Quite the opposite. The rhetoric, media, vitriol etc around trump has increased dramatically since 2016. Cancel culture has embedded itself, Hollywood is uniting against him, social media accounts have been suspendedā¦
Itās understood that hollywood sells californiacation
Biden will walk this.
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Donāt underestimate the Republicans in America . When they get out and vote itās game ,set ,match .
What way does voting work? Why are their massive queues to vote? Do different states vote at different times and is it just for one day?
In person voting only one day, Nov 3. All states have mail in voting if you request it but a subset require an excuse (living in another state, disabled, ill, etc).
It varies from place to place depending on where the republicans have been able to gerrymander and close voting stations in black neighbourhoods or limit access or voting times or generally disenfranchise the people that donāt vote republican and havenāt the wherewithal to challenge them and things like that.
How does the count work with all of these mail in ballots, is there an RDS type of place in each state where there are hundreds of counters or is it done electronically. ?Will the TV networks be able to call the state at 9pm?, if not then when. This could end up as a clusterfuck if on the night they will be able to call it. Will it be worth staying up for it?
So thatās the biggest unknown. Thereās a huge increase in mail in ballots this year mainly due to Covid and in many states counting doesnāt begin until Nov 3rd, so depending on resources counting may not be complete for several days after. If a state is tight, expect there will be challenges and court battles. It could become an absolute clusterfuck if the outcome is close.
Iām seeing big last-minute passion and momentum for Trump and no real strong pro or negative feeling for Biden.
I think that if it just came down to polling day Trump might have a 30-40% chance of nicking it on the line but the fact that most of the postal votes are already in should mean that Trump has basically no chance.
Trumpās biggest problem, apart from himself, is the widespread complete indifference to Biden. Biden is doing the right thing in just keeping his head down and saying nothing.
Some guy I know who lives in the US now had a Facebook post up about queuing for 2 hours to vote at the weekend. I think heās in up state new York.
Thereās a huge increase in early voting as well this year. Like everything in the US it varies by state and county, some offer it, some donāt. Most places arenāt well set up for the demand this year.
Florida says they will release the count for the early and absentee ballots as soon as the polling places close on Election Day. Which makes you wonder if they are already counting them as they come in, and further wonder if someone knows what that count is and could be leaked out.
Given a massive number of people are voting early, once those numbers are released they might be able to call the election right there and then, because if it looks like Biden has an unassailable lead then Trump really has no path to victory without Florida.
Watch Georgia. Hasnāt been won by a Democrat since Clinton in 92. Neck and neck in the polls.
In Oregon itās all mail in voting. Some states you need special exemption to vote by mail (old, infirm, military etc). Most are somewhere in between. Many offer early voting, but the window on that varies from state to state. Itās all over the shop really.
If Sleepy Joe wins in Georgia, itās a landslide. I suspect he could sneak it.
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Is there any state Trump didnāt win last time out which he has a realistic chance of winning this time?
Outside shot at Virginia, no other Iād imagine
Outside chance in Nevada and Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine to a lesser degree. All unlikely though.
Not particularly, small but diminishing chance in Nevada but Iād expect Biden to win here by 5-6 points, he got within 1.5% in Minnesota but all polling here has Biden by 8-10 points. It hasnt gone for the GOP since 1972 in Tricky Dickys landslide over McGovern.