Lord Ashcroft has ploughed millions into marginals so suspect they may do better in those areas than exit polls suggests
Perahps Larry. It depends on how regionalised the poll is. Itâs better than just taking overall percentages and allocating seats to them obviously but itâs very hard to call on first past the post this quickly.
US presidential election is similar in terms of having no PR and theyâd never make an early call like this. They go state by state and work it out from that. It was odd that BBC could say how many seats Tories would get on their poll but donât seem to know where theyâll get those seats. That gives me huge doubts about the accuracy of the poll. Unless theyâve done it constituency-by-constituency then it could be quite far off.
Any exit poll figures for the Northern Ireland constituencies? The battle between Jim Allister of the TUV & Ian Paisely Junior in North Antrim & Michelle Gildernew for IRA/Sinn Fein against Rodney Connor in Fermanagh/South Tyrone are two of the most intriguing contests in the 651 seats up for grabs.
The exit polls are shite. They only looked at 170 polling stations or something. Thereâs 650 odd constituencies. I know they obviously tried to pick representative polling stations but you canât tell much without calling it at a more local level.
Keep Irish discussions in Irish thread please.
Youâre surely Peter Robinson on AFR. Have to admire your perseverance on two fronts. Even took it as far as supporting Graeme Dott in the snooker. :rolleyes:
Iâd focus my attentions over there the lower average intelligence leads to far more responses.
This exit poll like all polls in this campaign is bit of a farce is it not? Excuse my ignorance but are they actually surveying in each constituency or not?
In '92 the exit poll said it was too close to call. A Tory majority gradually became apparent throughout the night. The first few marginal seats should give a good indication. Off the top of my head places like Basildon and Gravesend have been good indicators from previous elections.
No theyâre not. Nowhere near it. Itâs funny how they had their first television debate in this campaign and their exit poll system is farcical. They think the âturnout seems high but weâre not sure yetâ but theyâve done an exit poll? Iâm predicting itâll be off by over 30 seats on the big 3 parties.
Iâd take this exit poll with a grain of salt. I canât see the Lib Dems being as low as 59. Theyâre far more localised than other parties and Iâd anticipate any uniform swing wonât necessarily be as relevant to them. Notable that others are on 29 which is actually down 1 from 2005 exit poll.
Labour trying to woo Lib Dems with talk of voting reforms from the off.
Alan Johnsonâs earpiece in that interview with Paxman was about 3 seconds late - ended uplike the Apres Match interview with Dunphy and Sonia OâSullivan halfway around the world.
Agree on the exit poll stuff. Lib Dems were overstated after the debates but are probably understated here. Itâs hard to pick representative constituencies when thereâs a big swing too because it wonât be that uniform as you suggest.
The one lost for Independents could be George Galloway. Again we donât even know if they polled that constituency though. So it could be that theyâre concluding heâll lose his seat (in his new constituency which he probably will) on the basis of SNP struggling in Glasgow.
Arnold Schwarzeneger has rang to congratulate Cameron.
That Channel 4 election coverage show is pretty awful. I missed Allistar Campbellâs interview because of it as well 
Exit polls are for the media. I remember how decisively they projected John Kerry as the winner in the 2004 election.
The likes of East Renfrewshire in Glasgow and Sefton Central the old Crosby seat in Merseyside traditionally declare quite early and will tell a lot. First seats in Sunderland all safe Labour seats.
Bridget Phillipson romps home. The change since 2005 will tell us something probably.
Labour on 50% today, Tories on 21%. Thatâs Labour down 12, Tories up 5 and Independents taking the rest of the swing. Hard to read anything into that. Tories not getting a great boost but there canât be that many considering them in Sunderland.
If its a tight result it could be constitutionally challenging. Luckily the resevoir of experience garnered from nearly 60 years on the throne will come in handy.
Now Sharon Hodgson gets in. 2-0 Labour. This could be a landslide.