Itâs hardly earth shattering stuff mate is it? Iâd say thereâs more probability of wiki releasing Trump scandal stuff at this stage than Hillary, Iâd say they have fuck all on her.
Assange wonât release anything on Trump, he hates Clinton and Obama.
Simon Carswell reports from Beaver County about the Pussy remark.
Rattled.
Wouldnât that be classed as voter fraud
Where exactly did you predict a Brexit outcome? Feel free to quote the relevant post/s.
However the evidence appears to be that you did not predict a Brexit outcome at all, and in fact believed Brexit would lose.
Em, maybe what most people are predicting a Hillary Clinton win because thatâs what they think will happen? 
It really would be quite hard to predict otherwise, looking at the polls. Nevertheless, do keep convincing yourself that you know whatâs going to happen, even if it flies in the face of all evidence.
Who knows, maybe youâll be right, but thereâs no evidence whatsoever that you will be.
Clinton has consistently had a massive lead over Trump among young people. Feel free to quote any poll you can find regarding such and find me one where Trump is even close.
It looks like youâre the one who is out of touch.
Itâs terribly funny, really. You ramble on constantly about the âliberal mediaâ, âthe Democratic machineâ, and âCNNâ. Youâre obsessed with them.
Then you write the following:
Classic cognitive dissonance.
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Someone who perpetually predicts Liverpool to win the EPL shouldnât really be debating predictive powers.
I understand you have an obsessive need to find contradictions in what other posters say, and somehow make that into an argument, but all it does is expose you as a loon.
When everyone on here was adamant on a Bremain outcome, I was the lone voice of caution, fact. The important point on Brexit is that all the polls, up to the day ahead of the vote, were predicting a defeat for Brexit. Polls are turning out to be increasingly unreliable, and there is a good reason for it. Polling is based on landlines as most mobile phone numbers are not available or legal to use (its illegal here to make a telemarketing call to a mobile number, not sure about Ireland). Most people donât even use a landline any more, and literally no young person uses one. The result is those doing the polls keep calling landlines until someone picks up, so realistically itâs a poll of people who use a landline.
Itâs easy to predict a Hillary victory, just as it was easy to predict since the campaign began. Hillary was always going to be the Democratic nominee, a corrupt DNC and the lapdog mainstream media made sure of that. I never said the media have no influence, they have declining influence, but they still have enormous influence over morons who canât think for themselves. The danger for Hillary is that there are more people who are informed of the issues, which is why her campaign have to continue to come up with distractions like the 11 year old Trump tape.
All I said was that you deemed a Brexit win âunlikelyâ on the day, and I quoted the relevant post.
You said you predicted a Brexit outcome but havenât quoted where you said that.
The Brexit polls were extremely close. You say âall the polls predicted a defeat for Brexitâ.
This is completely incorrect.
Between May 22nd and the murder of Jo Cox on June 16th, a week before the referendum, there were 29 polls and 18 of them had Leave ahead. Even after June 16th when the polls showed a slight switch back to Remain, there were three polls which showed Leave ahead.
The comparison between Trump and Brexit has been made many times but itâs clear that those making the comparison donât know what the polls before the Brexit referendum said. If Trump is ahead in 18 of the next 29 polls, then a comparison can be made.
Only the LA Times poll has been a consistent outlier in having Trump ahead during the campaign and thereâs excellent reason to think this is based on a faulty methodology, relying as it does on the same sample of people every single time.
The data supports my argument not yours. My argument is that polling is increasingly unreliable, and Brexit is a prime example. Obviously the Jo Cox murder was a key event, and had a similar impact on polling as the Trump tape has in the US.
If you exclude polls that are within the margin of error (generally 3%), in the week before the Cox murder there were 6 polls indicating a leave result and none for stay. In the week after the Cox murder, there were 4 polls indicating a stay result, and none for leave. This was in an environment of constant establishment party and media support for stay, and a deliberate attempt to tie the murder (the act of a lunatic) to those in favor of Brexit. The last poll, on June 22, which had the largest sample number, had a massive 55% to 45% outcome for stay.
