Post Ewan McKenna

Utter rubbish. The height of inanity. But I understand the warping effect of psychological pain. You have a staggering amount invested in nonsense. At least, three years on, we have finally reached a reductio ad absurdum.

I asked you a plain question. To repeat: what factor(s) caused a fall in Covid infection rates in Ireland between December 2020 and March 2021? Was lockdown, with regard to said fall, a complete “waste of time”?

There is nothing wrong with saying that you cannot, within your psychological lights, answer the question.

Grasping at Straws

There are certain snippets around, I grant.

Thats just what viruses do. They infect the vulnerable within a catchment area and then infection rates drop as immunity rises and numbers of available hosts fall

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Banality piled on inanity.

Okay. You are unwilling to answer the question. We will have to leave it there. Somehow you feel that you discovered a brave new magical world where the laws of cause and effect no longer apply.

Quite boggling – but understandable nevertheless, in psychological terms.

I have nothing invested in anything. I just have a grá for coherence and logic.

@glenshane @Malarkey only one of ye can be right. Infection rates either dropped cos of masks/lockdowns or more people getting infected. Can either of ye provide stats for your thesis please

Bullshit. You are another black and white merchant, grasping after absolutes that do not exist except in the mind of ideologically blinkered individuals. I find it risible that your ratiocination levels are so low that you cannot think outside of a framework where someone is either 100% right or 100% wrong.

My concern was – and is – straightforward. I went dealing with a claim – made here repeatedly throughout 2020-21 and again this weekend – around the effect(iveness) of lockdown as a pandemic option. The claim was that lockdown is entirely and completely “a waste of time”. Note the italicization. The corollary claim, here, is that lockdown cannot cause in any circumstances a significant fall in infection rates. Any such claim patently flies in the face of established fact (as per my point about December 2020 to March 2021 in Ireland) – and therefore is irrational in the extreme.

I have never claimed – nor could I rationally claim – lockdown is a perfect solution to a pandemic. I am not interested in supposed ‘perfect’ solutions. I think reality is quite enough as a challenge. I quite often speak to someone who eschewed lockdown and taking a vaccine. I think he had quite good rationales in these regards and I admire the carefulness with which he and his family thought through the difficulties on both sides. The problem is that his solutions, however admirable, could not be scaled up for society at large.

The nub remains this issue: should Covid have been left to make its way through society in early to mid 2020, whatever the various mutterings about ‘shielding the vulnerable’, mutterings mostly made in bad faith by ideologues, personality alibi merchants, the professionally obnoxious, devotees of the GBD, loonsters, former members of the gaming community, and so forth? Clearly not, for all sorts of reasons – not least that the great majority of the Irish public would not have tolerated non lockdown. Chaos, high up and low down, would have been the main effect of non lockdown in 2020. You would not need Adam Smith’s intellect to realize commercial society cannot function in the midst of chaos.

A disproportionate number of TFK posters, if voting patterns in Irish politics stand as the control, profess fervent belief in right wing shite. Okay, some of this stuff is just lads without a personality trying to achieve a smidgin of personality, a gom pretending to be a gom so as not to be, in his own little head, a gom – the equivalent of a dreadful Sunday morning soccer player deciding to wear pink boots.

They say empathy and imagination go together. Perhaps this splice, and its absence in the personality alibi merchants, explains the kango factor. Gross stupidity is not quite enough of an explanation for irrationality and childishness of that reach.

Which or whether, the reality is that the kango cohort mostly saw Covid as another card in the standard right wing deck of issues (‘Low card bad, high card good!’). Conservatives and Conservatism represent a different case. But a majority of right wing people are stupid and childish. Why? Because they believe in the availability of simple answers to complex problems. As such, they are wonderfully manipulatable by any common or garden demagogue. These right wingers’ sense of identity is long invested in seeing themselves as hardheaded and anti liberal – hardheaded because anti liberal. They could not think clearly about Covid because they cannot think clearly about any issue that involves one of more of the following topics: the benefits of state intervention in some cases; the advantages public sector workers enjoy in discrete circumstances; the inability of impatience to solve certain problems; the fact that people do not forget being treated as a second class citizen simply because a crisis passed; the right of citizens not to have other citizens take on risk on their supposed behalf; an inability to think in dialectical terms, in terms of what might have happened rather than merely in terms of what did happen.

There we are. The fact that so many people still wish to worship in the Church of the Holy Kango makes my case far better, in the end, than I ever could.

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Florida and Texas didn’t lock down. Two big places with some HUGE cities in them (a combined 50 million in population). Obviously the lack of a lockdown meant they both had by far the highest numbers of covid. Cos lockdowns work, you see.

