40-50s tour coming soon, subject to licence
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Curevac is supposed to be nearly there but nothing in yet.
I believe only 60k are due into Ireland by the end of June if approved so minimal impact at this stage.
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@Copper_pipe what do you make of Martin saying 280k a single delivery from Pfizer? Sounds low vs Belgium.
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It seems low alright.
For the week beginning the 24th, I reckon it’ll be about 183710 Pfizer, 32400 Moderna and about 160500 AZ due in. So about 376610 doses altogether.
The AZ delivery for this week was lower than expected. Belgium had expected 82k but got 64,800 instead. That would have meant a delivery of 27810 ish for Ireland.
Based on my above estimate for Pfizer I would have expected the Pfizer delivery in the week beginning the 31st to be about 370k.
What’s not appearing on the forecast above is a delivery for Janssen this week, HLN in Belgium are saying that Belgium are due to get 84K doses of Janssen. If this is the case then Ireland should be in line to get 33600 doses.
So 376610 (from above) and 33600 (potential Janssen) would mean just over 410k doses due in this week.
Do Belgium quote with the additional dose per vial?
In fairness Martin doesn’t seem to be altogether on top of the numbers so I wonder if he was quoting older figures too.
Question I have with all of these doses coming in is if we can use them. I wonder how many 50s are actually left. They should all pretty much have their appointments by this weekend and they’ll have to give them the name of the vaccine they’re getting. I assume we will take some confidence on that AZ delivery and tell them they’re getting those.
We need to sort out this choice this for the 40s and quick.
I don’t think so.
Belgium has 2.33 times the population of Ireland and they have been consistently been getting 2.33 times the amount of AZ and Moderna.
It appears Ireland availed of the full amount of Pfizer but Belgium haven’t. The opposite applies for Janssen. With Belgium getting 2.5 times the amount of Janssen compared to Ireland.
Any chance there was some kind of trade in assignments. Do the combined numbers tally?
Yeah they match up alright
At one point I had the stock level in the country to within 860 doses of the actual based off the Belgium figures 
The mircochip is just taking a while to tune in here guys. Feeling a little be feverish and shivery. My participation in the MHQ/gulag process tomorrow is in doubt
I’d my first shot of moderna during the week, I felt ropey the next day, fine then the day after, sore arm wears off in 2-3 days
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Yeah sore arm after first one was gone quick enough. Bit sorer second time round.
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Did you feel ill / fluey at all?
After first one no. Felt grand. A little after the second one (so far)
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Are we on track for the 80% by end of June?
Not unless they change the rollout plan. A lot of second doses due in the next 5 and a bit weeks.
Are you taking into account that June ends on the 4th of July 
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Fuck me but I did not have a fun night with this vaccine. Felt like as bad a flu as I’ve ever had. Stomach in bits too.
Coming round now but still feel like I’ve a bad hangover.
That’s how I felt after the first Astra Zeneca. I didn’t go on about it though.
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I think they could reach it but vaccine hesitancy and turn ups will rule it out. They will get close though.
Without GP numbers for a week, we went from 18.5% to 45% in a month. We should be on at least 50% entering June so within a month, getting to 75% should be easily achievable. Of the first doses given this month, AZ has been the majority and likely will be 400k before the month is out. Second doses for them are therefore not due until August so the burden of second doses is not massive for June still.
There is an issue with J&J not being used and that AZ won’t be used either for first doses, but what I expect they’ll do is leave less Pfizer in reserve from the middle of the month, as they can start using July deliveries for second doses. A lot more reliance on Pfizer though.
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Reid has confirmed J&J won’t be a factor. They should have pushed for lower with NIAC but it is what it is. Should look to trade if possible.