Sinn Fein definitely have a good few loose cannons in the parliamentary party. There’s a sort of Matt Le Tissier vibe off some of them. Martin Browne in Tipperary, Reada Cronin in Kildare, Violet Anne Wynne and Carol Nolan before they left. Then again, Fine Gael have their share of Lozza Foxes in their ranks.
I think their strategy is savvy, and most of the people putting it into practice it are savvy, especially their online meme outlets like Dr. Harold and Irish Simpsons Fans Page or whatever it’s called, yer man Tadhg Hickey, that Estebantz chap etc., and probably other people I haven’t even heard of.
They have a weird sort of cultural crossover type thing going on, a bit like New Labour did around 1995, when Britpop became a sort of cultural vehicle for Blairism, though the people endorsing them would be less well known because of the internet-driven fragmentation of culture. The likes of Damien Dempsey, the Rubberbandits, Emmett Kirwan, I think would be seen as broadly pro-SF. There’s a rap group called Kneecap who are definitely pro-SF, one of them made a memorable quote on Channel 4 News a year or two back: “I have much more in common with someone of my age living in the Shankill than with Sebastian Cockworth in Blackrock”. The O’Broin tweet was an example of them making a conscious play towards people of an artistic bent, sort of “outsider art”, I think @binkybarnes mentioned Banksy. That’s it.
Sinn Fein’s brand appeal to the young is “edginess”. That’s the same brand appeal Trump went with, though in a different way. Sinn Fein’s edginess is more Frankie Boyle, Trump’s edginess was more the Daily Stormer. SF mix that “edgy” brand with “housing”, For older people, the brand is nationalism, pensions, public services, and a sort “everybody else is corrupt, we are pure” Viktor Orban style offering.
I think Cosgrave is very good at generating publicity for himself - that’s what he is - a publicist - a glorified party planner - but he’s a loose cannon liable to say incredibly stupid stuff. Then again, as long as he’s still sort of operating in the shadows, that probably doesn’t matter that much.
I think what Sinn Fein are really gearing up for is what sort of strategy they’ll employ if they get into power. It’ll be a Viktor Orban strategy. Blame everybody else and be loud as hell about it. Use all the levers of power available to them to crank up pressure on institutions, public or private, they see as being in opposition to them. Use frivolous SLAPPS lawsuits, I think we’re already seeing that with the Mary Lou McDonald defamation case against RTE. Mick Wallace and Clare Daly also do this.
But SF may not necessarily get into power next time. Leo Varadkar is a populist at heart, and I don’t mean that in a complimentary sense. Fine Gael have now made a conscious decision to go for the anti-trans strategy. This is a “look over there” strategy that the right-wing internationally believe they can make serious capital from and in the process divide their opposition. FG believe that SF are weak here and they aren’t necessarily wrong in that belief. You’ll see this continue to be pushed front and centre by desperate right wing parties. The Tories will go big on it. It’s also a highly dangerous strategy which threatens to unleash extreme malign forces on society, this is a certainty when you target a small marginalised group within society as the problem. It never, ever, ever leads anywhere good.
The next election will be a battle between two groups of populists. You can sort of see the road to how liberal democracies get eroded beginning to lay out in front of us.