Except thereâs a clear trend in SF support rising and falling in the last 4 year period. There has been a movement to far right parties and individuals. That is reflected in the counts.
Calling it healy in and donnellan out?
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Down to housing now.
Peak SF support was never that impressive.
Mid 30s was FG territory for a long time.
There is no cohesive opposition. There is now a clear FF and FG transfer element that wasnât there before.
This is why Iâve always been bemused on this âautomaticâ SF assumption.
40% used to land FF very close to an overall majority. FF and FG being transfer friendly is massive now.
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Donnellan wont get in I donât think. Itâs two from Healy, Lavin and Guerin.
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Tbf to FFG theyâve played a blinder the last few months putting SF in the same box as FFG when it comes to immigration.SF have scored multiple own goals in the last year.If they had opposed everything FFG have done theyâd be 20 PTS up in the polls.Mary Louâs should be benched.
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Indeed. The % here never really backed change unless SF broke through and got 70 seats. That was always not happening.
Long term it could because the âFFGâ thing might now actually be a thing.
Not really. This is just what was always going to happen.
The same way that FG were landed with a clanger over the Black and Tans, it was inevitable that SF would be tested over migration.
This stuff about âSF stopping the far rightâ was always nonsense.
Actually bailey will go ahead of donnellan if she gets a lot of transfers from the other guy
Be interesting will they run someone in South Tipp next time.
Yeah exactly and AontĂș might go a bit to Bailey too.
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Just let Healy in. Fuck the other two
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Sinn Fein were officially toast when they were promising reruns of referendums which they deemed didnt go far enough. The electorate voted nearly 3:1 against those 2 articles. It showed just how out of touch they were and non credible as an oppostion/political entity. Iâd liken it to the moment where Diarmuid Byrnes dropped short shot landed in the Clare net in Ennis. The ensuing collapse is also uncanny.
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How did Gavin pepper and the other high profile far righties do?
Pepper looks like heâll get in.
I think the high profile far righties did ok but not necessarily poll topping well. But the general right wing wave hasnât really materialised outside the prominent candidates.
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6 seats and a quota of 2,178
SF should get 2 from their 3 if they get any sort of AontĂș transfers. FF have one. PBP and SD would hope to get 1 each but Pepper will get all those National Party transfers youâd think.
Whereâs this Pepper chap running
Ballymun-Finglas
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