The idea that we have a market solution in Ireland, pre the crash or since, is pure nonsense.
It is one of the most regulated markets out there for a variety of reasons.
Half of Europe lives in what we consider ghettos. Take a look at any Italian city. The centres of Bologna, Milan and Genoa contain working class housing that is similar to the worst parts of West Belfast or Dublin. Most of the deprived areas of Irish cities actually have better housing than youāll find in German, Italian or Belgian cities.
A lot of it is to do with expectation.
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The market solution was never thought through . It evolved in a era of superabundance of credit . It happened by chance and was seen as a virtue out of necessity .
That was the final party for big long term loans .
Nail on the head kid .
A council house in say Kilrea , magherafelt or crossmaglren are far better structure that Ā£600 k gaffs in islington .
That isnāt the market.
It has been proven that there was no true oversupply of homes in Ireland for the pace of population growth.
We built houses in the wrong places and some people were allowed to borrow too much. The market was never allowed to correct itself on the latter, on the former you can blame planners and politicians i.e. regulations.
The school I used to work in had this ālab technicianā, fancy term for washing test tubes and setting up experiments. 16k a year. He spoke four languages, could read in several, wrote off the wall philosophical articles that had been published by newspapers - including the guardian. I knew him well enough to ask him what he was doing earning a third of what the halfwits in the teaching staff were earning. He said he had spent years living in London and heād have to be a millionaire to own a three bedroom house with a bit of ground, be able to fish any time he wanted and have a car etc.
Itās simple I suppose
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It was the market . Houses were built where private capital thought they were viable . Are you suggesting that developers should have been āincentivized ā or got state subsidies to build social houses in Dublin ??
That is not the market.
We are property laws.
We have planning laws including zoning.
Incentives to build ancillary supports.
That is distorting the market.
Of course people will go and build in the wrong places and the market should give them a kicking, but the idea it was close to that in Ireland is hilarious.
That local authorities and government policies were were stupid is beyond any question .
My point was that the market could not be expected to solve social housing need and that the old idea of building large stocks of social housing is no longer a viable solution either .
New ways are needed in a changing world .
Why not?
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The building of huge sprawling local authority estates in the 70s and 80 s was an utter disaster . Are you suggesting another South hill ???
Why do we have to build huge sprawling estates like moytoss or south hill? You sound like the only option for government to build houses is to build ghettos. Obviously itās not.
I never said it was ( it patently is not ) . I donāt think you are listening to my arguement . Neither is Tim either .
You said building large stocks of housing isnāt a viable solution. Why not? They donāt have to all be in the one place or be sprawling estates.
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Cluid model works quite well as far as I can see
I said sprawling estates are a problem . The sprawling estates were built then because letās be honest they were a cheap option and they minimized NIMBYism .
The LA housing in Lk went from the lanes , to the 40s/50s scheme like the Borough , island etc. to 70s /80s Sothill . They kept moving further .
Your idea is not bad but no so easy to implement .
You cannot say the market solution failed when we didnāt see the market nearly close to being perfect in action.
We have never got close.
The government have done a belatedly good job in easing regulations on apartment builds which should help. That will make it easier to get some pay back on apartment builds than before.
Other measures would be the courts properly enforcing on defaulters.
Looking properly at middle class welfare (ie inheiritance tax) and the Fair Deal scheme which engourages 50 something couples to take out loans on their parents minimal nursing home costs, rather than giving this housing stock over to the market.
Of course building denser will help too.
I also believe that the current central bank rules are fucking over those in the market. 100% mortgages are seen as some great evil but why? You currently have in Ireland a high amount of good salaried jobs out there, but people in those jobs can not afford deposits. This is encouraging more Funds and cash buyers in as the rental market is so buyont. It is circular.
This all comes back to efforts to reinflate the negative equity many people were in and a determination that the low hanging fruit of property developers had to be the sacrificial lamb of the bust.
You also have to ask more broader questions like for example, why it has taken UCD almost 50 years to get beyond a couple of thousand beds on campus for 20k plus students. UCD moved from the city centre all those years ago and fully over a decade ago, but have only got close to linking up the campus half a decade ago.
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We should implement the Clare solution nationally. Mud huts for everyone.
It would solve the whole housing problem if a government had the balls to do it.
Obviously it would have to be measured, but its the only solution to the housing crisis in my opinion.
The HAP payments to private landlords are crippling. It doesnt work expecting private builders to house everyone. Its not feasible unfortunately.
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The last few governments stopped building social housing on a grand scale . They trusted the market to supply rental and the state would then give assistance .
That was grandish in an era of credit superabundance but in 2008 that hit a wall .
We are agree that the only solution is to build houses and apartments . How this will be done to benefit society and how it will be financed on a sustainable basis is the question .