there is a glorious story about him & the scouts (Farrell)
ive never heard anyone praise him yet he always gets in
the SD candidate is very good & topped the poll in the locals, she wouldnt have recognition in Swords though
Yeah she’s a councillor for Howth-Malahide.
I’d say it will be one FF, one FG and one other. So, a bit of a non-event.
Would Shatter have a genuine chance? I seem to remember he struggled when he was inside the fg tent?
Louth.
Three of the five sitting TDs not running (1 SF, 1 FG, 1 IND gone. Left with 1SF, 1 LAB).
SF would almost certainly get two here. Ruairí Ó’Murchú, who won the Gerry Adams seat when he retired, will get in. I’m presuming that Joanna Byrne will take the SF Drogheda area seat. They’ve a third candidate out in the Cooleys, Antóin Watters, but the population is sparse enough there in comparison to Dundalk or Drogheda.
Fergus O’Dowd is the FG who is gone. TwixMan (John McGahon) and Paula Butterly are the North and South of the county reps here. I think Twixxer gets in.
There is no FF seat in the county and I think they’ll rectify that. They’ve Alison Comyn in the South and Erin McGreehan out the Cooleys (she may also suffer from a lack of a big voter base, but she has no competition from a Dundalk FFer). I can’t call that one. All I know is FF will get one.
Ged Nash, Labour, will probably just about hold his seat.
You can kind of split the constituency into two parts -Drogheda area has three current TDs; Dundalk two. Nash could be under pressure from Michael O’Dowd (Aontu and brother of outgoing FG Fergus O Dowd) and Kevin Callan (Ind) will also be in a scrap for a seat. Both are from Drogheda direction so could take votes from Nash’s base, although they would be both ideologically different. Both are ex FG so I see them doing more damage to Butterly than anyone. They also pick up some of the quite conservative leaning Payter Fitzpatrick vote.
There are various other sorts that won’t get elected, and various headbangers/cunts like Hermann Kelly.
2 SF | 1 FF | 1 FG | 1 LAB
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shatter doesnt have a chance, given his rabid support for whats happening in gaza
Hopefully that’s the case.
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A considerable portion of SF’s vote in 2020 - not the majority but significant - particularly in urban areas, was a sort college educated, angry yet optimistic but naive woke class, people like I was 20 years ago.
If that vote has deserted them this time, where do they go?
Soc Dems?
Do some of them just not vote?
I have a feeling in my waters that this election is not capturing the imagination and turnout will be down.
But I can also see how Holly Cairns as a party leader could go down very well with the sort of people who take a big interest in US politics and are extremely upset about Trump winning, and like eating olives.
Holly is very “presentable” - she’s almost a caricature of the ideal middle class suburban dinner party guest for people in their early 30s - and thus it’s possible that the Soc Dems could have a minor version of the Spring Tide of 1992 or the Gilmore Gale of 2011 or in reality something similar to the Green Gallop of 2020.
Sure. Limerick County. Absolutely no change. You’re welcome
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Chair of the Justice Committee:joy:
‘So Minister, this plan of yours for more guards on the beat…’
Limerick County may well be the most predictable constituency in the whole election.
As @Batigol has said - no change. Collins (FF), O’Donovan (FG) & O’Donoghue (IND)
A lot of their growth was down to that, alongside those people’s parents sick of them being at home. I suspect a portion of that is gone out of home ownership. Those people might not necessarily be voting for others, just not motivated to vote now.
A chunk of it still there though.
But the question is what makes up their current support.
They went from 14% to 25% from 2016. Then they hit the mid 30s between the election cycle polling wise, suggesting they were still winning votes. Ultimately though they went down to 12% in real terms in the locals.
Their FPV% and critically where that was is critical. If you take Dublin Central, Mary Lou got 25% in 2016 vs. the SF share of 14%. That was with a solid vote from inner city communities though and without the competition there is now. I could see SF getting 17/18% and her vote still being below that 25%.
At least Christy Burke isn’t running.
Also with regards to the Soc Dems and Labour, both have as big an issue with retirements as Fine Gael do.
Will do Limerick City(point of origin) as current constituency has been covered. 3 of the 4 to remain with a battle, royal rumble style, between Soc Dems, Labour and Independent (Daly) for the last seat. Will come down to a very late count and a handful of votes I think. Will WoD top the poll after losing his Ballygunner style grip on the title last time out?
FF will also be in with a decent shout for the last seat.
I’d say you’re underselling the FG vote here.
Oh absolutely but will WoD hoard votes? She’ll obviously do well on her own but would need transfers from him you’d imagine.
I was looking at this last night. B9th shatter and gibney are 10/1 which is well worth a poke. Youd imagine shatter would struggle because of gaza but hes always been very open about his pro israel stance. He is also campaigning strongly on reducing inheritance tax, which should be a big sell in a constituency full of rich old people.
Gibney is a women, and a soc dem, which should make her very transfer friendly. Ill be having abit of her 10s. Just couldnt being myself to back shatter…
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