Stop making a fuss nothing to see here?
Not until someone shoots jpow and putin. Countries with the least energy resources and commodities are going to continue to be hammered until demand is stripped. First sign of the PCE turning in the US will be the turning point
Biggest concern is if Bailey pushes through an emergency meeting and ~100bps+ increase this week and gbp still falls towards parity. Thatās real emerging markets action and basically leaves no bullets. Gilts shooting up, if the 2 year gets to 5% and 6%+ that is scary for all. 2/10 is already inverted
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Wfh era is over. Justeataroo is over. New cars and iphones and nike tracksuits purhases or whatever you wear is over. This economic cycle which should have ended pre covid, with a relatively soft landing, is over. House prices in malahide will reduce significantly. A couple of years of recession ahead unless energy dynamics and the fed stop raising interest rates. Anything else?
yep that should do it for the dunces who could not keep up
glad house prices will fall
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Im in Birmingham on Wednesday. Ill bring over a few tea bags and Tayto for the uk based tfk gang
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Its here to stay in a hybrid model. Not for everyone but it works for plenty industries.
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And a couple of sliced pans
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Thatās not answering the question. How long until the dam bursts?
Anyone re-mortgaging in the UK could easily find themselves off a 1.15% interest rate and into a more normal and realistic 4% interest rate and thatās right now. In a month it could be a lot worse. I donāt think there were too many who took 5-10 year fixes out when they should have.
Despite this, there are a mental number of extremely expensive new cars about everywhere, presumably because people are 1.vain and 2. Were greedy/stupid enough to buy into the narrative that second hand car prices would remain at all time historic and frankly ludicrous highs. Many of said vehicles are large engine ICE which will hopefully be financially penalised into oblivion in shortish order.
Despite the rhetoric and doom however, even a scenario towards the worst case would leave a standard of living higher than the 80ās.
UKās big problem macro wise is sustaining a vastly increased burden of elderly folk in poor health for many more years than would have been expected 40 years ago Iād imagine. They also donāt have North sea oil revenues to fall back on, or public utilities to flog to their friends, or gold.
They have a significant brains trust, just nowhere near the levers of power.
Could be blood on the streets before this resets.
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The Tories in a nutshell.
Wasnāt Corbyn accused of being away with the fairies and he didnāt understand the real world and everyone said heād bankrupt the country? And now that the PM is a one who is actually genuinely hasnāt a clue and will quite possibly bankrupt the country not a word is said about it. Mad stuff altogether.
Drop them off in Nortons
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Weāve just renewed. Last monday actually. Itās not up till Jan but there was no fucking way we were going to leave it off. 5 year fixed at 4.75 I think. Works out an extra 110Ā£ a month. We were doing two year fixed the last few times as we were getting decent rates. Not worth the risk this time around.
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Iād expect a no confidence motion in the PM in October.
Be interesting to see what effect interest rate increases have on GBP fx rate over next 2 to 3 weeks. If they donāt work then all bets are off.
We have three years left of a five year fix at 1.79%
We were very lucky, though tbh, even though there was a one year fix at 1.15%, I figured 1.79 over 5 years was mental cheap. Weāre lucky enough to have the back of it broken anyhow tbh.
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You think the MPC will up the rate substantially? Theyve pretty much done what theyāve been told by the govt in recent times. I suspect they will do less rather than more. Not long since they were saying inflation would peak at 4% and drop back quickly, when a dog with a mallet up his hole knew it wouldnāt.
The BoE have just bottled it