Fulvio will be standing in a field with planes flying over his head in a month’s time telling us he was right that no one would be flying anywhere this summer 
What?
Don’t think that’s true whatsoever.
They have roughly done maybe a million in the month. It’s a two jab vaccine (bar the small J&J amounts) which would state they have done nowhere near 25% of adults in a month.
You clearly need to some research here as what you are stating is not backed up by anything and it’s inevitable you will be proven badly wrong here.
Tick tock.
Your time is running out and your claims are looking more and more unlikely by each day.
80% of adults with first dose and 60% with 2nd dose is around 5.5m vaccine doses needing to be administered.
If you put in say 300k J&J vaccines used to get there it reduces it 5.2m.
If we put in an estimate of 2.7m vaccines by the end of the month - it leaves 2.5m needed to be administered alone in the month of June.
Some of you really need to actually think about what it is ye are actually trying to say here. It defies any sort of basic logic and does not stand up to scrutiny.
Close of play Monday April 26th.
It’s now close to 50%, ie the guts of 25% of the adult population.
It’s about 1.1m done in the last month, probably closer to 1.2m.
You’re overestimating second doses here. There were minimal AZ second doses this month.
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We don’t know what it is.
We know 2.5m were done Tuesday I think.
So that would mean they have a huge backlog of second doses to now catch up on and unless they change their strategy on spreading first doses out it is going that second doses now become an issue.
So we could have the guts of 1m second doses to give out next month if that’s correct.
I don’t think they will get to 80% and 60%. I think they can get close to 80% but won’t for a variety of reasons.
I think where you are wrong is the age cohorts. You seem to constantly assume that Cohort 4 and 7 are in a vacuum and that 100% of people will take the vaccine. They won’t. 91% of 60-69 have taken it, where are the other 9%? It’s nothing to do with rollout issues, it’s because some can’t or won’t take it. That number will grow as you go down the age cohorts and particularly so as we reach younger foreign national populations that are hard to reach.
Your estimate seems to assume 100% take up and a significant decline in 1st doses administered. It won’t happen, what will happen is what we have just seen with 60-69, 50-59 and 45-49- they will work against daily registrations and supply.
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The ECDC have 47%. That is based on 2.338m administered. We had announced 2.5m announced in the last 48 hours- probably closer to 2.55m now. It’s safe to assume they’ve done a significant number of doses in the last 48 hours as it’s prime vaccine administering days. It’s around 50% at this point, I am quite confident in saying that. Certainly not “well off” as you’ve claimed.
Not really.
There should be 5m vaccines in by the end of the month. I would have my doubts about the ability to see 2m vaccines done next month. You’re looking at >450k per week to do that. There’s a lot of second doses to now give, whether AZ or Pfizer.
I had a look there at the ECDC Vaccine Rollout review.
https://covid19-vaccine-report.ecdc.europa.eu/
Looks like they have Janssen down as first and second doses so if you did a quick =sum on excel you’d be counting them twice. 
I think its 1694261 first doses (Pfizer, Moderna, AZ) 38931 doses of Janssen, and 576042 second doses of Pfizer, Moderna and AZ.
So a total of 2309234 doses given out.
If that is the case and I’d be very dubious.
It means that if 50% of adults have their first dose then there is a huge backlog on second doses which will have to be done in June.
It’s no longer a supply issue anymore. It’s about an issue of the capability of hitting 400k+ on a weekly basis.
That’s a million odd second doses deficit. You could probably say 70% of that is required in June.
Where’s the ceiling in the rollout because there has to be one.
Nope, that’s absolutely how it is. It is the only way your maths works.
There’s over 1m between 18-34 which is about 27% of the adult population in itself. That would mean at 100% take up, we’d be at max 73% with one dose at the end of June. That would represent a big decline in April- May 1st doses administered (I would assume we will get to about 52% by call of play on Monday at the very least). That is certainly possible, but again relies on 100% take up which won’t happen. Every 1% is around 37k doses, so are talking about a 100k plus decline in doses.
If we take say 93% as average take up (so add another couple of percent to the 60s as is currently) you’re talking about nearly 200k of eligible people in that segment not having taken it when eligible. That’s over 60% of the 30-34 category in itself. But again, it will go lower than 93% as the ages decline, particularly at first.
You are relying on two assumptions, one being a significant decline in 1st doses administered and the other being 100% take up. That’s the only way your assumption works.
How many vaccines do you expect they will get out in June, honestly?
Not really.
About 150k of AZ due next month. A significant proportion of the 1st doses administered this month were AZ (about 205k) plus 40k J&J.
Pfizer and Moderna is probably about 450k so far this month (ECDC has it at 342k). If that gets to 550k, there will need to be 700k second doses administered next month.
HSE have announced capacity of 400k, over 4.2 weeks it’s about 1.7m. So per capacity, 1m in first doses could be administered- 27% of the adult population.
Yup.
According to @Copper_pipe there is currently around a 1.1m defecit between first doses and second doses. So we will say around 30% of those are AZ not due within the next 5 weeks and J&J. That still leaves 7-800k vaccines needed for second doses next month.
How many doses do you see being administered next month?
I can only go with what they say. 1.7m.
That’s an average of >400k pw.
So what happens if first week in June they hit 325k, next week it’s 375k. That leaves 500k pw needed for the final two weeks.
What’s the ceiling. Supply is no longer the issue you see, so can they max out their ceiling and can they max out their ceiling without needing a gradual buildup.
The portal is only opening for the 40-44s middle of next week. It’s likely they won’t start vaccinating this cohort until sometime in the w/e 12/6/21.
I would then say that sometime in the w/e 19/6/21 they will open the portal for the 35-39s but won’t start vaccinating them until the w/e 26/6/21. Therefore they won’t be getting near the u35s until July realistically.
The ceiling is 450k apparently.
2.6m doses administered
1.8m first doses and 800k 2nd doses.
Figures given out at the HSE briefing in the past half hour.