Probably vote Aontu myself
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confirmed
id guess the question would be which is more achievable, is changing the spend on public transport to roads from the current 2:1 to 5:1 achievable or is it more aspirational mate
lets hope it is
because you hate women?
Does anyone feel sorry for Si yet?
I’m trying to think what his handlers will do to try salvage things.
They had Enda Kenny out batting for him yesterday.
How do you convince people post Kanturk that he really does care about people?
His brother probably can’t give an interview vouching for him because of his own role.
A big interview with his wife & family maybe to show the wholesome side of Si again.
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I don’t, no
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I expect Si to stare directly down the camera at the debate this week and address his people
“I’m not super human, I’m just like you…,honour…together…I slipped up…I will fight for you”
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The involvement of Russian agents to destabilise Ireland has to be a factor in the FG decline.
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Pascal doesnt give a fuck there
I’m beginning to think the Blueshirts don’t want another term in government; their heart isn’t in it.
Looking at the recent elections here and trying to get a sense where votes will move to.
2020 GE vs 2024 LE
Turnout was down so that obviously impacts votes. Accounting for that eg
FF 63k down vs GE but should have been down 76k (turnout effect) so they were up 13k (voter preference effect)
Using that across the parties the voter preference effect was
FG +37k
FF +13k
SF -233k
LAB +17k
SD +19k
GR -65k
IND/Other +222k
My main read from that is that a huge chunk of SF voters, largely anti-gov in sentiment, changed to IND/Other.
To a lesser extent Green voters from 2020 prob switched mostly to Lab, SD and maybe FG/FF
As @Julio_Geordio has pointed out, it’s hard to see how a drop in FG support benefits SF and FF vote seems to be holding up. Therefore the big question/challenge for SF is to get some of that Ind/Other vote back to them in any sort of the numbers they got in 2020.
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Harris spoofing like fuck on the Claire Byrne show,
‘My behaviour fell well below my own standards never mind everyone else’
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surely some of SF has gone to Greens, Lab & SD, their anti immigrant troupes must have lost votes
some fuck up by him
if he kept the head down they wouldnt be in the mess
like he isnt likable
Think the immigration thing will be a killer for them. A % who would have been SF voters previously will go for some lunatic alternative.
They’ll be nowhere near 2020. In 2020 they got people elected by accident, like that head banger in Clare. They’ll lose all those seats. Their 20% won’t get the same seats as FF or FGs 20%.
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He’s also struggling with questions about the Twix candidate, sounds like he’d prefer people to vote for the other FG candidate.
His “energy” is giving off maniacal vibes
Perhaps. I was looking for exit poll info from the locals on how peoples vote changed but couldn’t find it.
The big thing though is a huge chunk of SF vote went away (unlike for FF and FG) - so can they get it back?
I think a lot of the FF and FG vote are longtime party voters who consistently turn out at elections. FG vote has trended down over the last 10 years but nothing like the swings seen in SF who seem to have a much more transient voting base.
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He has a terrible habit of trying to come across as hugely moralistic yet in the same breath showing that he’s not,
Speaking about the candidate in Louth:
‘I abhor violence with every breath of my being but……’
At one stage he was reminding listeners that there is another FG candidate in Louth.
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