Big Martin Browne should be allocated 2 seats
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Back of a fag packet calculation is 60.
But because of the increase of seats from 160 to 174, 60 is the new 55.
They will struggle to win one in DĂșn Laoghaire unless they can attract in the anti immigrant vote.
Boyd Barrett still has such a strong personal vote that I canât see him losing to them even if he does shed some working class votes because of immigration.
If they damage him, it is more likely to benefit FF or FG. Both will be targeting a second seat and should be transfer friendly between the them this time.
Next local elections will tell a lot. Look out for the likes of Dublin South East Inner City.
Local election results in ireland often differ greatly from general elections.
Yeah but if the far right get some foothold in some more urban constituencies then it might impact at a general.
As it happens, if you look at the likes of Dublin South East last time, there wasnât a candidate from the far right.
If they can get themselves organised and run strategically, they can definitely do some damage.
The saving grace for SF is that the far right are a poorly organised rabble. The Irish Freedom Party appear to look down at the National Party for being Nazis. The National Party itself has their own drama.
jaysus, these guys look down on people for being Nazis?
https://twitter.com/hermannkelly/status/1729493776916189462
Itâs worth looking at some of the comments under Mary Louâs recent Twitter posts or the quote tweets - quite a lot of negative or critical comments which I suspect is a bit of a change. The notion of SF really going whichever way the wind blows on issues and flip-flopping around is beginning to stick I think. On top of that as has been pointed out youâve the issue of some of their voter base pushing back on their (to date largely admirable) immigration position.
Poll at the weekend had them down 3 points largely driven by a drop-off in support from younger voters. First time back into the twenties in poll numbers in a while I think. Theyâre still in a very strong position but the tide might be turning a little.
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These new right leaning parties have taken it upon themselves to attack SF at every opportunity. Particularly in social media. Essentially SF are being out- botted online.
I expect that during the next election campaign prominent Sinn Fein candidates, especially Mary Lou McDonald herself, will be the target of vicious abuse on the street from the far right. Mary Lou will play this up hugely (not that she would be wrong to do so). This will create a sympathy vote.
But the Irish Freedom Party are a joke. Theyâre a Nigel Farage astro-turf operation. The National Party are an even bigger joke.
Renua are a busted flush and a joke.
Aontu could gain some traction but donât seem organised enough.
Independent candidates seem the only hope for them. Somebody like that Philip Dwyer cunt could get a half-decent vote if he decided to stand as he has built up a bit of a profile.
Profile, celebrity in other words, is everything for far right candidates. Thatâs where Conor McGregor comes in. Conor McGregor is highly unlikely to stand for the Dail - he would never bother himself with something so unglamourous as the real work of a TD - but he might well be attracted to the campaign trail and the immense attention he would gather from that, pounding the streets with adoring followers in tow, a media circus. He could endorse far right candidates without standing himself, touch these candidates with his celebrity, and gain a significant amount of votes for these candidates that way.
she would want to get some of their councilors to stop the anti immigrant populism before she can play that
this dude is a one man Gript
Aidan Mullins (@AidanMullins7) / X (twitter.com)
Heâs too badly dressed to be taken seriously.
Ffs sake. Thatâs an outrageously awful coat. The white collar and trim is abhorrent.
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I think SF moving more to the right on migration would make sense for them.
Theyâre in a tricky spot if the far right mobilises in urban areas.
They can take votes off PbP who wonât pivot on this.
In more rural constituencies where Indos have already exploited migrant fear they can take votes from them.
What they lose is that the rest of the left turns on them but itâs a calculated gamble.
I think they are still pretty fractured and spread out electorally. I know a few hundered votes might get you elected in some locals but still, i doubt theyd have enough support anywhere in particular to get more than 2/3 councillors elected tops.
Theyâre fractured yes but attitudes arenât. Thereâs high single figures out there for an organised grouping that goes that way.
Aah⊠like a working class Eddie Hobbs/renua deal.
Leo has already come out and said we need to slow down the intake⊠Gives Mary Lou plenty of cover.
Yeah all they need to do really is dovetail it into the housing issue blah blah blah.
Theyâd already have gone that way if it wasnât for the last election where all things to all men populism worked.