Clooney2024
TheRock2028
Kanyeâs got this
Liz Warrenâs campaign is getting some good momentum
Up to 13% in the latest Democratic primary poll
I think people appreciate a politician who has the courage of their convictions and isnât trying to speak out the side of their mouth all the time for fear of upsetting people
I think sheâll do very well when the debates roll around
She looks way stronger on policy than pretty much all other candidates
You can still get 9/1 on Elizabeth Warren being the Democratic nominee and 18/1 to win the election
Biden is faltering and weâre not even near debate time yet, where Warren should be strongest
She is steadily building momentum
Early days but I think we can say Sanders is done, and will continue to drop.
Biden is still in pole position but vulnerable as he is being and will be attacked relentlessly by more progressive candidates.
Warren struggles with the electability factor, and how to pay for all her grandiose plans. Free stuff for all sounds great until people ask who is paying for it. Even on health care, 70% of Americans are happy with their health insurance and 80% of those on government programs. 320 million of 330 million Americans have health insurance and sure as hell donât want to pay more for it.
Harris and Buttigieg are not well known enough nationally to pay much attention to their poll standings yet.
I still expect the Democrats will go for the safe option, so Biden, but someone could emerge from the pack early next year to present a serious challenge. Whomever has the ability to move to the center and do so credibly stands a good chance.
âElectabilityâ and âmoving to the centreâ is bollocks
Authenticity is where itâs at
Warren is excellent at connecting with people
She speaks with enthusiasm, knowledge and a genuine empathy
She isnât afraid to offend people
Her firm stance on impeaching Trump is one reason why she is surging
I suspect Bidenâs candidacy may be dead in the water before the primaries even begin
Biden is âMr. Electabilityâ, despite several failed runs before
When you focus on âelectabilityâ youâre automatically conceding the agenda and focussing on not offending people
Thatâs how you lose people
Obama was initially thought unelectable, he proved anything but
The democrats want a candidate who wins the bellweather started . They need real good focus groups to ascertain what is needed . I was talking recently to an octogenarian cork man now back home who spent at least 30 years in construction too. In NYC , unions GAA and a Democrat supporter . He reckons Trump will be very very hard beaten .
Andrew Yang is the man. He wonât win but will make waves.
Why
Heâs literally promising to give away free money
He has a bizarre alt-right following
Thereâs something really strange going on there
Obama was seen as a outsider but not unelectable . He was running against republicans after 8 years incumbency where economy tanked and country was bogged down in shameful war in Iraq
Frank Luntz says Democrats consistently rely too much on polling when forming policy
He says you need a candidate who connects in the gut
I tend to agree strongly
In my understanding relying on polling to form policy is more code for not offending people
Warren connects in the gut and in the heart I think
Biden definitely doesnât and none of the other candidates bar perhaps Sanders do either
What the Democrats need is a bold candidate, not a âsafeâ candidate
The bold candidates tend to win and the âsafeâ ones tend to lose
Obama was a bold choice, Bill Clinton in his own way was too
Gore, Kerry and Hillary Clinton were all âsafeâ candidates
He was seen as unelectable in the conventional wisdom for a whole host of reasons
He is black
His middle name is Hussein
He had links to Bill Ayers
Heâd only been in the senate since the start of 2005
He was anti-war
The US economy had not yet tanked
It was believed he would be destroyed by the right-wing media
He was going up against Hillary Clinton who was seen as unassailable and had greater funding and was the choice of superdelegates
Sid
The key thing here is there is probably 10 to 15 percent of the electorate in swing states whose votes are up for grabs and will decide who becomes POTUS. Elizabeth Warren appeals to you and many European liberals but can she connect with the crucial demographic .
Warren is in fact excellently placed to carry those swing states, particularly in the mid-west
Democrats need a candidate who connects with a bold message which will bring out their base in huge numbers
That is how you win
Had Clinton got the Democratic base to turn out in decent numbers, she would have carried those three states
But her lacklustre campaign meant she couldnât do it
Warrenâs central economic message is very well suited to those swing states in terms of winning over floaters and sheâs doing a good job of exposing Trump for doing absolutely nothing for people in those states - she carries a similar message to Sanders but without the baggage
And sheâs a better communicator - sheâs superb at it
Communicating with passion was a huge problem for Hillary Clinton
American voted for trump because he was a man. Now take that and dissect it whatever way you want. And the same will happen again, heâll walk in without a contest, Clinton threw the kitchen sink into the campaign and he still won. God bless democracy, and God bless the United States of America.
2 Likes
Iâm glad you finally see the light regarding Clintonâs unsuitability as a presidential candidate.
Strangely enough I think the people who voted for Trump are more likely to vote for Warren/Sanders than Biden.
Universal basic income is not giving away free money. Thatâs like complaining people on social welfare get free money. Very right wing of you to say that! Itâs an interesting concept and hardly unique to Yang. Its been around for years. Iâm fairly sure the Clinton camp looked at it a few years ago. Itâs being trialled in Scotland,Canada, Finland and lots of other places right now.
What do you mean by he has âan alt-right followingâ? His policy proposals are all very left of centre.
It is what it says.
He has a large alt-right following and is being heavily pushed by the likes of 4Chan and 8Chan, as well as actual Nazi Richard Spencer.