The magic number imho is 20% fully vaccinated for hospital, icu and death numbers to absolutely collapse towards single digits weekly. 50% which we will be at end of June is more than enough to safely open. Anyone who doesn’t take it know the risks and its their own fault if they get seriously ill or die.
Its done
I didn’t say fully vaccinated.
You are shifting now from supply to the organisation of the HSE, that’s a separate issue.
The HSE have successfully scaled up so far. They made mistakes and the IT system has been an issue, but they are getting there.
Anyone who is an adult and wants a vaccine will be able to get it before the end of July.
You did.
The UK have made the same provision by July. The UK are about 2 full months ahead of Ireland with its vaccine rollout.
The U.K. and their timelines are irrelevant. This is Ireland and is subject to different metrics including dosing intervals, demographics and supply. As it happens, I’d expect the U.K. will actually meet that target by the June 21st date but that’s not really relevant.
We are due 6m vaccines by mid July. Even 5.5m available to use is more than sufficient to mean that anyone who wants an appointment will have gotten one.
Eh, no I didn’t.
I think the UK are actually meeting their targets where Ireland have failed at every meaningful vaccination target so far. If you want to believe they will hit 4m doses in the next 13 weeks then good luck with that.
The only way they achieve that is if they stagger the interval between first and second doses.
The four week interval will catch them otherwise.
You did.
I don’t think the EU said that at all.
The American rollout seems to have come off the rails in the last coupe of weeks. Is it a case that anyone who wants it has now gotten it? Uptake would not seem to be that high if that’s the case.
Yeah, it peaked at 3.4 million a day and has dropped to 2.6 million. It varies by state but over 50% of the adult population has had at last one shot, so essentially all of the at risk categories and people who were motivated to get vaccinated are likely done. Everyone over 16 is eligible, but it will slow further as there’s a significant subset of younger people who either don’t want to get vaccinated or aren’t motivated. The estimate is that 70% of the total population will be done by August 2.
I was reading last week that huge amounts of people never bothered with the second dose.
The UK uptake will be much higher I’d imagine.
Agreed, it will be difficult to convince a sizable proportion of younger people to get vaccinated, and also difficult to convince a sizable number of parents to vaccinate their children.
The intervals are irrelevant to the point you are trying to make on how quickly they will get them out.
The interval is 4 weeks.
How many first doses do you expect in May? 500k?
Then you need 500k second doses in June.
What do you expect then in June? 750k first doses. Grand, you need that in second doses in June and so on and so forth.
It’s going to drag on until September. They have left far too much work to do over the next three months to be hitting those targets.
I think the UK’s target of July is realistic. Ireland’s isn’t.
You made a point on the numbers they can do. Again, that is irrelevant to the intervals.
You keep conflating issues and countries that are separate things.
The U.K. is once again not Ireland.
I don’t think they can do the numbers they claim. They have failed to hit targets they have set.
I’m not conflating it. You are naively throwing disregard to precedent and the data at hand.
Exactly. The UK have met their targets so far, they have delivered on their timelines. Ireland haven’t.
Which is why I think the UK’s timeline of offering a vaccine to anyone who wants it in July is accurate and your contention that Ireland will do the same is naively optimistic. Ireland will likely be two months behind. I’d say September is a more accurate timeline for vaccinating anyone that wants one.
Lads, don’t start another day of this for the love of God.
I think there’s a strong argument that once the vulnerable are vaccinated in the west, the next few months supplies should be donated to India.
I’m not.
I’ve been critical of them.
You are just widely wide of the mark on the numbers that will actually take this and how the programme is going. The mass vaccination centres are working as they are intended with a clear sign of ramping up. The over 60s are being reached quickly, that is clear. Talking about mid June is wild. The point of a mass vaccination programme is to move through the ages quickly and offer it to people, the over 60s are not far from being done.
The initial intention was to have anyone who wanted a dose to get one in the month of June, it’ll end up being kicked out by a month to 6 weeks. All in all we will be a couple of months behind what was intended, nothing controversial in that.
I’d assume a lot of our J&J will go that way. I’m not concerned is the point.
It was concerning when AZ was restricted to over 60s but the change gives more flexibility now such that over 50s in Ireland should he done in the next 4-5 weeks. Pretty much no reason why not to have things all open by then.
And it’s not going to happen.
The interval is extremely important as when this mass ramp up comes it means it 4 weeks times they will have huge amounts of second doses to administer. They have left it too late. Chaps in their 20s and teens who want a vaccine likely won’t be getting it until Aug/Sep. It doesn’t really matter in any case to the virus but in terms of the rollout, vaccinating 80% of the adult population with their fist dose by July won’t happen.
The 4 week interval will scupper that as soon as you ramp it up, it then ties the same amount for second doses four weeks later.
The evidence so far is once you get to a tipping point of about 45% adults having at least one dose, then serious cases and deaths drop like a stone. Israel first and now the UK. The UK hit 45% at the beginning of April, they had one Covid death yesterday.