The Official TFK Local and European Elections Thread 2024

Things
441

If the government gets those tally figures, they are romping home in a general.

The difference to 2019 and 2020 is that FF and FG are actually transferring to one another.

442

https://x.com/MichealLehane/status/1799512194075230259?t=4mS03fHT6g9VJsU9_8APVw&s=19

God is in his heaven.

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443

So the far right have strengthened FFG :person_shrugging:t2:

444

SF have really fucked themselves running 2 in Tipp Town & Brownes daughter.

Surprised that cunt Burgess has polled so well, Fogarty very poor. Cross & Hanna should be ok.

Finnan looks in trouble whilst Roger looks safe.

O’Heney & Browne elected as the Independant’s.

We’re looking at?
1 Liam Browne
2 O’Heney
3 Burgess
4 Hanna
5 Kennedy
6 Cross
7 ?

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445

The turnout will be >10% higher in a GE. I’d wager a lot of that surplus is the SF demographic. Wouldn’t go writing them off completely

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446

I wouldn’t write them off but the most likely scenario now is more or less the same number of seats amongst the big three parties.

This notion that they would be a clear winner knew the other two looks very unlikely now.

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447

Lots of SF supporters didn’t vote SF yesterday or gave them a 2/3/4.That won’t be happening in the GE.

448

Ff and fg are the party of the people.

449

Not sure what you mean here? Do you think there’s a load of SF who think it doesnt matter cos it’s locals?

450

Yep they split their own vote and mobilised a lot of reasonable folk.

Similar to tories and farages party.

451

Correct,locals are for pot hole fillers GE is for the big stuff.

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452

Wtf is happening the how mal count?

453

Si Harris has rejuvenated FG

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454

https://twitter.com/buailtin/status/1799499861273854080?s=46

It would send shivers down your spine when you see these fellas hoisted into the air in celebration.

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455

Christ no wonder the country is fucked

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456

SFs core is quite small and the support they have had drifted to indos especially, in contrast FFG have a core of of 20% plus each and they won’t be shifting allegiances, SF are in bother for the GE in my opinion

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457

It’s an Awful look.

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458

There’s no sustained evidence of this.

459

Think they’re expecting first count around 10.

But we sort of know that one already. Then see where Hopkins transfers her surplus (Healy should do well there). Then remove some low counts and they’ll go scattergun. Then SF and AontĂș trio will decide it. SF unlikely to go much to FG you’d think.

So all of those rounds would probably put Healy ahead of Lavin and possibly Guerin. That’s all before Donnellan goes out. But of course if the SF Aontu trio transfer among themselves one of them could go ahead of Donnellan.

That’s my official reading of it.

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460

Time will tell.Harris will be gung-ho now to have the election right after the budget but I think they’ll still get their holes opened in the GE

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