The polls were wrong, plain and simple. The question is why, and the reason I gave in my prior reply is generally accepted as the most likely to be correct.
The Brexit outcome was a fuck you to the establishment political parties in the UK, and their lapdog media. A vote for Trump is the same in the US. Just like the media were out of touch with sentiment in the UK prior to Brexit, they are also quite possibly out of touch with sentiment in the US.
@anon7035031 is correct in that polling is definitely more unreliable.
If it wasnât for Trumpâs rape bile coming out I would give him a good chance in this. I definitely believed in the shy Trumper factor and a combo of millennials not giving a fuck about HRC giving Trump a win.
Hilarious how youâre posting UK opinion polling data here when you ignore data that suggests Corbynâs isnât doing well elsewhere
Seven polling companies did a poll of polls on the day of the referendum and six of them had the margin at 2 points or under.
The correct assumption in the polls, the media and elsewhere was that the result was on a knife edge.
Again the narrative that âall the polls were wrongâ is simply wrong.
It completely ignores the 21 separate polls that put Leave ahead in the month before the referendum.
There is no debate about this. Itâs black and white stuff.
Polling in the 2012 US election was significantly skewed in favour of the Republicans.
The final spread was Obama +0.7 with the actual margin being Obama +3.9.
With Clintonâs superior ground game, this is a distinct possibility again.
One of the things the Trump supporters have loudly proclaimed at every opportunity is how unpopular Clinton is.
Therefore they may also not be factoring a shy Clinton supporter effect.
I would also wager that there is a significant proportion of women in traditionally Republican supporting areas who will desert Trump - a shy anti-Trump effect.
But I havenât tried to claim Corbyn is ahead in polls or that if there was an election next month or in six months that heâd win.
I havenât even tried to claim Labour would be the biggest party at the next election, even if thatâs in 2020, as itâs likely to be.
If I had, you might have a point. I havenât done that, so you havenât got a point.
No, the correct assumption is that up to the Cox murder there was a small lead in the polling to leave, but the majority of polls were within the margin of error. After the Cox murder there was a definite swing in the polls to remain.
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It really is an incongruous duo to be such an avid supporter of - Jeremy Corbyn and Hillary Clinton.
There appeared to be a slight swing back towards Remain after the Cox murder as Iâve already said, but the majority of polls before it were putting Leave ahead. Even after it some polls still showed Leave ahead and the general pattern of the polls after the Cox murder still pointed to an extremely close result with a significant chance of a Leave victory.
What transpired was that the murder of Cox did not end up having a huge effect in the way people voted, and the actual result reflected the pattern the polls had been showing in the May 22nd to June 16th period, when 18 of 29 polls put Leave ahead.
The Brexit case is not similar to this US election. Bar a small number of individual polls that have put Trump narrowly ahead, the clear and consistent trend for many months, and certainly since it became obvious it would be a Clinton-Trump match up, is that Clinton has been ahead and more often than not comfortably so - sheâs never lost the lead in the poll spread, and that trend appears to be only hardening now that weâre well into the critical weeks before the election.
That Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Alaska are now all in play is a truly disastrous reflection on the Trump campaign.
A turnaround from here and from this sort of margin would be pretty much unprecedented, certainly in modern history.
Who the fuck is Evan McMullin???
Heâs polling 22% in Presidential polls in UtahâŚ
Some homegrown Mormon by the looks of things.
Would be fucking gas if between him and Johnson they took enough votes away from Trump that Clinton ended up winning Utah of all places.
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We have now definitely entered full on twilight zone, if we werenât there already. Hot on the heels of Trumpâs video, a woman is now claiming that Trump felt her up on a flight 30 years ago. The absolute idiot actually said on national TV âIf he had stuck to the upper part of my body that would have been OK, but when he put his hand up my skirt that was too muchâ. For fucks sake.
Mate, you can discount all the Trump sexual assault stories (ongoing, more to come) all you want, but it doesnât take away from the fact that more women will vote in this election than men and currently Clinton has something like a 30% lead over Trump in female polls.