That’s the first like I’ve given all day. There were some very good posts I thought deserved a like, but I’m still paranoid about what exactly @Rocko is up to. However, I’m a sucker for the weather thread of late.
Glad to see as well that @flattythehurdler’s boys over on boards are not predicting a heat wave in January. That would be really odd - possibly even end of days stuff?
I don’t mind offering up a week or so of normal weather to give the waters a time to recede but by fuck I live for cold, crisp, clear days. Drop the temperature please.
I’d had a look at the various runs coming out over the past few hours. The major models have a bit of a spread but the general theme is ever increasing chances of snow, have to say that the GEM model has actually outperformed the big two in the recent past, for example it had the right solution for Frank and more recently took a middle course on that storm from the Azores that the big two took turns overdeveloping. By the way that now seems to be destined to circle around for several days waiting for blocking to get out of its way and then head in weakened state towards France towards end of next week.
I would say the ECM is considerably more bullish on snow potential on the 12z runs but it only takes marginal tweaking of the 8-9 day GFS to get quite a good snowfall event across central Ireland. Best bet is that most people will see a bit of snow next week and a few may see lots while temperatures will be below normal if not below freezing necessarily (daytime, I think most places away from most temperate southwest coasts will have night frosts all week).
In the longer term, there is a higher probability of an active battleground scenario developing around the 20th-25th and it could be after that period that the deepest cold develops over northern Europe.
As long as things remain somewhat Atlantic influenced there’s always the problem of transient warming of incoming trough or frontal systems and it seems almost inevitable that the -8 C uppers on day 7-8 charts turn into -5 uppers in the actual event. That of course is just the marginal difference needed to turn a widespread snow event into hill snow and sleety rain near sea level. So I would rather expect a bit of that theme until the flow is less northwest and more north to northeast.