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I won covid on tfk, what interest would i have in a rematch? Provide stats …again? Twould be like Real Madrid turning up in kilkenny demanding a match with evergreen fc because of some disparaging (and quite lengthy) conments by @Malarkey in a pub.
Anyhow…below is a link that wil usefully illustrate the silliness of saying the rains came because we did a rain dance. Of course none of us can prove otherwise, that doesn’t mean we have to join the superstition.
Here’s the link, it’ll only take a minute

In the words of Larry McCarthy “Now now, now now”

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@Malarkey the answer to your question is the epidemic curve and it’s been well established and studied in all pandemics. If your thesis is correct and cases wpuld just rise exponentially without lockdowms, Ireland would have had several hundred million people infected by March 2021. Even you with your non existant grasp of mathematics and science must accept this as impossible.

What surprised epidemiologists was how quickly curves fell, in all regions and countries, regardless of intervention measures. This was due to how insanely contagious Covid is, every variant that emerged swept through populations like measles, and regardless of prior infection or vaccination status people continued and continue to get reinfected. The number of people infected in each wave was massively underestimated, as for the young and healthy it was no worse than the common cold, and in many cases no symptoms at all.

As an airborne virus there was no way to stop tranmission unless you impose draconian lockdown measures like China, but how tenable is that? Even China had to relent and let everyone get infected, luckiily for them a less virulent variant was circulating.

Having said all that the Irish government encouraging peoiple to go out and socialize in December 2020 was the utmost stupidity, but it is the Irish government we are talking about, a bunch of morons from top to bottom. Encouraging and facilitating people to act responsibly was valid and warranted to flatten curves, as was done in Sweden.

The measures that could have helped were UV lighting and air circulation/filtration in places where people congregated, such as supermarkets, schools, places of worship, etc. Certainly better than maintaining 6 ft distances (for a virus that was airborne :rofl:), 5km walking limits, and 9 Euro meals.

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Give over with the passive aggressive bullshit about a pub and rain dances. You ‘won’ Covid on here, since you raise the matter in those terms, in the manner Eddie The Eagle was one of the UK’s great skiers and went to the Olympics. Your relationship with statistics is much the same as Michael Edwards’ relationship with snow – namely, an occasion of self humiliation.

The person with an utterly risible take on causality is not me. You could not answer, as I predicted, even a basic question about the relationship between lockdown and infection rates in a specific Irish period.

But I did at least establish a credo about your take on Covid in general terms: They [infection rates] rose and fell everywhere following the same pattern, regardless of masks and lockdowns

Regardless… The only good thing about the sheer ridiculousness and slope crash nature of that statement is that only metaphorical bones were broken.

Fire up your score on the oul quizuiz there for us

Several hundred million people… Where do they all live? Crumlin? People like you were – and presumably are – in the grip of a severe psychic disturbance around the Covid issue.

I do not have a thesis. I have commonsense to hand and an open mind. I suppose I also have the advantage of not being crazed by right wing bullshit. Which or whether, I had a sufficient grasp of “mathematics and science” not to opine ‘We are done with Covid’ in early summer of 2020. You do not possess expertise in water divination if the spring only lasts – oh, only lasts five minutes.

What you actually mean by "“stop transmission”? An absolutist sense of all or nothing. There never was a way to stop transmission in that inane sense of termination. There were only various and ever imperfect ways to mitigate transmission. I live in the real world, not in a loolah ideology land of inverted Teletubbies.

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No, I will not – because I learned the hard way that reading anything on Covid you suggest is a completely futile exercise. Your purchase on reality is your own affair and your own affair only. To you, Covid is just another chapter in some Erich von Däniken tale of the galactically unexpected. I gave up reading him when I was 12 and never looked back.

Shur you could have taken the quiz, arrived at your senses and fired off a quick note of gratitude in a tenth of the time it took to pen any one of your last five defiant flailing windmills

:smiley::smiley:

You’re basically saying anyone with any working or personal connections to the Nursing Home & Medical sectors needed to Lockdown whilst everyone else got on with things?

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Nope, no idea where you got that. Nursing homes and hospitals needed to be made infection free zones, common in most of the developed world. Dedicated rooms for Covid patients, proper PPE, air filtration, testing every person entering, etc. I’m sure you’ve been in enough Irish hospitals to know how far they are from that goal, the HSE are an absolute disgrace in terms of how they treat staff and patients.

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Those measures couldn’t have been implemented at the height of the pandemic chief.

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