But he didnāt, thatās what went wrong.
I urge you to exercise some caution on this ā28% of black people will vote for Trumpā point. The internet may not forget.
A Republican president and Democratic controlled House of Representatives, and states that are a mix. More importantly though, politics is local, so when you have civil unrest in a city for example, who do normal people look to to resolve it? I would say they look to their local officials, like mayors, governors, etc.
Itās not my point, and it may not turn out to be accurate, it is however a huge issue. The assumption that black voters will just vote Democrat is a very dangerous one. Biden needs to clearly define what he is going to do to improve the lives of black and other minorities, and shutting down the country again as he has suggested isnāt what they are waiting for.
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Okay if we go with your premise that National polls are meaningless hereās a few swing state polls by Fox News just released tonight.
Fox News Polls Toplines
AZ Biden up 49-40
WI Biden up 50-42
NC Biden up 50-46
Better to handle policing / criminal justice in wake of Kenosha:
AZ: Biden +5
WI: Biden +5
NC: Trump +1
AZ Senate: Kelly 56, McSally 39
NC Senate: Cunningham 48, Tillis 42
All states that Trump won in 2016, with early voting starting next week in some states he is in dire trouble.
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Trump can afford to lose some states he won in 2016. As long as states are within the margin of error they are too hard to call. There is some evidence that the bump Trump got from the convention may be fading, the polls after the first debate will be telling.
I wouldnāt be betting the house on any election based on opinion polls.
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Great bit of stuff here from Conrad Black.
Conrad Black, the convicted fraudster pardoned by President Trump.
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Congratulations to President Trump on winning the prestigious Bay of Pigs award in Florida
No pork barrel politics there
Prediction Time .
I thinks there may be a silent 3 or 4 % swing to Trump frim what the polls are reporting.
Biden 283
Trump 255
Prediction based on the the following
Trump - AZ (11) , FL (29), NC (15), OH (18)
Biden - MI (16), NV (6), WI(10) and the dodgiest PA(20)
Reckon all comes down to Pennsylvania.
Is there a definite swing for DT ??? I think his goose is cooked and burnt tbh .
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Depends on what polls you look at.
There is only 4-5% in each of the states above and more like 2-3% in most.
Places like Florida, NC and AZ were looking to be Biden states a few weeks back but its tightening up.
There are 125 votes in the 8 states above and a late swing either way could end up with a win either way. Either a Biden landslide or Trump getting over the line. Trump has to win Fl, NC and Ohio.
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Over 50 million have voted already Biden is up by over 9 nationally on average polls leads significantly in WI PA and MI and looks likely to take NC and AZ while TX, OH, GA and FL are toss ups. Only question now is how big he will win, Trump is done.
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Biden only needs Wi, Mi and PA to win. And he appears to have a decent lead in each of these. I also think the silent Trump vote may be overstated this time. Itās one thing to be embarrassed about admitting to voting for an untested Trump, itās another thing entirely to be embarrassed about voting for a sitting President
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Biden needs to win convincingly to stop this getting
locked up for weeks and the disaster that would be
Very true. Needs to have a solid 5-6% + lead on national votes and take the college by a margin of 70-80 with no material states having a margin of <2%. Is that possible/probable?
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A 269 apiece tie would be some crack, especially if a couple of state delegations swing to the Democrats. Itās 26-23 at the moment, with one tie.
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Back to hanging chads.
There is a 269-269 stalemate scenario. Something like Trump losing the vote he holds in Maine, losing in Pennsylvania, Michigan but winning in Florida,
Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
The House would save Trump if it was a tie as itās the outgoing house and notwithstanding overall Democratic majority, GOP hold majority state by state.
Reckon Sleepy Joe is looking at 340-350, Trump 190-200.
Thereās a couple of scenarios that could get to 269 all. Btw, itās the incoming house that gets to vote on president. The outgoing house votes to ratify the electoral college, but if its tied that punts it to the incoming house to make the call. A couple of flips in Florida (which is currently 14-13 in favor of Republicans) and Pennsylvania (which is a 9-9 tie) would mean each party has 25 state delegations each.
You could end up with a scenario where the Democrats take the senate and the senate votes for Harris for VP and she becomes acting president till the house finds a way to break the deadlock for President.
A Trump-Harris scenario would be great crack.