He actually said at some point a while back he isnât overly concerned about value.
He just wants to back winners. I know a bookie who would know Johnny. Iâve known about him for years as he was always mentioned as being one of the shrewdest operators in the ring.
The Mullins/Jp horses often seem to be overlooked. That Indiana dream looked very good on just his second start. He was very green but ran through the line on bad ground in fairyhouse. The second was the same horse who was second to facile vega in his maiden hurdle.
Those of us who frequented Bowes know the story
Anybody, and i donât care if youâre JP McManus, Johnny Dineen or the man who spends 10 hours a day in the bookiesâŚif youâre punting the likes of Bo Zenith and Alastor you have a serious problem.
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Itâs always amuses me In betting if a person canât make something work they dismiss it and believe nobody else can do it.
There is plenty of ways to skin a cat. Dineen has stood the test of time. His methods wouldnât be for me but each to their own.
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He backed Bo Zenith at 4/11. It had drifted out from 1/5. Surely alarm bells would be ringing. I wouldnât call that shrewd.
Seems a very likeable character to be fair but comes across as a compulsive gambler which isnât a good thing.
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The mares hurdle winner
Good to get these Pricewise bizmarks out early
When you go back over the last three festivals the two Leopardstown meetings at Christmas and February are producing 80 plus percent of Willies festival placings.
The likes of champ kiely, marine National, Gerri columbe and mighty potter whoâve avoided these
Meetings should be bigger prices or taken on in a lot of instances at the festival.
That doesnât show any significance about anything.
Heâs run more horses at leopardstown so theyâve provided more positive results
The other 20% of positive results have come from horses who havenât run at leopardstown i presume.
So the strike rate of the horses who havenât run could be higher and it might be worth backing them
I havenât gone through all the results but of the supreme and Ballymore and three grade novice grade ones the correlation is huge. For races like 4 miler or the cross country thereâs no real race at Leopardstown.
It is of massive significance to me. Particularly when you look at the Irish trained horses outside of Willie who win at Leopardstown tend to do very well at Cheltenham.
Itâs very likely all these fairyhouse horses Gerri columbe, mighty p and marine National are shorter than they should be on the basis of their form.
Both willies last handicap hurdle winners were state man and galopin des champs. Both ran in Leopardstown as well.
Whatâs the strike rates ? A simple 80/20 maybe? split is indicitave of nothing.
Probably closer to 90 percent. Galopin would have won last year too for tipping up at the last and conflated would have been second only for falling.
Even the grade one mighty potter won at Christmas last year in Leopardstown which looked weak at the time produced the ballymore second and the mares novice third.
These Leopardstown races are much stronger pieces of form. Not much value maybe in willies but say a horse like quilixious who won a grade one at Leopardstown for Gordon was 4/1 for the triumph that morning.
I just went through the first day there, last year
Stattler his only winner didnât run at leopardstown, gaelic warrior didnât who was second.
Kilcruit and blue lord did and they finished third.
Day 2. Sir gerhard won who ran at leop. Whatdowewant didnât and was third.
Gaillard du mesnil 3rd did
Energuemene won and didnât
Thats 2 days that suggest you pulled information clean out your hole and are suggesting people take on horses for fuck all reason.
A 50/50 split but that could be just the tuesday and wednesday.
Basically. There is fuck all statistical significance to inform a betting strategy here
Iâd said the last three festivals.
Not the opening two days of last year.
I never said it was a betting strategy. I said the Leopardstown form is much stronger than the other strands of form in Ireland but everything is price related at the end of the day.
Youâre advising people to take on horses based on a horseshit piece of information.
2 of his 3 winners in the first two days last year never ran at leopardstown
I didnât advise anybody of anything. You are desperately looking for an argument for some reason. So you are just making things up and ranting.
Ok pal.
Iâll advise people. Donât take on a mullins horse just because it didnât run at leopardstown