US Presidential Election 2020

You almost have the feeling that none of these states wants to be the tipping point state and are going as slow as possible hoping one of the others will finish first.

Georgia will be finished soon enough

Does this thing about not counting ballots that arrive late have any merit at all? Is that not all completely above board that once they were posted by election day they are good?

They want to stop counting in states where the remaining votes lean Democrat (PA, GA) and keep counting in states where they lean Republican (AZ, NV). Selective democracy.

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It varies by state, just like everything.

Why is medicare for all unpopular? If say even the most died in the wool blueshirt of all time here would favour a single tier health system

Because it is Communism

Itā€™s a matter of state law. Trump is talking out his hole.
Each state has its own laws and rules governing that, and Republicans love state rights/autonomy.

The irony is military overseas votes historically show up after Election Day, so he wants to disenfranchise the boys putting their lives on the line to defend freedom.

Because most people have heath insurance through their work and donā€™t want to give it up and have their health care managed by the government who they see as incompetent.

I think he wants to stop counting everywhere full stop. Winning NC, GA and PA would mean a successful challenge in WI or MI would carry him over 270.

I said trump accidentally put in an O here.

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That makes sense. Shows the difference between Irish and Americans too though.

Only 49% of people have healthcare through their job, and good number of those arenā€™t opposed to single payer.
Many of the people opposed to single payer are poor white peopke with no insurance who have been brainwashed into thinking it is socialism/communism.

There is zero chance of a legal challenge in MI or WI prevailing, the Biden margins of victory are greater than Trump in 2016.

I might be wrong but his statement on election night was about stopping voting?

Iā€™d say you were a dinger at copying other peoples homework and passing it as your own.

Your still absolutely seething from last week :rofl:

Joe Biden looks to be on the cusp of winning the election. Hereā€™s a look at where the vote count stands in the key states.

Pennsylvania

President Trumpā€™s lead in Pennsylvania has plummeted to two percentage points as of Thursday morning, as the mail absentee ballot count proceeded briskly across the state.

There is every indication that Mr. Biden remains on track to pull ahead when all of the votes are in and counted, whenever that may be.

So far, Mr. Biden has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same 77-22 pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. Thatā€™s a pretty decent cushion.

That estimate may also be conservative. For one, the remaining mail ballots are disproportionately in Democratic counties, so heā€™ll probably do better than 77-22. Another factor: There are more remaining absentee votes than estimated here; the state tally as of Tuesday does not include mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrived afterward (and Iā€™m not entirely sure whether it includes mail ballots placed in Election Day drop boxes, but Iā€™m assuming so out of caution).

To that point, the Pennsylvania election web page says there are 763,000 mail ballots left to be counted. I think thatā€™s mainly because itā€™s out of date, and additional mail ballots have been counted since the page was last updated. But it may also reflect additional mail ballots. It might also be both.

And finally, there are still Election Day ballots left in Philadelphia, as well as provisional ballots ā€” votes cast by people who couldnā€™t initially be verified as eligible voters when they showed up to cast a ballot, like someone who went to the wrong precinct ā€” that will cushion Mr. Biden.

The provisional count might be especially large here this year, since voters who requested a mail ballot but decided to vote in person (and didnā€™t surrender their mail ballot in person) were also forced to vote provisionally, so as to make sure their votes werenā€™t double-counted. Only one county, York County, has reported these results: There were 10,000 of them, and Mr. Biden won them by nine points. The county voted for Mr. Trump by 25 points. If the pattern held elsewhere in the state, it would pad Mr. Bidenā€™s statewide margin by nearly two percentage points ā€” though thereā€™s a lot of uncertainty in that extrapolation.

If you want a gut check on the big picture, look at the swing map on our results page, which shows how things have changed since 2016 in the counties where we think the vote is done. In the places where the count has mostly wrapped up, Mr. Biden is mostly running ahead of Hillary Clintonā€™s 2016 showing ā€” and often by a significant margin.

Now take that logic statewide: If Mr. Biden runs ahead of her 2016 performance by a modest margin statewide, he carries the state. And thatā€™s before the provisional vote count.

If Mr. Biden is the projected winner in Pennsylvania, heā€™ll be the president-elect.

Arizona

Joe Bidenā€™s lead in Arizona fell to 2.4 points Wednesday night, as late mail ballots broke toward Mr. Trump by a significant margin. This runs counter to the pattern weā€™ve seen elsewhere in the country, but it was expected, or at least not a surprise.

