Yeah but if the far right get some foothold in some more urban constituencies then it might impact at a general.
As it happens, if you look at the likes of Dublin South East last time, there wasn’t a candidate from the far right.
If they can get themselves organised and run strategically, they can definitely do some damage.
The saving grace for SF is that the far right are a poorly organised rabble. The Irish Freedom Party appear to look down at the National Party for being Nazis. The National Party itself has their own drama.
It’s worth looking at some of the comments under Mary Lou’s recent Twitter posts or the quote tweets - quite a lot of negative or critical comments which I suspect is a bit of a change. The notion of SF really going whichever way the wind blows on issues and flip-flopping around is beginning to stick I think. On top of that as has been pointed out you’ve the issue of some of their voter base pushing back on their (to date largely admirable) immigration position.
Poll at the weekend had them down 3 points largely driven by a drop-off in support from younger voters. First time back into the twenties in poll numbers in a while I think. They’re still in a very strong position but the tide might be turning a little.
These new right leaning parties have taken it upon themselves to attack SF at every opportunity. Particularly in social media. Essentially SF are being out- botted online.
I expect that during the next election campaign prominent Sinn Fein candidates, especially Mary Lou McDonald herself, will be the target of vicious abuse on the street from the far right. Mary Lou will play this up hugely (not that she would be wrong to do so). This will create a sympathy vote.
But the Irish Freedom Party are a joke. They’re a Nigel Farage astro-turf operation. The National Party are an even bigger joke.
Renua are a busted flush and a joke.
Aontu could gain some traction but don’t seem organised enough.
Independent candidates seem the only hope for them. Somebody like that Philip Dwyer cunt could get a half-decent vote if he decided to stand as he has built up a bit of a profile.
Profile, celebrity in other words, is everything for far right candidates. That’s where Conor McGregor comes in. Conor McGregor is highly unlikely to stand for the Dail - he would never bother himself with something so unglamourous as the real work of a TD - but he might well be attracted to the campaign trail and the immense attention he would gather from that, pounding the streets with adoring followers in tow, a media circus. He could endorse far right candidates without standing himself, touch these candidates with his celebrity, and gain a significant amount of votes for these candidates that way.
I think they are still pretty fractured and spread out electorally. I know a few hundered votes might get you elected in some locals but still, i doubt theyd have enough support anywhere in particular to get more than 2/3 councillors elected tops.
Any party separating from the herd on his issue face a serious backlash one way or another. PBP aren’t a serious party so can shout as much as they want. Mary needs another immigrant to kill someone or for Leo to reiterate his stance of slowing down intake.
Eddie Hobbs had a very brief period as a populist hero in 2005 when he had the show Rip Off Republic in which he played a pound shop preacher promoting rage against supermarkets and the GUBMINT (specifically the “Groceries Order”).
He mistakenly thought people would remember that in 2016 and embrace him again as a populist hero. But the vast majority of people just stuck with the view of him as a whiney gobshite they’d had since 2005, and mentally dismissed him and thought no more of it.
A campaign trail is showbusiness, especially if you have a showbusiness personality. I really think McGregor would fancy it. You could imagine him pounding the streets of Crumlin, and East Wall, or Drogheda, or Cork, or Galway, with threatening looking followers and paparazzi. Tucker Carlson might pound the streets of Dublin with him. Far right INTERNET personalities would flock to Ireland to watch this political circus in action. A political equivalent of Don King Promotions. You can imagine him promoting unknown far right gobshites in the same way he promotes his fights, or Katie Taylor, or his whiskey or his stout, or the onion rings at the Black Forge Inn.
“My stable of candidates. My people. I am the true representation of the working class, of the people (maniacal laugh).”
