I could live with that so long as they keep stocking pilsner urquell in fine wines
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It was nessecary but now we need to careful the cure isn’t worse than the illness.
Supply chains will begin to collapse before long
they’ll start opening places up in the next month, when it looks like it’s under control. It will be done slowly and considerately, with a big eye on the healthcare status.
What’s been done up to now has put us in a place to come out of it with a modicum of control.
Sweden have kept large parts of their economy going.
They will still have a huge contraction, but not to the same degree in the short term.
Health capacity is a huge issue and warranted the caution we had, but in an ideal world you want to be more like the Asian countries who had experience and tackled this. Sustained 2 months shuttering of sectors will mean many businesses will never come back and many jobs may not either. We will likely innovate in the medium term but are facing a U Shaped recovery rather than a V Shaped one now.
We’ll see a gradual reopening of things over next month or two. The lockdown was only ever designed to be temporary to buy time and allow resources and infrastructure be put in place.
But lads expecting crowds in pubs and heading to Croke Park in July will get a rude awakening.
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how do you think any of what you just outlined would be any different had we stayed open?
Sweden are going to have to introduce measures fairly soon, they are at a fairly high death per million now, it won’t be long until the people start looking for lockdown. They’ll be in it for longer then
Everyone within the Health service I’ve spoken to is of the opinion that the shit hasn’t actually hit the fan yet.
All this talk of us being past peak seems to be nonsense from what I’ve heard.
I’ve spoken to a lady in CUH who was very optimistic. Now Cork and Dublin are Worlds apart in terms of numbers so she may have a different view of reality than someone in a similar position in the East.
Nobody fucking knows Har and that’s what’s scaring the shite out of the high ups
They are only going on the stats. The rate of hospitalisation and ICU admissions are stable/falling.
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Or if you look at it another way, it just hasn’t been as bad as expected for whatever reason. Unlikely to get any worse over the next three weeks surely?
Hopefully but I’d be pessimistic going on what I’ve heard.
because of the measures.
I think they have a distrust of the population, going absolutely buck ape if they relax the measures too quickly or are overly optimistic. As we have a low enough ICU capacity and they are ramping up on testing and tracing then we will need to err on the side of caution until tracing and testing are adequate (time not numbers)
I don’t think they have to introduce measures, they have actually already introduced measures and can introduce more. Some of the measures they have introduced they have admitted were solely for political purposes and not on public health grounds.
Their case rate is falling all the time.
Their deaths are “high” relatively speaking, but 1,200 is not 200,000 which would be some of the worse estimates for them. Their first case was on January 31st, is it really going to get much worse for them? Where’s the evidence that they have to lockdown harder and for longer? Asian countries don’t have to, they are certainly going for some more leaders in response to travellers bringing it in, but they are relatively confident on their measures.
FYI I don’t disagree with us locking down as we had a great big uncertainty, but I would argue on the “economy is fucked” either way. There are differences. We had hoped for a V shaped recovery, that seems unlikely low and it will he a U Shaped one. That means a more sustained period of unemployment and periods of people paying more taxes and spending being constrained.’
The thing is that the measures we introduced have been a roaring success in terms of our control of the situation and allowing the health service to set itself up, but is now being used as a whip to beat them with, a catch 22 of sorts
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What did I tell you about Easter?
I don’t disagree on the measures working on capacity. I never said otherwise, I was just saying why some people say we’re past the peak.
On Sweden, they’ve seen growth 3 days in a row again after a period of decline, which follows their pattern - they’ve gone up by > 150 in 2 days. They’ve had peaks and troughs, which would suggest it very much isn’t under control. Cases and deaths grow exponentially and are time delineated, they have no control over it.
I thought his comment back at the outset to the effect of it being a harmless touch of the flu was said with tongue firmly in cheek and while quoting an article outlining how serious it was?
In deaths or cases?
Their case percentage growth rate is falling.
They’ve just had their highest daily death total.