have thought this time last year.
My constituency is Dublin Rathdown. 3 seater the last time (2FG 1GR) but increasing to a four seater this time.
Catherine Martin topped the poll last time. I’d say she’s safe enough despite the shine coming off the Greens.
Neale Richmond will def get in too. Josepha Madigan retirement copper fastens his seat in one of the bluest constituencies in the country. Good chance to top the poll too
I reckon Shay Brennan finally gets to take his father’s seat. On the ground for years and just missed out the last time
For the last seat it’ll be between SF, a second FG, Alan Shatter with an outside chance for SD candidate Sinead Gibney who ran in the euris which might help with profile. At a guess I say that Shatter robs FG chance of a second seat and with a SD tailwind Gibney sneaks through on some of the votes leaking from Martin and transfers from Labour etc. Very early to be betting on it though and it’ll be very very marginal for whoever grabs it.
1 FG | 1 GR | 1 FF | 1 SD ( FG loss/ FF & SD gain)
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More posts like this please where posters go through their own constituencies in depth. I’ll have a go later on.
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I’d say he will get back in along with the useless Housing Minister and the FG TD with the dodgy personal injury claim.
Duncan seems to be alright in fairness to him.
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think Brennan is good on Active Travel guys