Lynne Boylan as predicted got a massive transfer from Daly.
The problem for Aodhan now is how many of Cuffeâs votes go to FF and FG before Aodhan.
Most of Cuffes will probably go to fellow Govt Party candidates Andrews and Doherty.
Only 32K of Cuffes are in play I think.
Cant see Boylan picking up any significant gains there. AOR probably needs 10% of Cuffes to overhaul Boylan which is doable. Im sure many greens will also not transfer to fellow govt parties because they may perceive they are not doing enough to combat climate change.
3,021 is the gap from Boylan to OâRiordan.
Cuffe has 40,393 to distribute. I think thatâs a bridgeable gap.
Youâd think the 3k he got from Gibney would go strongly to Aodhan. So even if that was 1k of an advantage it puts a huge dent in the gap.
If 60% go to government parties (which would be extremely high) and another 10% didnât transfer then heâd still have 13k between O Riordain, Lynn and Niall Boylan.
Even then O Riordain would only need half a 2:1:1 ratio in that remaining pot to get over the line.
Yeah Iâd be shocked if he doesnt overhaul from this position now. Boylan realistically would have needed a big pull from Claire Daly on the last count but that never materialised. Greens and Labour have both been minority govt partners, similar party size and see each other as broader allies in the grand scheme of things so there should be enough there for AOR to get over the threshold.
Scratch the above figures, I was reading off the previous count like an eejit.
2,578 is the gap.
43,582 to distribute from Cuffe.
AodhĂĄn will do it.
The South is going to be fierce tight also. Five in the running for the last three seats.
I think the whole forum is behind AodhĂĄn now.
I doubt that very much, very much indeed
He is a bohs cunt but he is pro cycling and the planet
Even if he was just a bohs cunt, anyone but boylan
Fuck him and his okey dokey wokey blokey shite.
Heâs a preening virtue signalling windbag. Would have much preferred Cuffe to keep his seat. On the plus side at least heâll be out of sight out of mind over in Brussels and wonât be heard from for another 5 blissful years.
Kell surprise we have a Niall Boylan fan
Iâm no fan of hers.
Aodhan is alright. Heâs on the right side of most of the big stuff.
It will be a great boost to Ivana Bacik and her Labour Party if they win a European seat.
Even though they wonât have a hope of retaining either his or his leaderâs DĂĄil seats?