Early days but I think we can say Sanders is done, and will continue to drop.
Biden is still in pole position but vulnerable as he is being and will be attacked relentlessly by more progressive candidates.
Warren struggles with the electability factor, and how to pay for all her grandiose plans. Free stuff for all sounds great until people ask who is paying for it. Even on health care, 70% of Americans are happy with their health insurance and 80% of those on government programs. 320 million of 330 million Americans have health insurance and sure as hell donât want to pay more for it.
Harris and Buttigieg are not well known enough nationally to pay much attention to their poll standings yet.
I still expect the Democrats will go for the safe option, so Biden, but someone could emerge from the pack early next year to present a serious challenge. Whomever has the ability to move to the center and do so credibly stands a good chance.
The democrats want a candidate who wins the bellweather started . They need real good focus groups to ascertain what is needed . I was talking recently to an octogenarian cork man now back home who spent at least 30 years in construction too. In NYC , unions GAA and a Democrat supporter . He reckons Trump will be very very hard beaten .
Obama was seen as a outsider but not unelectable . He was running against republicans after 8 years incumbency where economy tanked and country was bogged down in shameful war in Iraq
He was seen as unelectable in the conventional wisdom for a whole host of reasons
He is black
His middle name is Hussein
He had links to Bill Ayers
Heâd only been in the senate since the start of 2005
He was anti-war
The US economy had not yet tanked
It was believed he would be destroyed by the right-wing media
He was going up against Hillary Clinton who was seen as unassailable and had greater funding and was the choice of superdelegates
The key thing here is there is probably 10 to 15 percent of the electorate in swing states whose votes are up for grabs and will decide who becomes POTUS. Elizabeth Warren appeals to you and many European liberals but can she connect with the crucial demographic .
Warren is in fact excellently placed to carry those swing states, particularly in the mid-west
Democrats need a candidate who connects with a bold message which will bring out their base in huge numbers
That is how you win
Had Clinton got the Democratic base to turn out in decent numbers, she would have carried those three states
But her lacklustre campaign meant she couldnât do it
Warrenâs central economic message is very well suited to those swing states in terms of winning over floaters and sheâs doing a good job of exposing Trump for doing absolutely nothing for people in those states - she carries a similar message to Sanders but without the baggage
And sheâs a better communicator - sheâs superb at it
Communicating with passion was a huge problem for Hillary Clinton
American voted for trump because he was a man. Now take that and dissect it whatever way you want. And the same will happen again, heâll walk in without a contest, Clinton threw the kitchen sink into the campaign and he still won. God bless democracy, and God bless the United States of America.
Universal basic income is not giving away free money. Thatâs like complaining people on social welfare get free money. Very right wing of you to say that! Itâs an interesting concept and hardly unique to Yang. Its been around for years. Iâm fairly sure the Clinton camp looked at it a few years ago. Itâs being trialled in Scotland,Canada, Finland and lots of other places right now.
What do you mean by he has âan alt-right followingâ? His policy proposals are all very left of centre.
Are you telling me Yang isnât being promoted by right-wing crazies?
The far right would love to install a trojan horse Democratic candidate to create chaos.
Tulsi Gabbard is another one and sheâs actually much more inclined towards soft soaping the far right than Yang is himself.
In any event, neither her nor Yang are gaining any traction in the real world and have no hope.
There are at most six candidates who have any hope whatsoever of the nomination unless something totally unforeseeable happens, a large majority are there to boost their profiles.
Tinfoil hat alert. Yang has interesting policy proposals. If some 4chan basement dwellers decide they like him and start making memes of him are you saying that makes him an alt right plant! If some kook supports a candidate then that invalidates the candidate and their stated positions in your book! Do I have that right? Itâs an easy way to smear someone but quite frankly mental. For a purported critical thinker youâre coming across as paranoid and fairy dumb in that post.
For what itâs worth I think Yang doesnât have a hope of getting elected but his policy proposals may get some attention and traction if he gets in to the debates. You donât have any interest in discussing policy though as you are too busy fighting the bogeyman from your basement yourselfâŚ
Whatever about the merits of Yang, this simply is not going to happen. UBI has slowly being gaining traction and now 2/3 of Democrats support the idea and about 1/3 of Republicans, so roughly 50% overall. The concept is probably the best solution to income inequality, but the balance is to maintain the incentive to work. Negative Income Tax is likely the best approach, as low to mid range earners pay no income tax anyway but still struggle to make ends meet, and the idea is to extend that so that those on lower income get money from the government to bring them to a minimum wage.
I think it has a lot of merit but cannot simply be a handout to everyone, except to those that cannot work for medical reasons or have no work skills.