Why are late mail ballots better for Mr. Trump here? Unlike most other states, Arizona has a huge number of permanent absentee mail votes, and theyā€™re slightly Republican by registration. This year, the Democratic absentee voters rushed in their ballots, giving Democrats an unusual lead in the stateā€™s early mail vote. As a consequence, the group of voters who had received but not returned mail ballots was disproportionately Republican heading into the weekend before the election.

Over all, Mr. Trump won the ballots counted in Arizona on Wednesday night by about 23 points. Itā€™s hard to say whether that pace will be enough for Mr. Trump to win, since it depends on exactly how many ballots are left (we donā€™t know this with the precision necessary for a close race). It also depends on what kinds of late mail ballots are left, and what kinds of votes were counted Wednesday night.

Election 2020 ā€ŗ

Latest Updates

Updated

Nov. 5, 2020, 10:30 a.m. ET21 minutes ago

21 minutes ago

There are two kinds of late mail ballots in Arizona: those that arrived in the mail in the days ahead of the election, and those that were dropped off at a polling place on Election Day. These two kinds often lean differently politically, and they can be counted at different times, too. Without knowing which of these ballots we saw Wednesday night, itā€™s hard to be too sure whether Mr. Trumpā€™s on track for something close to a comeback.

In general, the Election Day drop-off mail ballots are usually better for Democrats. If those ballots werenā€™t included in Wednesdayā€™s count, thatā€™s good news for Mr. Biden.

No matter how you cut the data, itā€™s hard not to arrive at the conclusion that Mr. Bidenā€™s lead will withstand the late vote. But thereā€™s also enough uncertainty with the number and kind of ballots left that it would be a mistake to be too sure about it. Certainly, it is too soon to project the state for Mr. Biden.

Georgia

The presidentā€™s lead in the state all but vanished overnight. Mr. Trump now leads by four-tenths of a percentage point ā€” just under 19,000 votes ā€” after heavily Democratic ballots in the Atlanta area were finally counted. There are still more absentee ballots left for Mr. Biden.

Itā€™s not clear exactly how many ballots there are and where; there was conflicting information this morning, and things are so close that even modest differences will be decisive.

This morning, the Georgia secretary of state initially said there were 25,000 ballots remaining. If so, Mr. Bidenā€™s push might fall just short of victory, though heā€™d still have a chance with provisional ballots. Then, later in the morning, the secretary of state said it was 50,000 ballots. And now, The New York Times is reporting that the state voting system implementation manager says there are 61,367 remaining ballots. The latter numbers come a lot closer to our estimates, and that would be enough for Mr. Biden to be a favorite. But caution is warranted, given the mixed messaging.

We also donā€™t have a number on the provisional ballot count, but weā€™re in the territory where those could be a crucial factor. And if youā€™re wondering, our election night forecaster, the needle, did assume some number of provisional ballots would break heavily for Mr. Biden, helping to make him a very narrow favorite to win the state.

Some of you have wondered where our three needles went. Theyā€™re turned off. Weā€™re not staffed to monitor them 24/7: We depend on hundreds of feeds that we donā€™t control, and if they did something unexpected it would have big consequences for needle movement in a close race.

Nonetheless, the needle lives on internally here at The Times, and Mr. Biden still leads in Georgia by the same narrow margin that he did when we turned it off. But again, this all depends on exactly how many ballots are left, including provisionals.

Nevada

We didnā€™t get any new ballots, and Mr. Biden still holds a lead. The remaining vote: mail ballots received on Election Day and provisionals. Thereā€™s reason to expect these will pad Mr. Bidenā€™s lead: Democrats were outpacing Republicans by a two-to-one margin in the stateā€™s mail ballot returns, and provisionals lean Democratic just about everywhere. But weā€™ll wait to be sure. We should get more data today.

North Carolina

Weā€™re still waiting to see how many mail ballots arrived after the election, and whether theyā€™re enough to overcome the presidentā€™s lead. Thereā€™s not much reason to expect it, but here again weā€™ll wait to be sure.


The Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania Appe

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He just tweeted that no ballots received after Election Day should be counted. Many if not most states allow ballots received after Election Day to be counted as long as they are post marked by election. That has been the case for decades.

A majority of people support the concept of a single payer plan but they also believe they can keep their existing health insurance. This was clearly debated in the Democratic debates and Biden won the argument. If you drill down into the polls, what most people want is a government health plan as an option and expand Medicaid or Obamacare to cover more on lower incomes.