Is Cohort 7 a handy out for them to use Pfizer/Moderna vaccines to under 50s and get significant chunks done of them before the AZ/J&J stocks replenish?
There won’t be any of that with the over 60s. Their mass vaccination period is at an end. However they get the jab won’t be of too much concern at that point. The 60s who aren’t done by early this week are more than likely the ones who don’t want it or who can’t figure out how the register. They won’t hold back, 50s will get offered doses.
Does being obese put you into cohort 4 or 7? I need to start eating? Is it clinically possible to put on 40kg in 3 weeks?
King size homer
I’ve heard of people in their 60s with appointments this week so must still be a few to go.
So if we have say 30-40k over 60s booked in this week then you are likely all out of AZ vaccines for the 50s until such time as the big delivery comes in which might only be at the end of the month.
That’s the dilemma that they now face. Do they halt the over 50s until that big shipment comes in (a lot of it will also need to be second doses for FLHCW)? I reckon by the end of the first week in June, they will have to have given around 130k second doses of AZ which is going to wipe out an awful lot of that big shipment. J&J isn’t going to make a huge dent in it either as there is likely only got to be somewhere between 50-100k received by the end of May.
1 in 4 50s have already got it according to the ECDC dashboard. There are about 600k 50s in Ireland according to this:
So I don’t think they will have any other option but to go with Pfizer Moderna for the 50s. 450K roughly in that grouping that have not received a dose yet.
By the time the 45-49s come then they might have enough J&J to look after them.
50s will get a mix and match. Slow at first but plenty getting it as part of Cohort 7 too. They’ll want to keep things moving.
It looks like more or less the end for AZ anyway in the rollout. Imagine after this week whatever comes in will largely be used for second doses or held until such time as they are needed. J&J might do some the 40s/50s but expediency is vital with it. They really need to be hitting a min of 3-400k by end of June being received.
There should still be enough for them to give about 100k to over 50s of AZ this month. They need about 100k second doses for AZ next month so I would guess they will carry that amount into the next month.
J&J should be 100k in and put in arms. Maybe 50k for hard to reach, 50k for 50s.
With Pfizer and Moderna, and expected big deliveries to the end of May, more than enough to have over 50s and Cohort 7 done by the first couple of days of June.
Yes I don’t expect many more. Most deliveries for June will be held back for second doses in July.
I know two people in the 39-45ish age brackets called in in last week for theirs. Both asthmatic so I’d say they’d fall into 7
Can lads on the TFK fun run injury table apply for Cohort 7 status?
I also a chap in this who was called the week before last under these grounds.
I’d say these people are most likely being recorded in Cohort 4 as I have heard of plenty of cases anedotally and yet the Cohort 7 grouping only has 2k recorded doses whereas Cohort 4 has over 250k and has seen about 100k or so done in the past fortnight.
That’s why I think Cohort 7 is a complete cod. A lot of the Cohort 4 people are likely fairly spurious themselves.
I also had a look at the ECDC dashboard which is up to date.
By age categories and using the population sizes below:
So by the ECDC table I think the following amount of 1st doses should have been given. The real figure of first doses is about 50k more at 1.327m.
ECDC data is up to Thursday. Might be updated later. Should be 70% or thereabouts for 60s by Friday evening. Around 80% by close of play today.
Says up to the 10th May on their dashboard so they have updated it today but whatever date that actually is until I’m not sure.
That’s when it was updated at- they caveat it that it’s subject to reporting to them by individual countries. If you go to the country data you’ll see that for Ireland is up to Thursday.
The ECDC one is very unreliable though. Do we really believe 100% of over 70s have got the vaccine?
No. I’d say it is more like late 80s/early 90s. I’d say the 60s will probably hit late 70s and you’ll see a few percentiles drop off each age group down from there on.
They are basing it off the same pop numbers the HSE are - total population 4.96m with 481k in 60-69.
They are as reliable as one another. The difference is that HSE don’t bother reporting by age.
But that’s where the confusion is.
The HSE are reporting 104% of people in care and 105% of FLHCWs have been vaccinated.
Because the HSE estimated the numbers in the cohorts. We don’t have good centralised medical records. They have been guessing with Cohort 4 and Cohort 7 too, that’s why the latter is so prone to queue jumping.
Population is never going to be wholly accurate as we haven’t had a census since 2016 and they are estimating. The data is the exact same, just cut differently. The HSE choose not to report by age properly, I suspect it is because of the uncertainty over the cohort numbers and they don’t want to set expectations. The population ones are almost the exact same though- I believe the HSE said there were 482k in the 60-69 categories and the ECDC have 481k.